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IMF’s Georgieva warns of 'much worse outcome' if Middle East war drags into 2027
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned that inflation is already picking up and the global economy could face a “much worse outcome” if the war in the Middle East drags into 2027 and oil prices hit about $125 a barrel, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Fxstreet
Tue, May 5
Canadian Dollar strengthens as Iran–US tensions lift crude oil prices
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.3620 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reports missiles and drone threats from Iran underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Indonesia: Stable inflation outlook with oil risks – UOB
UOB’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen note Indonesia’s April inflation slowed to 2.42% year-on-year, below expectations but within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target. They highlight post-holiday normalization, contained energy inflation thanks to subsidized fuel, and steady core inflation.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
ECB’s Nagel: June rate hike may be warranted if the inflation outlook does not improve
Joachim Nagel, member of the European Central Bank (ECB) and President of the Bundesbank, spoke in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, on Monday. He said that the longer the Middle East conflict lasts, the greater the risk of high inflation will reimain without ECB intervention.
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Taiwan: Growth momentum and LNG risks – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying upgrades Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.4% from 7.0%, citing stronger-than-expected AI-driven exports and resilient ICT demand. The report notes robust first-quarter GDP and expects quarterly growth to moderate later in 2026.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Fed’s Williams: Inflation likely to be 3% this year
John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York, said in a prepared speech at the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium in New York, United States (US) on Monday, that there is no way to know yet how the Iran war impact will play out for the United States economy.
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
China: Oil shock seen contained – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect robust external demand to support China’s April industrial production and trade, even as services and construction soften. They see higher Oil prices lifting PPI and energy CPI, while headline CPI stays at 1% year-on-year.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Netherlands: Stockpiling supports manufacturing growth – ABN Amro
ABN Amro's Albert Jan Swart notes that Dutch manufacturing is expanding strongly, with the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI jumping to its highest level since 2022 as companies stockpile due to Middle East supply disruptions.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Canada: Trade and jobs seen subdued – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence project a sharp narrowing in Canada’s March international merchandise trade deficit to CAD 1.5 billion, driven by stronger exports on higher West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and autos.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
India: IIP Growth mix signals uneven demand – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu notes that India’s March Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year from 5.2% in February, the weakest in five months, with the eight-core sector contracting and power output softening.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
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