VPG 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：センサー部門の過去最高受注が2027年の成長見通しを後押し

主なポイント

• VPGが発表した2026年第3四半期のGAAP売上高は8,510万ドルとなった。顧客に還元された関税払い戻し金230万ドルを除いた調整後売上高は8,740万ドルとなり、前四半期比で4%増、前年同期比で10%増となった。
• 調整後受注額は1億300万ドルに達し、連結BBレシオ（受注出荷比率）は1.17となった。3セグメントすべてで1.0を上回り、四半期末時点の受注残高は1億5,100万ドルとなった。
• センサー事業の売上高は前年同期比21%増の3,840万ドルとなった。受注額はAI関連インフラおよび航空宇宙・防衛用途向けが牽引し、2四半期連続で過去最高となる5,170万ドルに達した。
• 調整後売上総利益率は前四半期比で39.3%に改善し、調整後EBITDAは820万ドルに増加、調整後フリーキャッシュフローは550万ドルに回復した。
• 経営陣は2026年第4四半期の売上高見通しを8,400万ドル〜9,100万ドルとし、生産能力の拡大に伴い2027年第1四半期の売上高は9,000万ドル以上に達する可能性があると述べた。
• 受注の勢いと受注残高に基づき、経営陣は2027年に10%〜12%の売上成長の可能性があると見込んでいる。ただし、これは生産能力の拡充、顧客の時期、最終市場の状況に左右される。

主要財務データ

事業および業績ハイライト

センサー事業

センサー事業はVPGの主な成長ドライバーとなった。売上高は前四半期比15%増、前年同期比21%増の3,840万ドルとなった。受注額は第2四半期から8%増加し過去最高の5,170万ドルとなり、BBレシオは1.35となった。

半導体の前工程、後工程、プロセス制御装置向け精密抵抗器のほか、高速光ファイバー伝送インフラ向け製品が需要を牽引した。航空電子機器および防衛需要も、既存プログラムおよび次世代プログラムの双方で堅調を維持した。

経営陣は、AI関連需要がセンサー事業の概ね20%〜30%を占めると試算している。この試算には半導体、光ファイバー・データインフラ、およびヒューマノイドロボティクス用途の可能性が含まれている。

ヒューマノイドロボティクスの受注額は約20万ドル、売上高は30万ドルであった。初期顧客の1社は、サプライチェーンの拡大課題により生産ランプアップの開始を第4四半期に延期した。VPGは、第4四半期に受注が緩やかに増加し2027年に向けて加速すると予想しているが、顧客の時期には不確実性が残ることを強調している。

ウェイイング・ソリューション事業

調整後売上高は前四半期比11%減、前年同期比2%減の2,690万ドルとなった。前四半期比での減少は、主にプロセス計量製品における欧州の季節的な低迷を反映している。

調整後受注額は2,860万ドルで、BBレシオは1.06となった。産業用計量および医療用の需要は大体において安定していた。第2四半期に半期に一度の大型受注があった電動アシスト自転車（e-bike）向け受注の減少は、輸送向け需要の好調により相殺された。

メジャメント・システムズ事業

製鉄市場向けDSI熱機械シミュレーションシステムの売上増加に支えられ、売上高は前四半期比10%増、前年同期比8%増となった。KELKの生産は引き続き回復した。

受注額は鉄鋼関連の受注が40%増加したことなどから、前四半期比19%増の約2,220万ドルとなった。自動車衝突安全試験向けのDTS受注額は2026年で最高の水準に達し、航空宇宙・防衛向け受注も引き続き堅調だった。

VPGは2026年の最初の9ヶ月間で420万ドルのコスト削減を達成し、通期での約600万ドルの目標達成に向けて順調に進んでいる。これらの施策は、製造の最適化、自動化、調達の効率化を通じて約2,000万ドルの削減を目指す3ヵ年計画の一環である。

経営陣の業績見通し

VPGは、2026年第3四半期の為替レートが一定であると仮定して、2026年第4四半期の売上高を8,400万ドル〜9,100万ドルと見込んでいる。このガイダンスには、経営陣が損益に中立的と説明している顧客への予想関税払い戻し金は含まれていない。

第4四半期の見通しレンジは、予定されている受注残高の出荷、第3四半期よりも稼働日数が少ないこと、ヒューマノイドロボティクスの顧客の時期に関する不確実性を反映している。同社は特にセンサー事業において、製造要員の採用・研修や設備の追加を継続している。

経営陣は、計画している生産能力の拡大により、2027年第1四半期の売上高は9,000万ドル以上に達する可能性があると述べた。また、1億5,100万ドルの受注残高、継続的なAI関連需要、航空宇宙・防衛の活発な動き、産業市場の回復の初期兆候に支えられ、2027年には10%〜12%の売上成長の可能性があると見込んでいる。

VPGは、2026年通期の事業税率を約45%、設備投資額を1,400万ドル〜1,600万ドルと見込んでいる。

リスクと注視点

• 不利な為替レートにより、第3四半期の調整後営業利益は前年同期比で340万ドル減少し、年初来の営業利益は810万ドル減少した。
• 地域別所得構成の変化により、第3四半期の調整後実効税率は上半期の37%から48%に上昇し、調整後EPSを約0.03ドル押し下げた。
• 顧客が複雑なサプライチェーンの規模を拡大しているため、ヒューマノイドロボティクスの生産時期は依然として流動的である。
• センサー事業の生産能力拡大には、新設備、製造拠点の追加、採用、従業員研修が必要となる。経営陣は、製品の習熟曲線（ラーニングカーブ）に伴い、生産能力とリードタイムの改善には時間がかかると述べた。
• 第4四半期は第3四半期よりも稼働日数が少なく、出荷量の追加的な制約要因となっている。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

経営陣は、事業開発（BD）の受注額が第3四半期に約1,200万ドル、最初の9ヶ月間で3,350万ドルであったことを確認した。VPGは、2026年通期目標である4,500万ドルの達成に向けて順調に進んでいる。

2027年の見通しについて問われた経営陣は、四半期末時点における1億5,100万ドルの受注残高、第3四半期と同水準の第4四半期受注ランレートの予想、継続的なAI関連需要、航空宇宙・防衛の堅調さ、産業市場の回復傾向を挙げた。

生産能力について、VPGは設備の購入、従業員の採用、追加の製造施設での生産拡大を行っていると説明した。経営陣は、これらの取り組みにより、今後の四半期で生産量が増加しリードタイムが短縮されると見込んでいる。

同社はまた、以前延期されていたKELKの受注の一部が第3四半期に納品され、大半は第4四半期に納品される予定であることを確認した。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to the VPG Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Steve Cantor, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Steve Cantor

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to VPG's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our press release and slides are available on our website, vpgsensors.com. An audio recording of today's call will also be available on our website. On the call today, we will be -- today's remarks are governed by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements, and there could be no assurance that the results discussed today, including the targets in our operating model, will be achieved. For a discussion of the risks associated with VPG's operations, please refer to our SEC filings, particularly our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and our other recent SEC filings.

We also present certain GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on this call, and we believe these measures provide useful information about the operating performance of our business and should be considered together with the corresponding GAAP measures. Before beginning the call, I want to note that we received $2.3 million in tariff refunds from the U.S. federal government, and we intend to pass those refunds on to our customers. GAAP net revenue for the third quarter was $85.1 million. Third quarter adjusted net revenue was $87.4 million, excluding $2.3 million of refunds that had no impact on gross profit.

Under GAAP, these refunds are reflected as reductions to revenue and cost of products sold. Unless otherwise noted, all third quarter financial measures discussed today exclude these refunds, including adjusted gross margin. The refunds have no impact on prior periods. Joining me on the call today are Ziv Shoshani, President and CEO; and Bill Clancy, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Ziv for his prepared remarks. You can read off the quarterly presentation. Ziv?

Ziv Shoshani

Thank you, Steve. I will begin with commentary on the third quarter. Bill will then review our financial results and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Moving to Slide 4, third quarter highlights, booking and sales. Our third quarter reflected continued strong demand, improving revenues and margins and ongoing progress in our strategic initiatives. Adjusted revenue was $87.4 million, our highest quarterly level in 3 years, increasing 4% sequentially and 10% year-over-year.

Adjusted orders of $103 million were driven by continued record demand in our Sensors segment from AI-related markets, including semiconductor equipment, data center infrastructure as well as aerospace and defense applications. Bookings from our business development initiatives totaled $11.9 million in the third quarter and $33.5 million year-to-date, keeping us on track to achieve our $45 million full year goal.

Our consolidated book-to-bill ratio was 1.17, marking the eighth consecutive quarter at or above 1.0 and underscoring continued positive demand trends, led by the Sensors book-to-bill ratio of 1.35, all 3 segments achieved ratios above 1.0. This sustained order momentum is driving a growing backlog and increasing our visibility into 2027.

We continue to add manufacturing capacity and personnel to support our growth, particularly in Sensors. Our order momentum in key markets and our growing backlog set the stage for potential revenue growth of 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the annual target rate in our 3-year plan. Adjusted gross margin improved to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter. Third quarter cash from operations was $11.1 million and free cash flow was $5.5 million.

Adjusted EPS of $0.14 reflected an adjusted 48% tax rate compared to the 37% through the first half of 2026, driven by a shift in the geographic mix of income. The higher tax rate reduced adjusted EPS by approximately $0.03 per diluted share. Regarding our operational improvement initiatives, we delivered nearly $4.2 million of cost savings year-to-date and remain on track to achieve approximately $6 million of savings this year.

These actions represent the first phase of our 3-year plan to deliver approximately $20 million of cost reduction initiatives through manufacturing footprint optimization, increased automation and procurement efficiencies across our global supply chain. I'll now review performance by segment.

Moving to Slide 5. Sensors third quarter highlights. Beginning with our Sensors segment, third quarter revenue of $38.4 million grew 15% from the second quarter and 21% from a year ago. The increase from the second quarter primarily reflected higher sales to the test and measurement market. Bookings of $51.7 million remained robust, increasing 8% sequentially to a second consecutive all-time quarterly record. This resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.35.

Demand continued to be driven by investments in AI-related infrastructure. We recorded strong orders for precision resistors sold to semiconductor front-end, back-end and process control equipment manufacturers. Bookings for manufacturers of high-speed fiber optic transmission equipment remained elevated, supporting the continued build-out of data center infrastructure. We saw continued positive trends in avionics and defense applications with sustained demand from both established and next-generation defense programs.

Turning to humanoid robotics. We remain highly optimistic about the long-term opportunity. While the market is still in its early stages, the engineering complexity, demanding performance requirement and the need to scale sophisticated supply chain create an attractive opportunity for VPG. Humanoid-related bookings were approximately $200,000 and sales were $300,000 in the third quarter as our initial customer shifted the start of its production ramp to Q4, citing the challenges of scaling a highly complex supply chain -- we are prepared to support customer planned production volume and now expect orders to increase gradually beginning in the current quarter, with volume accelerating further through 2027.

We also received an investment from this customer to support our capacity expansion related to humanoid, which we view as a solid endorsement of our value proposition and their commitment to VPG as a supplier. Regarding customer #2, discussions continue to progress well and the potential revenue opportunity could be larger than we previously anticipated. We are also supporting several other humanoid robotics customers as they advance from prototype development to commercialization, while expanding our engagement with the additional prospective customers across the market.

Moving to Slide 6, Weighing Solutions third quarter highlights. Turning to our Weighing Solutions segment. Third quarter adjusted revenue of $26.9 million, which excludes $2.3 million of tariff refunds to customers, declined 11% from the second quarter and were down 2% from a year ago. The sequential decline reflected seasonal softness in Europe, mainly for process weighing products.

Adjusted orders of $28.6 million were flat with the second quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06. Trends in the industrial weighing market and the medical market were mostly stable. Bookings declined from -- for consumer e-bike applications following a large semiannual order in the second quarter, which was offset by a higher demand in the transportation market.

I am pleased to note that our products are now standard options for onboard weighing on off-highway heavy use trucks for a leading European manufacturers designed to improve efficiency and safety. These solutions are integrated into the vehicle to measure payload during the loading and operations in a harsh environment such as mining and construction.

Moving to Slide 7. Measurement Systems third quarter highlights. Turning to Measurement Systems. Third quarter revenue increased 10% sequentially and 8% year-over-year. The sequential increase was driven by higher sales of DSI's thermal mechanical simulation test systems for the steel market. KELK production continued to recover from the second quarter. Because these products operate in a demanding environment and play a mission-critical role in optimization yields and productivity for steel products, we continue to focus on execution, product quality and customer service.

Orders of approximately $22.2 million increased 19% sequentially, which reflected a 40% increase in steel-related orders. We also had another strong quarter of DTS as bookings related to automotive crash safety testing reached their highest level of 2026 and orders for aerospace and defense applications remain strong.

Moving to Slide 8, priorities and focus. Our key priorities remain centered on 2 areas: accelerating commercialization and growth and driving operational execution and excellence. On the commercial side, we completed the first phase of our company-wide CRM rollout for the Sensors segment, with deployment across the remaining business planned for the fourth quarter and 2027. We rolled out a system and processes for lead management and opportunity management for Sensors.

And we have initiated targeted marketing programs in the humanoid robotics market. We also refreshed our corporate website and started the first phase of our plan to accelerate and streamline the new product development processes. Operationally, we achieved $4.2 million of our targeted $6 million in cost savings for 2026. We continue to optimize and relocate manufacturing for key products to support our long-term cost and productivity objectives.

At the same time, we are expanding production capacity through adding personnel and equipment at key Sensors facilities. Importantly, our manufacturing and supply chain capabilities are in place to support the initial production ramp for humanoid robotics customers. As we look ahead, given the strong order trends, growing backlog, continued execution on our growth strategies, we see potential to achieve revenue in the first quarter of 2027 of $90 million or better. This supports our potential to grow our revenues 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the targeted annual growth rate in our original 3-year plan.

I will now turn it over to Bill Clancy. Bill?

William Clancy

Thank you, Ziv. Referring to Slide 9 and the reconciliation tables in the slide deck, third quarter 2026 GAAP net revenues was $85.1 million after $2.3 million of tariff refunds passed through to customers with no impact on gross margin. Excluding these refunds, adjusted revenue was $87.4 million. Adjusted gross margin improved sequentially to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter, excluding $141,000 of start-up costs related to expanded production capacity. This was an improvement from 38.6% in the second quarter.

Sequentially by segment, Sensors adjusted gross margin increased to 32.6%, primarily due to higher volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. Weighing Solutions adjusted gross margin of 34.6% declined mainly due to lower volume. Measurement Systems gross margin increased to 56.5%, primarily reflecting higher volume and a favorable product mix.

Moving to Slide 10. Our third quarter operating margin was 3.2%. Excluding the aforementioned start-up costs as well as restructuring, stock-based compensation and severance costs, adjusted operating margin was 4.9%. Selling, general and administrative expense for the third quarter was $31.2 million or 35.7% of revenue, down from second quarter levels due to lower sales commissions and reduced incentive compensation accruals.

Foreign exchange rates continued to represent a significant headwind to profitability. Unfavorable exchange rates reduced third quarter adjusted operating profit by $3.4 million compared with the prior year period. Year-to-date, unfavorable foreign exchange has reduced operating profit by $8.1 million. GAAP net earnings were $559,000 or $0.04 per diluted share. Adjusted net earnings were $1.8 million or $0.14 per diluted share. As Ziv noted earlier, the GAAP tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was significantly higher than the run rate through the first half of the year. For full year 2026, we are assuming an operational tax rate of approximately 45%.

Moving to Slide 11. We also made meaningful sequential progress in EBITDA and cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.2 million or 9.4% of revenue from $5.2 million or 6.5% of revenue in the second quarter. Capital expenditures were $5.6 million in the third quarter and $10.6 million for the first 9 months of 2026. For full year 2026, we expect CapEx of approximately $14 million to $16 million.

We improved receivable collections during the quarter, which drove adjusted free cash flow to $5.5 million, a $6.9 million sequential improvement from negative $1.4 million in the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, cash was $80.9 million and long-term debt was $15.7 million, resulting in net cash of approximately $65 million. Regarding the outlook, for the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect net revenues of $84 million to $91 million, assuming constant third quarter 2026 exchange rates.

Our guidance excludes expected fourth quarter tariff refunds to customers, which are profit neutral. In summary, order momentum remains strong, led by record demand in Sensors and continued strength in AI-related markets. Our financial performance is improving with sequential gains in adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow while we continue to execute our cost reduction initiatives. And our growing backlog, expanding capacity and commercial execution gives us increased visibility into 2027, supporting our view that revenue growth can exceed the annual target in our 3-year plan.

With that, we will open the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Jaeson Schmidt at Lake Street Capital.

質疑応答

Jaeson Schmidt

Just curious if you could disclose what new business development revenue was in Q3? And I guess relatedly, are you still on track to hit that $45 million goal for the year?

Ziv Shoshani

Yes. So yes, we did report a BD for Q3, the BD contribution is $12 million in orders. And for the first 9 months, it's $33.5 million, and we are on track to hit our $45 million target for 2026.

Jaeson Schmidt

Okay. Perfect. And then looking at 2027, obviously, you guys feel pretty confident on next year. Just curious if you could rank order the growth drivers that are giving you the confidence in the '27 outlook.

Ziv Shoshani

So as we look into 2027, first, we see a very solid backlog. For the end of this quarter, we are running at a backlog of $151 million. The expectation is that the order run rate for Q4 will be similar to the third quarter, given the business environment. We do see a continuation in -- from a demand standpoint from our end markets regarding AI-related infrastructure and applications as well as AMS. We do see also some signs in the industrial market in terms of recovery. Therefore, we are optimistic regarding our projection for 2027, which we expect to be 10% to 12% higher revenues in respect to 2026.

Operator

We'll move next to Josh Nichols at B. Riley Securities.

Josh Nichols

Just curious, like looking -- the backlog, the order activity has been exceptionally strong. You're assuming 4Q is kind of similar to 3Q and then there's a nice ramp assumed in 1Q and beyond. What's the right way to think about that wider revenue range that you're giving for 4Q? And what are kind of the puts and takes that would get you potentially to the higher end of that range? Is it order timing on things like humanoids or other parts of the core business like Sensors?

Ziv Shoshani

So if we are looking at the Q4 revenues, our Q4 outlook reflects really our aged backlog and the timing expected to be shipped in Q4, but it also takes into account the number of working days in Q4, which is less than Q3. We are also looking at -- we do continue to hire and train additional manufacturing personnel to increase our manufacturing production, mainly in the Sensors segment.

So all in all, the Q4 revenue projection is based on the backlog, number of working days, while also we increased the output per day. Based on our projected capacity increase, we do believe that we will be able to reach the $90 million or higher in Q1 in respect to revenues. And I'm sorry, what was your other question?

Josh Nichols

I was just curious because the range for 4Q was also a bit wider than you normally give. Normally, it's around $5 million.

Ziv Shoshani

We did give larger ranges in the past. I didn't thought this is a higher range than in the past. I would say that, as you said, there is a certain volatility regarding the humanoid business given the fact that the expected -- the supply chain is more complicated from our customer's standpoint, the supply chain is more complicated than expected. But this is part of the -- you can call it, of the buffer volatility that we also account in our range.

Josh Nichols

Got it. That makes sense. And then last question for me. I mean, the sensors momentum has been exceptionally strong, another quarter, record bookings north of $51 million. I'm just curious how you're thinking about -- given the influx of orders about your capacity lead times and the ability of the company to really convert that backlog into revenue in a timely manner.

Ziv Shoshani

So naturally, given the sizable order intake, we had to place order to increase capacity equipment as well as hiring more people. In addition to that, we are setting, I would say, more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support the higher capacity. So it takes time given the learning curve and the complexity of the product that we are producing. But the expectation is that in the -- I would say that in the coming quarter, we are going to reduce the lead time and increase our capacity as we expand also in our other manufacturing facility.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We'll move next to John Franzreb at Sidoti.

John Franzreb

Ziv, I'm kind of curious, given how much AI infrastructure markets are driving demand, do you have a sense of how much that is of the revenue and/or booking profile?

Ziv Shoshani

We didn't provide any specific information regarding the Sensor segment. We can -- we did identify that all the -- our semiconductor business, all our fiber optics data and potentially also our humanoid business, they are all AI related. I think that at this point in time, I could estimate that -- and by the way, in addition to that, I would like to state that we have also a very solid demand avionics, military and space business. But if we speak about specifically about the AI, I would say that at this point in time, a rough estimation would be around 20% to 30%.

John Franzreb

20% to 30% of the Sensors segment or company-wide?

Ziv Shoshani

No, no, no. Of the Sensors segment.

John Franzreb

And in the second quarter, there was a KELK order that was deferred at the time we say in the second half of the year. Was that order fulfilled in the third quarter? Or is there still some remaining that's going into the fourth?

Ziv Shoshani

So you are correct. Some of the order has been fulfilled, but the main part will be delivered in Q4 this quarter.

John Franzreb

That's good to hear. And one, I guess, last question. How are the -- just a point of clarity for me, how are the bookings impacted by the tariff refunds? I understand how the revenue works, but it looks like there's a footnote in the presentation about bookings.

William Clancy

Yes, John. So the way we do our calculation, it's always the opening backlog and then plus order less -- I mean -- so basically, we back into the order numbers just because the backlog is fixed. So it's just a mathematical calculation.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we have no further questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve for closing remarks.

Steve Cantor

Before concluding, I want to note that we will be participating in the ROTH Conference this month and the Sidoti Conference in December, and you can contact me for more information about those. We look forward to updating you next quarter. Thank you all, and have a great day.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.