ザ・リアルリアル（REAL）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：過去最高のGMV、マージン拡大、見通し上方修正

主要要点

• The RealRealは、2026年第3四半期のGMV（流通取引総額）が前年同期比23%増の6億4,200万ドル、売上高が同19%増の2億600万ドルとなり、ともに過去最高を記録したと発表しました。
• 注文数は15%増加し、平均注文単価は8%増の629ドルとなりました。過去12カ月間のアクティブバイヤー数は13%増の115万人を超えました。
• 調整後EBITDAは1,700万ドル（売上高比率8.3%）に達しました。マーケティング投資の増加があったものの、オペレーション、テクノロジー、販管費（SG&A）の効率化により、マージンは前年同期から290ベースポイント拡大しました。
• フリーキャッシュフローは1,130万ドルとなりました。第3四半期末時点の現金・現金同等物および拘束性預金の残高は1億4,500万ドルでした。
• 経営陣は2026年通期の業績見通しを引き上げ、GMVを25億8,500万〜26億ドル、売上高を8億600万〜8億1,000万ドル、調整後EBITDAを7,110万〜7,260万ドルと予想しています。
• 主要な委託者、信託・遺産関連、事業者、海外ベンダー、実店舗など、幅広いチャネルで商品の供給が拡大しました。一方、自社システムのAthenaは、年内までに全商品の約50%を処理する計画通りに進展しています。

主要財務データ

事業およびオペレーションの業績

顧客エンゲージメントは一段と深まりました。5年以上アクティブなバイヤーが第3四半期のGMVの47%を占めたほか、新規バイヤーは20%以上増加しました。Z世代のバイヤーは2023年以降60%以上増加しています。経営陣によると、過去12カ月間の委託者の52%がプラットフォーム上で購入も行い、新規委託者の44%が既存バイヤー層から流入しました。

出品供給量は複数のチャネルに支えられ、2桁のペースで拡大しました。信託・遺産関連チームが取り扱った数量は前年同期比で35%増加しました。日本のドロップシップベンダー・ネットワークは前四半期の2社から7社に拡大し、2026年中にドロップシップチャネルを通じて1億ドル相当以上の商品を供給したと発表しました。

テクノロジーと自動化が、引き続きマージン拡大の核心となっています。Athenaは、2025年末時点の35%に対し、年末までに全商品の約50%を処理する見込みです。経営陣は、同システムによって商品1点あたり数ドルの処理コスト削減が続いていると説明しました。

パースアンボイ鑑定センターの自動倉庫システム（ASRS）は、対象商品の1時間あたりピックアップ数を3倍に引き上げました。グーグルと共同開発した対話型ショッピング体験「Ask TRR」が稼働を開始しており、初期利用者の1取引あたり支出額は20%高くなっています。また、刷新されたセラー向けUI/UXにより、登録完了率が30%以上向上しました。

経営陣による業績見通し

経営陣は、通期の調整後EBITDAマージンが2025年から約280ベースポイント改善すると見込んでいます。また、年間約200〜300ベースポイントの改善を背景に、中期的には15%〜20%の調整後EBITDAマージン目標を維持しています。

The RealRealはまた、1億5,000万ドルのタームローンと2,500万ドルの回転信用枠により、優先担保付き社債のリファイナンスを実施しました。いずれも2033年10月に満期を迎えます。タームローンの利率はSOFR＋5.75%で、純レバレッジに応じてSOFR＋5.5%まで引き下げられる可能性があります。経営陣は年間約400万ドルの支払利息削減を見込んでいます。

リスクと注視点

高価格帯商品へのプロダクトミックスのシフトにより、第3四半期のテイクレートは前年同期比で約110ベースポイント低下しました。売上総利益率は74.9%に達したものの、経営陣は配送コストにおいて一時的な調整による好影響があったことを指摘し、今後は上半期の配送コスト水準がより標準的になると述べました。同社は売上総利益率が73%〜75%の範囲にとどまると予想しています。

商品構成が中価格帯へシフトしたことで、平均注文単価の伸びは第2四半期の13%から第3四半期には8%へと減速しました。経営陣は顧客による価格抵抗は見られないとしており、第4四半期の成長についても注文数と平均注文単価のバランスが維持されると見込んでいます。

自立型AIコマース（Agentic Commerce）のトラフィックは、従来の検索と比べると依然として小規模ですが、経営陣は拡大傾向にあると述べました。同社は、直接の顧客体験を保護しつつ、自社のカタログをサードパーティ製AIエージェントと接続する方法の検証を続けています。

四半期ごとのマージン拡大は、投資の時期やそのリターンの発生タイミングによって変動する可能性があります。経営陣は、成長のための支出と中長期的な収益性目標の達成に向けた進捗との均衡を図ると説明しました。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

• 粗利益率：経営陣は、60ベースポイントのマージン拡大の主因として、89.3%という安定した委託販売マージンおよび配送関連の好適な調整を挙げました。また、標準的な粗利益率の見通しとして73%〜75%を維持しました。
• 成長の要因内訳：第3四半期のGMV成長の約4分の3は注文数の増加によるものでした。経営陣は注文数と平均注文単価の健全なバランスを見込んでおり、第4四半期も第3四半期と同様の傾向になると予測しています。
• 供給源の多角化：同社は、信託・遺産関連、事業者、ポップアップイベント、実店舗、海外ドロップシップベンダーを成長チャネルとして強調しました。このアプローチは、特定の供給源への依存度を低減することを目的としています。
• 自動化によるコスト削減：経営陣は、Athenaによるコスト削減効果が処理量の増加に伴って拡大すると見込んでおり、将来的にはほぼすべての商品に対象を広げる余地があると考えています。オペレーションとテクノロジーの改善により、第3四半期には約260ベースポイントのレバレッジ効果がもたらされました。
• キャッシュ創出：第3四半期末時点の年初来営業キャッシュフローは約1,000万ドルでした。経営陣は、季節的な繁忙期である第4四半期に大幅な増加を見込んでいますが、通期のフリーキャッシュフローの見通しは開示しませんでした。
• バランスシート：新しいタームローンは、金利13%の既存債務を借り換えるものです。経営陣は、中期的には総レバレッジを1億5,000万ドル以下に削減することを目指していると述べました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Michael, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to The RealReal Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Emily Gacka, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

Emily Gacka

Thank you, operator. Joining me today to discuss our results for the period ended September 30, 2026, are Chief Executive Officer and President, Rati Levesque; and Chief Financial Officer, Ajay Gopal. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

Our actual results may differ materially from those suggested in such statements. You can find more information about these risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our operating results in the company's most recent Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

Today's presentation will also include certain non-GAAP financial measures, both historical and forward-looking. We have provided reconciliations for historical non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release, which is available on our Investor Relations website.

I would like to turn the call over now to Rati Levesque, Chief Executive Officer of The RealReal.

Rati Levesque

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Q3 was another record quarter for -- The RealReal, with all-time quarterly highs across GMV, revenue and orders, reflecting the strength of our business and our continued focus on disciplined execution and profitable growth. We delivered GMV growth of 23% with adjusted EBITDA margin up 290 basis points versus last year.

Revenue grew 19% year-over-year. Trailing 12-month active buyers accelerated, up 13% year-over-year, and those buyers placed 15% more orders, our strongest order growth since 2022. These results point to a resilient customer base buying more across a range of price points. Our Q3 execution gives us the confidence to raise our full year outlook today.

Underlying our results is a fundamental change in how people shop for luxury fashion, and our purpose-built platform is helping to drive it. Increasingly, customers are starting their journey with us and engaging well beyond the transaction to discover what to buy, to track what items are worth, to decide what to sell and then to discover again. That is the new operating system for luxury ownership, and we are building it.

Entering the year, we said 2026 would be the year our advantages begin to compound. Three quarters in, you can see it across our business. First, we are deepening our community engagement. Second, we are unlocking supply and accelerating our flywheel. And third, we are accelerating innovation and efficiency through technology.

Let's start with deepening our community engagement. Every year, we add a new cohort of customers who make us a long-term part of how they own luxury. In the third quarter, 47% of our GMV came from buyers who have been with us for five years or longer. And at the same time, new buyers grew over 20%.

Across our broad customer base, order values and units per order are up, and we're seeing strong growth across categories and price points. Gen Z is our fastest-growing cohort with buyers up more than 60% since 2023. They care about trust, authenticity and community, and those are all at the core of what we offer. They are prewired for resale with Gen Z already making up 4 in 10 secondhand sellers across the U.S. according to a 2026 report by Bank of America.

Increasingly, we see them graduate onto The RealReal as buyers and consignors and we are built to grow with them. Because of the depth of our catalog, we are as relevant to someone at 25 as we are to someone over 50. As the customer style evolves, we evolve with it. We see what people buy, what they sell and how they search at scale. This gives us data, expertise and authority to have a clear view on style.

And in Q3, we put it to work. In August, we published our annual resale report. In addition to searching by brand, our customers are looking for a designer's name, specific collection or a particular year. Vintage has become a category in its own right with demand up more than 400% since 2020.

This month, we also published Real Style, our book about discovering personal style and building a wardrobe with intention. More than a book, it reflects our point of view. Style is personal, great wardrobes evolve over time, and resale is an essential part of the luxury life cycle.

Second, turning to unlocking supply and accelerating our flywheel. This year, we diversified how we source supply, strengthening the core, but also adding layers around it, trust and estates, partnerships, contractors, international vendors and our retail stores, resulting in double-digit supply growth in the quarter.

Our core differentiator is our sales team and the relationships they build. We've invested in the team, reshaping how it's structured and how it works with our diverse consignor base. We are testing a targeted approach. One group is focused on attracting new consignors to The RealReal and a second works with repeat consignors who engage more often and bring more of their closets each time.

Beyond the core, the new layers are already showing strength. Our trust and estates team delivered 35% more units in Q3 than a year ago, and we are building partnerships with organizations that give us access to new consignors. We also expanded our contractor program into markets our team does not currently cover.

And we grew our Japanese dropship vendor network to seven, up from two last quarter. We opened a new store in Boston in October, and our Los Angeles store in Glendale is next. During the quarter, we also hosted pop-up events in test markets, averaging nearly $1 million per market in supply in a single weekend.

Our diversified approach is working. In the third quarter, the number of consignors who sold with us grew double digits with 44% of new consignors coming from our buyer base, highlighting the strong network effects powering our flywheel.

And finally, as a tech-enabled marketplace, we are accelerating innovation and efficiency through technology. Our platform is built on the largest authenticated luxury data set in the world. 15 years, more than 55 million items, over 100 attributes on each. Accelerated by AI, that data is helping us innovate faster than we ever have.

On the consignor side, our new seller experience is one example. Our product teams ran weekly experiments throughout the summer, iterating at a pace we could not have sustained previously, and our seller sign-up completion rates are up over 30% with the new experience. Next year, drawing on the same data that powers Athena, we expect My Closet to enable a customer to send us a photo for a few words about an item to add it to their closet and get an estimate of what it's worth.

Shifting to the buyer side. We lead when consumers turn to AI to look for pre-owned luxury. On our platform, Ask TRR, our conversational shopping experience built in partnership with Google is now live. Customers describe what they want and receive a personalized results curated from more than 1 million one-on-one items. Adoption is still building and our early adopters spend 20% more per transaction.

On Agentic Commerce, as customers test Agentic shopping, we are building technology and structuring our data to interface with these agents. Every item in our catalog is authenticated, attributed and priced in a form those platforms can read and recommend. We believe we are well positioned to capitalize on this evolving trend.

Within operations, we brought AI into customer service. Some routine requests like initiating return can now be handled from start to finish through our tools, which means faster answers for customers and more time for our team to spend on the issues that need human judgment. Athena remains on track to handle nearly 50% of all items by the end of the year, and we are extending it into high-value fashion this quarter.

And in September, our automated storage and retrieval system successfully went live in our Perth Amboy authentication center ahead of schedule. When an item sells, a robot retrieves it and it moves through automated packing and shipping. For items in the ASRS system, this has tripled the number of units picked per hour, allowing us to process growing volumes with minimal incremental costs. It is initiatives like these that drive continued operations and technology leverage in our results and are expected to shorten the time to launch and ship products while pulling multiple dollars per unit out of our processing costs.

In closing, Q3 shows what we have been building toward, growth and profitability moving together and advantages that compound. At the center of all of it are our customers who see their closets as a portfolio of assets to be tracked, managed and sold and increasingly, the RealReal is where that happens. Before I turn it over to Ajay, I want to thank our team for a quarter in which we delivered results and built for the future at the same time. Doing both at once is what a first-class team looks like. To everyone at The RealReal, thank you. You are why our consignors and buyers trust us. And you are why I'm so confident in what comes next.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ajay.

Ajay Gopal

Thank you, Rati. Good afternoon, everyone. Q3 was a strong quarter with accelerating top line growth, expanding margins and meaningful cash generation. Q3 GMV of $642 million increased 23% year-over-year and accelerated to more than 40% on a two-year stacked basis, reflecting a healthy balance between units and price. Orders grew 15% and average order value was $629, up 8% year-over-year.

Total revenue of $206 million increased 19%, with consignment revenue up 18% and direct revenue up 19% -- trailing 12-month active buyers exceeded 1.15 million, up 13% year-over-year. Customer engagement continues to deepen with 52% of our consignors during the trailing 12 months also making purchases on the platform, which we believe is a meaningful signal of the platform's compounding network effects.

In the quarter, we continue to see strong flywheel trends with 44% of new consignors coming from our buyer base, a direct result of the investments Rafi described in how we attract, engage and retain both sides of our marketplace. Our Q3 take rate of 36.8% was down approximately 110 basis points year-over-year due to the ongoing mix shift towards higher-value items.

Sequentially, compared to Q2, take rate increased 90 basis points. Our model is designed to generate strong unit economics across a wide range of products and price points. We can move with our customers wherever they transact. Gross margin of 74.9% expanded approximately 60 basis points year-over-year. Gross profit of $154 million was up $25 million versus last year. Total operating expenses leveraged approximately 440 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong leverage in ops and tech and SG&A, partially offset by investments in marketing.

As the leader in luxury retail, we are investing to drive growth and increase our market share. We are seeing strong returns from these investments reflected in buyer quality, customer lifetime value and brand awareness. In Q3, marketing investments resulted in approximately 70 basis points of year-over-year deleverage.

Operations and technology leveraged approximately 260 basis points year-over-year, reflecting the impact of Athena on track to process nearly 50% of all items by year-end. And our ASRS system now live at Perth Amboy is already delivering faster throughput and efficiency gains. Within SG&A, we delivered approximately 240 basis points of year-over-year leverage, unlocking supply and benefiting from fixed cost discipline.

Together, this drove adjusted EBITDA of $17 million or 8.3% of revenue, expanding 290 basis points year-over-year and coming in above the top end of our prior guidance range. We ended Q3 with $145 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash. Q3 free cash flow was $11.3 million. For the first time, we exited the third quarter with positive year-to-date operating cash flow, historically a fourth quarter milestone for us.

With Q4 representing our seasonally strongest period for both revenue and cash generation, we expect full year operating cash flow to step up meaningfully from where we stand today. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $13.7 million. We continue to anticipate full year CapEx on PP&E within 2% to 3% of total revenue.

Subsequent to quarter end, we refinanced our senior secured notes with a new $150 million term loan and $25 million revolving credit facility, both maturing in October 2033. We expect this transaction to reduce interest expense by approximately $4 million annually, and it extends our maturity profile.

More broadly, over the last two years, we have lowered total debt by more than $80 million. With consistent adjusted EBITDA growth and a cash-efficient model that converts that growth into strong free cash flow generation, we believe we are well positioned to reduce total leverage to $150 million or lower in the medium term. With Q3 results above expectations and supply momentum and buyer engagement continuing to compound, we are raising our full year outlook.

For the fourth quarter, we expect GMV of $720 million to $735 million, representing approximately 17% to 19% growth year-over-year. Revenue is expected to be between $218 million and $222 million or approximately 12% to 14% growth. Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $27.5 million to $29 million, representing a margin of approximately 12.8% at the midpoint. For the full year, we now expect GMV of $2.585 billion to $2.6 billion, representing approximately 21% to 22% growth year-over-year.

Revenue is expected to be between $806 million and $810 million or approximately 16% to 17% growth. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $71.1 million to $72.6 million, representing a margin of approximately 8.9% at the midpoint, an improvement of approximately 280 basis points versus 2025. And we remain on the path to our medium-term 15% to 20% adjusted EBITDA margin target.

In closing, Q3 marks a meaningful step in TRR's evolution, record GMV, record revenue, positive free cash flow and a stronger balance sheet. We enter Q4 with clear momentum, and I want to thank the entire RealReal team for an outstanding quarter.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our question comes from Anna Glaessgen from B. Riley Securities.

質疑応答

Anna Glaessgen

I'd like to start with gross margin. It was nice to see the step-up in year-over-year expansion in spite of the compression in take rate. Wondering if you could share some perspective on the moving pieces there, particularly we saw a nice benefit in shipping year-over-year.

Ajay Gopal

Ana, thanks for the question. Yes, we're pleased with our gross margin results in Q3. We delivered 74.9%, which was up 60 basis points year-over-year. I think at the core of this, this is -- it's driven by consignment margins, which were 89.3% and continue to be fairly stable when you look at that trend earlier in the year.

Shipping had some onetime adjustments that sort of propped up that margin. I think on a go-forward basis, the rate we've seen in the first half is more representative of where we are likely to be. It's for us, gross margins, we expect it to be within the range of 73% to 75% on an ongoing basis. And in Q3, we came pretty close to the high end of that range.

Anna Glaessgen

Great. And then turning to the growth that we saw, we saw a shift to be more weighted towards order flow, which accelerated nicely in the quarter. Wondering if you could share your perspective going forward, if you expect the balance to be more so driven by this order growth and what you can share from the new buyers that came into the model this quarter?

Ajay Gopal

Yes. Thank you for that question. So Q3 GMV was up 23%. And you're right, we saw about 3/4 of it coming from order volume. Orders were up 15%, and this was actually a high point for us in terms of order growth. We expected the shift. We expected to start to see it move towards volume, and it's playing out in line with those expectations. I think we're encouraged by how when you look at our performance in 2026. We've seen the mix, maintain a healthy balance, but shift between units, between orders and average order value.

And we have demonstrated that we can grow both top line and continue to expand margins as we work through those shifts. And it's really a testament to our market-based model where we can quickly pivot to wherever our consumer preferences are shifting and bring in the right kind of supply to meet that demand.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Altschwager from Baird.

Mark Altschwager

I wanted to ask also on margin. Jay, you expanded EBITDA margin 290 basis points in Q2 and again in Q3. I think the high end of the fourth quarter guide implies something closer to 180. I was hoping you could just talk us through kind of what's holding back the fourth quarter relative to the recent pace and also how we should think about the margin algorithm heading into 2027.

Ajay Gopal

Yes. Thanks for the question, Mark. Q3 margins expanded -- adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 290 basis points, fairly consistent with what we saw in Q2. You heard us talk about how we see the business getting to an EBITDA margin range of 15% to 20% over the medium term. And in that sort of in building towards that, we expect to add between 200 to 300 basis points every year.

Our guidance for 2026 contemplates that we would end the year adding 280 basis points of margin at the midpoint. So very much in the range of that 200 to 300 basis points. Q4 -- quarter-to-quarter, this is going to change. It just depends on the timing of our investments and when we start to see the returns. So really, we are focused on making sure that we continue to balance growth with profitability and deliver the path to that 15% to 20% margins in the medium term.

Mark Altschwager

Okay. And maybe a follow-up for Ajay, just on Agentic commerce. As you structure the catalog for third-party shopping agents, how do you think about the economics of those relationships? And how do you keep the buyer coming back to The RealReal rather than going to the agent?

Rati Levesque

Yes. Thanks for the question. So we see Agentic as kind of another tool, right, to kind of keep the buyer in. We're always looking at the buyer experience end-to-end. For us, we're testing and learning right now for sure. The Agentic traffic is still pretty small share relative to traditional search, but I'll say it's growing.

And we're, I'll say, well positioned because of the depth of products that we have and the depth of data when you think of one-for-one items, hundreds of attributes behind each item is why we show up so prominently in AI search today, but it's an area of increasing focus for us.

So we're really focused on building for both sides, making sure AI agents find us and making the on-site -- our own on-site experience smarter for buyers to come to us directly. So think about being proactive about how the customer behavior and preferences may just kind of shift over time. But at the end of the day, it's about figuring out how to be open to this test and learn while protecting our own experience as well.

Operator

Our next question comes from Marvin Fong from U.S. Bancorp.

Marvin Fong

I'd love to ask about the growth in the consignor base, the 11% growth you cited. I can't recall if you've mentioned this before as a data point, but it was a very good growth. Just love to kind of put that in greater context. How is 11% look kind of compared to what we've been doing in kind of prior quarters? And can you also kind of just talk about your outlook in terms of your ability to continue to grow the consignor base and your acquisition costs to accomplish that?

Rati Levesque

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question, Marvin. So first, what we shared was the number of active consignors sold with us grew double digits actually in Q3. I'm not sure where the 11% specifically came from. But the double-digit growth, quite healthy, in line, really excited about that progress.

But I think what's most exciting there is that the growth is coming from multiple channels simultaneously. So think about these channels and more of them really focused on diversifying our channels, each reinforcing the others. So now there's no single channel or no single point of failure, and that's what makes the supply engine more durable as we continue to scale and continue to grow.

So like I said, we don't just see this as adding more supply channels, but building a system where each channel makes the other stronger. it's a compounding system. So think about our core business, for example, we moved, like I said, from a more generalist model to focus on reps that can go deeper with the customer, really important that human connection and that relationship that we build there.

We've also launched a contractor program. So think about fashion stylists, closet organizers, people with deep networks, building density in markets around our sales team that may not cover now, which just amplifies word of mouth. Another channel would be trust and estates, working with trade shows, auction houses and events, think multi-thousand dollar consignments that come in.

We saw trust and estates delivering 35% more units this year. So gaining great traction. Our stores is always a piece of that channel mix. seeing really great halo and continue to see that meaningfully. And then last, drop ship. So we talked a little bit about that in the past. That's starting to become more meaningful, onboarding not just Japanese vendors, but European vendors as well, so high-value watches, handbags, jewelry. And so by the end of the year, we'll actually be -- have launched over $100 million of supply in this channel. So excited about the progress of diversifying our channel mix here.

Marvin Fong

Got it. Yes. And you're right. Yes, jotted down that too fast if you lost double digits. So thank you for correcting that. And then a question on AOV down sequentially. I think that actually kind of fits with kind of normal seasonality. But can you just kind of comment, we did see the take rate kind of come back up. So in terms of like the product mix, we kind of see that as maybe higher value items kind of like returning more to an in-line historical mix, things like handbags and watches, kind of just comment on the trends there?

Ajay Gopal

Yes. Thanks for that question, Mavin. You're right. We saw growth in average order values slow down a bit, but they were still up 8%. So a pretty healthy number in terms of still continuing to go up as represented in our shift. I also think you're right on the seasonality.

We -- in Q3, our average order values tend to come in slightly lighter because of just the seasonal mix of what sells. And then in Q4, we see that go the other way as more and more interest grows for holiday shopping and resale. So this is fairly consistent with our -- with the changes in the mix that we would expect to see on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

Operator

Our next question comes from Bobby Brooks from Northland Capital Markets.

Robert Brooks

So kind of following up on Marvin's piece of the consignor growth, a little bit different edge though, is really nice growth you talked about on both new buyers as well as the consignors, but just curious to unpack that a little bit more. Are you seeing any in the trends that you might be seeing?

Like is AOV from new buyers following the same trend as overall business? And curious what are the typical categories you see as someone's first consignment? Does that greatly vary between a buyer flipping to becoming a consignor versus someone brand new coming into your network? Just really kind of curious to hear more insights there.

Rati Levesque

Yes. Maybe I'll start, and I'll let Ajay weigh in as well. So yes, we're happy to see the progress on both buyers and consignors, the growth there. But really, it's about looking at the full experience end-to-end for the buyer and consignor. We have 45 million members and growing active buyers who are increasingly becoming consignors.

We're really focused on the quality of buyers and consignors we're bringing in. And then looking at those new cohorts, what gets me excited is that we're seeing them more engaged with us. They're becoming more engaged with our platform, whether that's buying more in the first purchase, whether that's retention of those newer cohorts and so forth. And that's, again, because we're really focused on the experience and that end-to-end experience for the consignor while still continuing to build trust and community.

Ajay Gopal

Yes. Thanks, Rati. The only thing I would add there is we're also seeing really strong progress on Gen Z buyers. They are up more than 60% over three years. And we see these buyers coming into our platform, graduating to The RealReal as we like to refer to them. They're prewired for participating in resale. They move very naturally between buying and selling, and the relationship continues to mature and deepen as they gain more experience on the platform.

Robert Brooks

Got it. And then just excited to hear kind of the expand the steps that you've taken in growing drop ship a little bit more. I think on that, you mentioned $100 million. Is that like by year-end? Or is that -- and is that GMV? But just kind of curious to hear a little bit more of like what that -- what the next year or so looks like on expansion of drop shipping and just adding more international sellers onto the platform?

Rati Levesque

Yes. Thanks, Bobby, for the question. Yes. So we -- over $100 million launched this year. We probably won't get in the habit of sharing channel numbers, but I wanted to make sure that you understood that it was a meaningful amount, making some good progress.

I think the real thing to take away is focused on drop ship. We'll continue to expand our international partners there. We think that there is meaningful business here over the medium term. But really, it's about diversifying the mix of supply. And like I said, no one point of failure as we think about like trust in the states and contractor programs, partnerships we're seeing some really great traction in all of these key areas for ourselves.

Robert Brooks

Terrific. And just last one for me. In the prepared remarks, it seemed like you're leaning a little bit more into like the -- like reshaping the sales force, luxury managers and kind of investments into them. Just curious to hear kind of what that's looked like aside from the smart sales tool initiative that you guys rolled out a few quarters ago to help folks kind of plan out their day more efficiently.

Rati Levesque

Yes. So on the sales side, yes, we restructured some of the sales organization to again focus on the right kind of supply. But with the flywheel that we have in our business, it's also focusing on the right buyers that we bring to the platform upfront. So we're getting smarter about those quality buyers and consignors that we're bringing in.

And think about -- we talked about conversational search and our partnership with Google, for example, it's driving higher conversion, deeper buyer engagement, but now they're more likely to become a consignor. So we're really leveraging an expanding Ask TRR. We're leveraging Athena item enrichment to enhance our listings, starting with like occasion and trend information.

And these results, these AI results deliver higher quality listings so that the consignor can get more for their item. But it also improves discovery on our site. So it helps customers find what they're looking for faster. So think about less discounting. So the real focus here is like really making sure that we're looking at this customer consignor, buyer consignor end-to-end and broadening our service on platform to kind of create this unique catalog of discoverable items across the broader AI ecosystem.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ashley Owens from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Ashley Owens

I'll add my congrats as well. Maybe just to start on the top line into the fourth quarter. You mentioned that the AOV typically comes back in Q4 with holiday and the orders accelerated really nicely in the third quarter, but the guide still implies that, that GMV growth will be moderating from high teens to high teens. I would just be curious as to how much of that is tougher compares from last year versus some conservatism? And any color on how trends have looked quarter-to-date heading into the holiday?

Ajay Gopal

Actually, thanks for that question. So just to clarify, my reference to Q4 versus Q3 is just a sequential change, right, with what we have seen in our businesses in Q4, average order values tend to be slightly higher versus Q3, and that really reflects growing interest in using people coming to The RealReal as they think about holiday shopping and gifting.

So we would expect that seasonal pattern to play out in Q4 relative to where we find ourselves in Q3. Your -- your other question was on Q4 guidance. Q3 was a really strong quarter for us, 23% growth in GMV, 19% revenue growth and 290 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

We are entering Q4 with strong momentum and high confidence in the business trajectory that we bring. And you see that reflected not just in the results in Q3, but also in us raising our guidance for the full year, including Q4 on all 3 metrics.

Ashley Owens

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up. So on the supply side, historically, some pressure on the consumer can actually be a tailwind as people are looking to monetize their closets I would just be curious as to if you're seeing any change in the cosigner motivation, like more urgency to sell or even consigning items people might normally hold, if that is showing up more or does show up more in mid-value or high-value items.

Rati Levesque

Yes, sure. I'll take that one. Thanks for the question. So we're seeing a resilient consumer, I would say, across our platform. I think our advantage is our model sits, we always say at the intersection of luxury and value. And that position -- structural positioning is an advantage of ours. A more expensive maybe primary market or in the primary market faces pressure.

I think the case for TR does get stronger. So sellers have motivation to maybe unlock value in their closets and buyers find that value even more compelling. So we talked about new buyers growing 20% in Q3. We continue to see this trend, stronger early cohort retention, like I mentioned, new buyers spending more sellers more engaged, but Gen Z being up more than 60% in the last three years, a really great stat for us, but growing adoption as well.

So almost half of luxury consumers now check the secondary price before they're buying new. But I think one of the great things about our marketplace as well is I believe the breadth across thousands of designers, categories and price points. So when consumer preferences may shift, we can shift with them pretty quickly. So our model works well regardless of where the mix demand may land.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jay Sole from UBS.

Jay Sole

Great. Can you hear me all right? My question is about Athena's next wave of savings. And I think last quarter, you described that many dollars per item of savings and that the next generation of Athena would remove even more manual intake steps. So maybe beyond reaching roughly 50% penetration, what additional reduction in processing cost per item is achievable next year? And maybe can you separate the opportunity from higher adoption, deeper automation within Athena and other factors that can help achieve those savings?

Ajay Gopal

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jay. So when we think about efficiencies, particularly within the operations part of our income statement, there's two things that we look at as driving that source of productivity and margin expansion. One of it is automation. So the recently launched automated storage and retrieval system, the ASRS system that we put in place is a great example of how we see improvements like that, allowing us to manage greater growing volume without necessarily having that much more incremental cost.

So that's a source of efficiency gains for us. In the past, we put in automated packaging equipment and also we done the layout of the op centers to have more automation and more conveyor belts, et cetera. So that's one source of margin expansion. The other one that we talk about quite extensively is Athena, and this is really about how we are using the power of our data and creating custom algorithms that are helping take a lot of manual touches out of the process and finding efficiency as we get more and more items through those -- through that workflow.

We started Athena last year. At the end of the year, we were successful in expanding to 35%. And this year, we see that getting to nearly 50% of all items that are running through our operations center. The cost savings will grow with the volume of what we process. So that's one source of how we continue to drive efficiencies.

Last time, we also did touch on how as we look at the items going through Athena, we see additional opportunities. So even within the 35% or 50%, we see other opportunities that we could do to further take cost out. We're not quantifying what that translates to on an annual basis, but it continues to be multiple dollars per item as we move these items onto that process.

Jay Sole

Okay. If I can ask one more on balance sheet, if you don't mind. What's the minimum liquidity cushion that you want to maintain ahead of 2028 repayment? And what's the contingency if the 2031 notes don't convert?

Ajay Gopal

Yes. Thanks for that question. So we are -- I would say we're pretty far away from any sort of minimum liquidity covenant like the business is in a great place. And our model is extremely cash efficient. As we continue to grow the business, we get a net working capital benefit.

And you're also seeing, particularly in some of the remarks I made in my script around how we are now at a -- we've crossed the threshold of adjusted EBITDA where we are seeing strong cash flow generation from growing EBITDA. So that's our focus going forward. We see the business continuing to generate stronger cash flow, stronger operating cash flows as we continue to grow both top line and expand margins going forward.

Jay Sole

Yes. Well, maybe just a follow-up quickly. I mean, how should we model cash interest and sort of the pricing and the step-downs under the new facility?

Ajay Gopal

The -- So I'll just describe sort of how the facility works, but happy to take a follow-up if you want, I can have more clarity to it. So the new -- what we recently announced is $150 million of debt that is priced at an interest rate of SOFR plus 5.75%. That rate does have the option to drop down to SOFR plus 5.5% based on us achieving certain net leverage ratios. The rate is locked for the next year at 575 basis points.

It will float a bit with -- if and when the underlying SOFR rate changes. I think the headline for us with the change we just announced is we expect that to bring down interest costs on an annual basis. The comparison versus what I just described is our prior $150 million of debt, which was -- which had an interest rate of 13% and that was split between a PIK as well as a cash component. So essentially, we're going from that $13 million to a lower rate of interest, which is going to bring down our annual interest burden going forward. For next year, we expect that to be roughly $4 million.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo.

Irwin Boruchow

Ajay, a couple for you. On the model, AOV up a good amount in the third quarter, a little bit less than the first half. Have you seen any price resistance from your consumer to any degree? And how should we be thinking about the direction of AOV go forward from here?

Ajay Gopal

Yes. Thanks for the question. You're right. AOV in Q3 grew 8%. I think in the prior quarter, it was up 13%. So a few points lower than what it was in Q2. We're not seeing what you described, price resistance from customers. We are seeing a shift in mix and part of it is seasonal. We always see a shift in mix in Q3 towards the mid-value.

So we're seeing a bit of that play out in Q3. Jewelry continues to grow really strong. But in the past, we've highlighted that it's been our fastest-growing category. Today, it's growing in line with the rest of the business. So fairly strong, but not no longer over-indexing as a source of growth.

Irwin Boruchow

Got it.

Ajay Gopal

To your question on like how do you model that forward? Sorry, it's -- I think we will expect to continue to see a healthy balance between average order value and order volume growth in the business. That was tilted a little more towards the AOV component in the first half, and we think Q4 is going to look more similar to Q3.

At the end of the day, though, I will point out that we're indifferent to how that mix plays out, right? As a marketplace, our take rate protects our unit economics regardless of how people mix in and out of categories and price points. And you can see that in our results. We've been successful in growing both top line and expanding margins in Q3 just as we were in Q1 and Q2.

Irwin Boruchow

Got it. And then a follow-up. You referenced some interesting points on operating cash flow, free cash flow at the beginning of the call. have one quarter left. I'm not sure if you'd be so kind as to offer a free cash flow guide for the year that we should expect. And then my last question would be, I know it's early and we're not in next year yet, but you continue to expand EBITDA at the high end or above the high end of your 200 to 300 bps annual algo. Any thoughts on how we should be thinking about 2027?

Ajay Gopal

Thanks for the questions. So on cash flow, yes, we're very pleased with the milestone we accomplished in Q3. We are operating cash flow positive three quarters in. Typically, we wouldn't get to that until the end of the year. So we have $10 million of operating cash flow in that number. We expect that number to grow just given Q4 and the role it plays in our typical annual cash cycle.

I don't have a free cash flow number for you for the year, but we're excited with the progress we're making, and we expect it to be meaningful compared to what we had last year. What was your second question? Sorry.

Irwin Boruchow

You continue to kind of generate EBITDA expansion at the high end or above the high end of your 200 to 300 bps. Just curious how we should be thinking about that for the near term.

Ajay Gopal

Yes. No, thanks for the reminder. So this year, we expect to expand EBITDA margins by 280 basis points. We are on a path to get to that 15% to 20% EBITDA margin over the medium term, and that to us translates to a range of 200 to 300 basis points. Within that range, we will pace our investments. We'll make sure we are achieving a healthy balance between growth and expanding margins.

Operator

Our final question comes from Matt Koranda from ROTH Capital Partners. It's Joseph on for Matt.

Joseph Gonzalez

Just a couple for me. Looking across your supply channels, I guess, could you guys speak about which channels the teams are excited about as the biggest supply growth drivers heading into 4Q and 2027?

Rati Levesque

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. Like I mentioned before, we're really excited about the results and supply that we're seeing come through our system. We're really focused on the end-to-end seller experience. We're seeing engagement go up especially with our most value consignors that mix from high to low when they're giving us their basket and so forth.

But the main thing is, like I said, we're really focused on diversifying our channel mix that there's no single point of failure. The team is really excited about some of these newer pieces that were -- that we've talked about, like trust in states, seeing more products come from some of these auction houses or trade shows, the pop-up events. That's something a little bit newer for us.

It's a part of our retail strategy, but instead of having to commit to a retail location right away, it's a way to kind of for us to test new regions to see if we still continue to see the halo effect. there. And then, of course, some of the international vendors that we're onboarding, excited about some of the higher-value products coming through. And then the demand that we're seeing for some of these channels are also quite exciting.

Joseph Gonzalez

Got it. And then I guess it's still very early, but just any thoughts on Athena implementation as we look out to 2027? And then anything that you can share on the impact to margins?

Ajay Gopal

Thanks for that question. We've -- we're making good progress on expanding Athena's coverage. Last year was 35%. This year, we expect to end at nearly 50%. Over the longer term, we will continue to work on expanding its coverage. We see no reason why it couldn't expense nearly every item that comes into our into our fulfillment center.

You're already seeing the impact on our margins in Q3 and as well as in prior quarters, we generated about 250 basis points of leverage from our ops and tech line. Within that, Athena is a key contributor to how operations is contributing to our margin expansion story.

Operator

The meeting has now concluded. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.