NVIDIA Price Forecast: Michael Burry Shorts NVDA, but Analysts See $299

The divergence between NVDA’s June performance and the stronger semiconductor sector speaks best to what this market is saying about fundamental AI leadership and relative near-term value. AMD set new record highs on July 1, the same day NVDA is being pushed away by resistance at the $198 level, thanks to first quarter 2026 results. Data Center reached $5.8 billion, representing 57% of total revenue in just two years, and MI450 customers are expected to exceed initial expectations.

This quarter, Micron and Sandisk delivered the strongest earnings in the AI supercycle. What they all have in common: they are all beneficiaries of the same AI demand, but each of them are now relatively better valued on the next quarter’s earnings given the near-term growth compared to NVIDIA.

The issue for NVIDIA is that the stock was already trading at a large multiple after 2023-2024’s huge run-up. Thus, there wasn’t much room for the multiple to expand before the four-factor headwind pileup: B200 GPU rental prices are down 31%, China revenue is effectively zero, $410 million in insider selling, plus valuation. NVIDIA is also well behind the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which is up 94% this year, so there are lots of relative semiconductor stocks that participated. To the PHLX, it was not the case that semiconductor stocks dropped.

Rather, the semiconductor stocks with lower initial valuations participated in the revenue boost while NVIDIA absorbed the multiple compression as the facts that boosted the semiconductor industry were already priced into the stock at year open. The Goldman Sachs data suggests that NVDA hedge funds are dumping tech stocks at a record pace. In addition, the stock most owned by hedge funds to be cut most is the name with the largest multiple.

Michael Burry’s disclosed short position in NVDA represents the most visible iteration of the bearish view and deserves both deference to his background and careful critique of his logic. While Burry has a proven track record of being years ahead on his investment positions, both right and wrong, the prevailing critique of NVDA at his price point remains one of extreme valuation: a 40 times earnings ratio on trailing earnings of $120 billion demands that NVIDIA not only continues to grow, but at an accelerated rate. If China revenues fail to recover, and the price for renting the B200 GPU falls, then there is some doubt regarding whether the growth rate is maintained.

Conversely, SemiAnalysis posted a piece today detailing NVDA’s potential to beat Q2 Fiscal 2027 expectations by 20%, pointing to Vera Rubin-specific production ramp-up details and hyperscaler customer delivery schedules missing from current consensus models.

Separately, Goldman Sachs is projecting that NVDA and Micron will comprise 40% of S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth this quarter alone, which would require the company to either meet or beat today’s $91 billion Q2 earnings guidance. Another view coming out this week is from a JPMorgan strategist who stated, the rotation trade will start in Q2 when the market decides rates/inflation has peaked, noting the recent fall of Core PCE suggests NVDA could see technology multiple expansion. 38 analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating, with an average price target of $298.87 over the last month as NVDA has declined 12% thus far in June.

On the 2H, NVDA is failing to reclaim $198–205 as support which is now acting as resistance, with red bars indicating some seller activity at this level. The descending channel remains intact, preventing any higher highs at this time. The RSI is 56.31 which has some space to go in either direction as it is nowhere near being oversold which would set up the positive divergence scenario. 

The 2H descending channel projects further downside if NVDA closes below the resistance and remains in continuation to 184.75–180.31. I see a short below 198.30 going to 184.70 with a stop above 205 where the support level at this stage would be reclaimed, and the descending channel invalidated.

• Short entry:  Below $198.30 — resistance rejection confirmed
• Target:  $184.70 — descending channel lower boundary
• Stop Loss:  Close above $205.00 — resistance zone reclaimed
• Q2 FY2027 guidance:  $91B revenue (±2%), 74.9–75.0% gross margin
• Next earnings:  August 26, 2026
• Burry position:  Disclosed short in NVDA (alongside AMAT, TSLA, CAT)

Why Did NVIDIA Fall 12% in June While Other Semiconductor Stocks Gained?

NVIDIA was down 12% last month in a semiconductor space that has rallied 94% YTD thanks to AMD hitting record highs and Micron and Sandisk having incredible earnings. It’s the classic move: AMD, Micron and Sandisk are all lower priced entering 2026 so they can re-rate up as the AI revenue accelerates. But NVIDIA is already fully priced in at a premium, so it’s a rotation from the premium. Goldman Sachs says hedge funds are selling into tech names as fast as ever before, and NVDA has the most premium to compress.

What Is Michael Burry’s Thesis for Shorting NVDA?

Michael Burry opened a NVDA short position, along with Applied Materials, Tesla and Caterpillar. His thesis hasn’t been publicly stated, but his bear case on NVDA at $4.85T is that it’s overpriced at 40x earnings so the company has to maintain acceleration, and the B200 rental price dropped 31% over the last three weeks and China revenue dropped from $4.6B to near zero so I have concerns.

What Does SemiAnalysis’ 20% Earnings Upside Call Mean for NVDA?

SemiAnalysis published their NVDA $109B thesis this past July 1 saying NVDA can beat Q2 26 consensus by 20% due to Vera Rubin ramp specifics and hyperscaler delivery schedules the Street is not yet pricing in. If true, NVDA can have 91B*1.20 = 109B revenue in Q2, which is well above the current Street consensus, and it will support Goldman Sachs’ view that NVDA and Micron will have 40% of S&P 500 Q2 26 growth. This makes the trade a high risk short due to the technical set up that could gap it higher above the $205 resistance if there is a 20% Q2 beat.

NVDA at $198.34 is being rejected at its $198-$205 resistance as part of a descending channel and there’s a lot of short pressure in play due to an activist Michael Burry short position and Goldman Sachs saying hedge funds are shorting tech as fast as ever, while AMD has all-time highs and SemiAnalysis thinks NVDA can beat Q2 by 20%.

We don’t have an alternate bull thesis except to wait for the August 26 earnings report which will be one of only two companies, the other being Micron, that Goldman believes will drive 40% of the S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth. We remain short NVDA below $198.30 targeting $184.70 with a stop above $205.00.

The bull case is that NVDA beats Q2 estimates by 20% which would gap the stock higher above resistance, so we will be watching that closely. The bear case is the four factors that remain true as of today: the B200 rental price is 31% lower now, China revenue is nearly zero, insiders are selling, and the multiple is expensive.