IBM Soars on $2B Trump Quantum Push: Will It Lead the Quantum Computing Stock Rally?

The U.S. government has launched a $2 billion quantum computing support program led by the Department of Commerce, aimed at ensuring absolute U.S. dominance in next-generation frontier technology, national security, and AI. The initiative involves direct equity investments in core domestic quantum computing firms to accelerate hardware development and the build-out of local supply chains.

The investment is reminiscent of the U.S. government's investment in Intel last year, (INTC) which totaled $11.1 billion. In return, the U.S. government held a direct 9.9% stake in Intel upon the transaction's completion, becoming one of its largest shareholders.

Funding for both investments comes from special allocations for early-stage frontier technology projects under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act signed by former President Biden. The method of support is the same: providing capital in exchange for equity rather than through direct financial subsidies.

These nine companies cover multiple technological approaches in the field of quantum computing, including superconducting, ion traps, neutral atoms, photonic, silicon-based, and quantum annealing. The nine firms include chipmaker GlobalFoundries (GFS) (GlobalFoundries), as well as U.S.-listed pure-play quantum computing firms IBM and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) , Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and Infleqtion (INFQ) , along with unlisted startups Diraq, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, and Quantinuum.

IBM received half of the total funding, amounting to $1 billion, while GlobalFoundries secured $375 million. D-Wave, Rigetti Computing, and Infleqtion are each expected to receive $100 million, and Diraq received $38 million. The funding amounts approved for Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, and Quantinuum were not disclosed.

Quantum computing refers to the use of quantum mechanical properties by quantum computers to perform calculations. While traditional computer cores are based on bits consisting of 1s and 0s, quantum computers use "qubits," which can exist as both 0 and 1 simultaneously, a state known as superposition.

When multiple qubits become entangled, computing power increases exponentially. If a traditional computer tries every path sequentially to find an exit, a quantum computer traverses all paths simultaneously to find the answer instantaneously.

Categorized by technical approach, there are currently four mainstream quantum technology routes: Trapped-Ion / Ion Trap, Superconducting, Photonic, and Quantum Annealing. Among these, the ion trap and superconducting routes are the most mature and receive the most attention from capital markets.

Accordingly, there are quantum computing companies in the market tackling various technical routes. For instance, representative companies researching ion traps include IonQ (IONQ) , Honeywell (HON) 's Quantinuum (QNT), and others.

Major players in superconductivity include Rigetti Computing and IBM; among tech giants, Google and Amazon also belong to this school. The reason the superconducting route attracts more participants, including multiple tech giants, is that they can leverage existing semiconductor microelectronic processes for miniaturization.

The photonic route primarily includes Quantum Computing (QUBT) and PsiQuantum. The most representative company in the quantum annealing route is D-Wave, which is the world's first and, to date, the most commercially successful quantum annealing company. Unlike other technical routes in quantum computing, quantum annealing does not seek to run complex general-purpose algorithms but is specifically used to solve global optimization problems.

Beyond direct access to capital, support programs from the U.S. government confer political priority upon these enterprises. This not only grants them access to top-secret projects—such as those from the Department of Defense (DoD) and the Department of Energy, which typically impose stringent requirements on supply chain localization and security—but also means that U.S. policy will continue to green-light these government-backed companies.

On the former point, Intel, for example, secured military chip orders from the Pentagon concurrently with receiving investment. Looking ahead, these quantum firms may attain equivalent status, becoming the primary suppliers of quantum computing power for U.S. government agencies and thereby ensuring long-term, stable guaranteed revenue.

From an industrial perspective, IBM's acquisition of half of the U.S. quantum computing support fund signifies that the company has become the U.S. government's de facto 'eldest son' in the quantum computing sector. This capital will be used to construct the nation's first pure quantum foundry and the first dedicated 300mm quantum wafer foundry. This move marks the first step toward integrating quantum chip production into modern semiconductor mass-industrialized production lines; should a breakthrough in quantum technology occur, all companies in the field will be reliant on IBM's foundry services. The U.S. government likely envisions IBM not just as a quantum R&D firm, but as the TSMC of the quantum computing industry (TSM) .

This will create a business model for IBM that distinguishes it from other quantum computing companies. Once quantum computing takes off, only IBM will be the industry's 'pick-and-shovel' provider; no matter who succeeds, IBM will get a piece of the action. When other startups are forced to rely on IBM's foundry, IBM will become the industry rule-setter—whether in wafer design rules, interface standards, or control chip standards. IBM's scarcity and absolute influence will make it the player with the highest pricing power in the industry.

While smaller quantum computing companies saw more aggressive stock price gains in this rally—for instance, Infleqtion surged 31.44% on May 21—from a long-term perspective, the ultimate winner will be IBM.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.