Nvidia Reports After the Bell Today — Five Things That Will Move NVDA After the Close

#1: The management team could report that Nvidia Blackwell is ramping even faster than expected. Management previously has stated that the company is seeing strong pre-orders for Blackwell at major AI customers including Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Oracle, as well as at a number of sovereign AI projects around the world. Wall Street has already priced in a strong Blackwell ramp. 

What would cause NVDA stock to spike even higher is a signal that Nvidia Blackwell is actually constrained by customer demand for it as opposed to supply-side constraints; this can happen if there is commentary that Blackwell is actually virtually sold-out into 2027. Any type of production yields or timing issues, even in the most minor ways, would be Nvidia's biggest downside catalyst for NVDA stock tonight.

#2: A new second-quarter and/or full-year revenue and earnings forecast would be required to make NVDA stock move 10% to 15% higher after earnings. One quarter of earnings is not a surprise at this point. It's when NVDA stock moves higher after earnings results that NVDA beats and raises guidance, specifically, when NVDA Q2 2027 revenue is higher than the current $80 billion to $85 billion analyst range or when full-year 2027 revenue guidance implies sequential acceleration rather than deceleration in the second half of 2026. 

Jensen Huang has described demand as “insatiable” in every public appearance this year. The question is whether the earnings call guidance validates or modifies that language.

#3: NVDA gross margins remain above 74%. This is what Wall Street's current non-GAAP gross margin is currently forecast at on consensus estimates. As Nvidia begins the initial ramp of new Blackwell chips this quarter, there's always a risk of higher manufacturing costs than seen in the more mature chips that make up Hopper. 

If Nvidia management indicates in the earnings call that the company is forecasting non-GAAP gross margins will increase over 2027 to 76% to 78% as the Blackwell ramp gains further traction, that would be a materially strong signal that NVDA stock would move on.

#4: Nvidia could highlight stronger-than-expected sovereign AI demand. Nvidia has been investing for several quarters in its nascent sovereign AI businesses, government AI infrastructure projects around the world, including in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Nvidia has described these government business units as a distinctly separate revenue category from hyperscaler capex. Nvidia management could announce the latest size of the sovereign AI project pipeline or announce additional government contract wins with sovereign AI businesses. 

This type of positive development would help expand the potential for NVDA stock higher as it would support a larger total addressable market narrative, a key component of analysts' price targets for NVDA stock this morning. This one is unlikely as it is generally considered the upside surprises on NVDA earnings.

#5: NVDA capital return announcement. Nvidia has a massive $2.5 trillion market cap and a strong free cash flow stream. If Nvidia management announces at today's earnings call that the company is increasing a current share buyback program significantly or announcing a one-time or special dividend, that would be another positive catalyst for NVDA stock. 

Of the five call catalysts that could cause NVDA stock to move post-earnings tonight, this one is least likely. It is something NVDA investors should keep in mind as the Nvidia history includes announcing major capital return programs on the heels of earnings announcements.

NVDA 221.45 is the 0.382 Fibo. NVDA is priced at $221.51, which is at the NVDA 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $221.45 and the middle of the upward sloping trendline in its steeply rising channel originating from the $194.83 low. Red moving average support is in play in the NVDA $216 to $220 price area. RSI has cooled from overbought price action as RSI is now down at the 48 to 56 price level with price action diverging to the upside. The NVDA bullish flag consolidation price action is intact with no breakdown in sight.

NVDA Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Price resistance levels in NVDA are $227.74, then $231.50 to $236.21. A very strong NVDA earnings beat and NVDA raising full-year or Q2 2027 guidance would be the catalyst that targets $250 to $270 on NVDA stock on its measured price move. Alternatively, an NVDA stock miss or conservative full-year or Q2 2027 guidance would put NVDA stock back in play in the $215 to $210 price area.

Long NVDA above $224 if NVDA stock consolidates above its NVDA 0.382 support at $221.45

• NVDA price action target #1 is $227.74 NVDA resistance
• NVDA price action target #2 is $231.50 to $236.21 NVDA resistance above NVDA middle trendline
• NVDA earnings after-hours price action price target is $250 to $270 NVDA price on a NVDA earnings beat and raising full-year or Q2 2027 guidance
• NVDA stop-loss level is NVDA stock below $220.40 if NVDA closes below its middle NVDA trendline

The company has confirmed that it will publish Q1 FY2027 results following market close on May 20, 2026. The conference call usually kicks off around an hour later, roughly at 5pm ET.

The market consensus expects revenues at $78 billion (77% YoY), $65+ billion in Data Center, non-GAAP gross margins over 74%, and adjusted EPS of $1.00-plus. Bank of America has a $320 price target on the name. Expect the spotlight to fall on Q2 guidance and the Blackwell ramp.

Risks:

• A production yield/timing issue on Blackwell that delays the ramp
• lower than consensus of $80-85 billion in Q2 guidance
• lower than 73% gross margin guidance indicating cost pressure on the Blackwell ramp
• any sign of capex moderation by hyperscalers

In addition, the US-China export issue remains an ever-present overhang. A tightening of AI chip export controls announced in conjunction with earnings will be a short-term headwind. It is a fact that the bull case is priced into the $221 price point, and any beat that does not have higher than expected guidance will result in the stock underperforming expectations.

Bank of America has the highest target at $320 (Buy), or some 45% upside from today's level at $221. In a bull case scenario (strong Blackwell ramp, higher full-year guidance and sovereign AI pipeline expansion) the stock can be projected into a 250-270 price target level from today's chart structure. However, should the company disappoint on guidance, expect $210 to 215 to be the first stop. The conference call tonight will do more to establish 2026 targets than any note in print.

Q1 FY27 results are not simply an earnings release, they are a referendum on the AI infrastructure supercycle in its entirety. What is not in question is the beat, it is when will guidance be raised, will Blackwell sell-out into CY2027 be confirmed, will sovereign AI be a line-item in the next 2 quarters, and will margins expand as the platform scales and margins are released to the upside? Any two of those 4 scenarios is likely to send the stock 10 to 15% higher at the call tonight.

At $221, NVDA is trading at Fib .382 support level with positive divergence and in formation with a Bull Flag above a 10. Any move above the $224 level would result in a trade of $227.74 or the Fib .382 price of $231.50 before the close of today's session, with post-earnings a target level of 250 to 270 in a stronger print. Today's call on NVIDIA is one that will see all related AI names in play, and will result in AMD, Cisco, Intel, Palantir and others moving in conjunction with NVIDIA as the stock moves with volume. But, it starts with the guidance number.