Gold Price Trend Analysis: Easing US-Iran Tensions Will Open the Path to $5,000 Gold

The core of the recent strength in gold lies in a phased easing of tensions between the United States and Iran.

Trump announced a two-week suspension of bombings and attacks on Iran, provided that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz; Iran, meanwhile, stated that negotiations would begin on April 10 in Islamabad, but emphasized that this does not mean the end of the war. This suggests the market sees a framework of "cooling down first, then negotiating," rather than a complete reconciliation.

This has two levels of impact on gold.

The first is geopolitical risk itself. In recent weeks, investors have been trading the risks of a blocked Strait of Hormuz, the spread of regional conflict, and energy supply disruptions, giving gold strong safe-haven attributes.

Now that Trump has suspended strikes and Iran has agreed to enter the dialogue process, concerns about an "immediate escalation" have indeed weakened, but "uncertainty" has not been eliminated. The statement from the Iranian National Security Council remains very cautious, clearly stating that a ceasefire is not equivalent to the end of the war.

The second is inflation and interest rates. Part of this gold rally comes from cooling market fears of "energy-driven inflation." If oil prices fall, inflation expectations will be pushed lower, which theoretically gives the Fed more policy room; but at the same time, gold itself is a non-yielding asset, and if the interest rate path remains high for a long time, gold prices will also be suppressed.

The reason gold can still move higher today shows that the market is not simply trading the "lower inflation is bearish for gold" logic, but is instead trading the logic that "conflict has eased but remains unstable, and the interest rate path still needs to be reassessed."

On the surface, gold arguably should not have surged as geopolitical risks eased, but the price action reflects that investors have yet to set aside their concerns regarding the uncertainties of the coming weeks.

The market had originally anticipated further escalation, but Trump's announcement of a two-week pause disrupted near-term expectations, which has been positive for gold.

Furthermore, Iran indicated it would begin negotiations in Islamabad on Friday without committing to a definitive end to the war; this state of 'de-escalation without resolution' is typically the most conducive to supporting risk-hedging demand for precious metals.

This is why today's gold rally appears more like 'sustained buying following a risk reassessment' rather than a pure emotional spike.

For investors, what truly matters is not ceasefire rhetoric, but whether the Strait of Hormuz remains stable, whether the U.S. will resume its hardline stance, and whether subsequent negotiations can produce an enforceable framework. As long as these three questions remain unanswered, gold is unlikely to retreat from its strong position in the short term.

Looking at intraday price action, gold has shown extreme strength today with a gain exceeding $100, although medium-term pressure has not dissipated.

Gold daily chart, Source: TradingView

Today's gold price has broken above the rebound high of $4,800.25 established last Thursday, further opening up upside potential. Meanwhile, the higher highs and higher lows in the candlestick patterns indicate a clear short-term uptrend.

Gold has currently ascended to near the $4,860 resistance level and is also approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $4,910. While overhead resistance is intensifying in the short term, this does not signal an end to the short-term bullish trend.

Gold 4-hour chart, Source: TradingView

According to the 4-hour gold chart, the candlestick formation has developed a distinct inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating a successful short-term bottom. As dip-buying accumulation continues to drive prices higher, the initial upside target is the $5,000–$5,040 range. A strong breakout above this zone could unlock further upside potential toward the $5,200 resistance level.

Regarding strategy, it is recommended to use the 4-hour 5-period SMA and 10-period SMA as support levels, focusing primarily on buying on dips.

In the short term, gold remains dominated by the situation between the U.S. and Iran.

As long as ceasefire talks and negotiations continue, market concerns over energy supply disruptions will ease, and safe-haven buying in gold will lean more toward 'maintaining positions' rather than 'frenziedly chasing highs.'

However, if negotiations collapse or if the U.S. and Iran adopt a hawkish stance once again regarding the Strait of Hormuz, gold could easily return to a rally mode.

From a medium-term perspective, gold is not currently in a 'logic-less' state, but is instead in a 'logic-shifting' phase.

Previously, the market was primarily trading on war escalation and oil-driven inflation; now, it has begun pricing in a ceasefire, negotiations, and interest rate repricing. Until the U.S.-Iran situation truly stabilizes, gold volatility will remain high, and the market will likely continue to see a tug-of-war around current highs.