ReNew (RNW) 2027財年第2季法說會：調升 EBITDA 財測指引

ReNew (NASDAQ: RNW) 在 2027 財年第二季法說會上公布獲利成長、擴增營運中再生能源組合，並上調 2027 財年調整後 EBITDA 指引下限。該季度涵蓋截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日止的期間。

重點摘要

• 2027 財年第二季調整後 EBITDA 年增 28% 至 336 億印度盧比，其中包括來自第三方製造銷售的 41 億印度盧比。
• 管理層公布第二季稅後淨利為 64 億印度盧比，年增 37.3%。上半年稅後淨利成長 26.2% 至 124 億印度盧比。
• 扣除 400 MW 的資產出售後，ReNew 的營運投資組合達到 13.8 GW，年增 23%。截至 9 月底，該公司在 2027 財年期間已併網投產超過 1.3 GW。
• 公司上調了 2027 財年調整後 EBITDA 指引的下限。新區間為 1,050 億至 1,090 億印度盧比，先前為 1,030 億至 1,090 億印度盧比。
• 製造業務仍為主要獲利驅動力。第二季來自對外製造銷售的調整後 EBITDA 為 41 億印度盧比，利潤率約為 33%。
• 管理層表示，太陽能限電使第二季業績減少約 900 萬至 1,000 萬美元，上半年減少 1,800 萬至 1,900 萬美元。

關鍵財務數據

2027 財年上半年，調整後 EBITDA 成長近 20% 至約 640 億印度盧比。稅後淨利成長 26.2% 至 124 億印度盧比。

業務與營運表現

ReNew 的總已承諾投資組合達到 20.5 GW，其中包括 1.7 GW 的電池儲能系統。其更廣泛的開發管線約為 27 GW，包含尚未轉化為購電合約 (PPA) 的意向書。

營運容量總計 13.8 GW：包括 5.7 GW 風電、7.9 GW 太陽能、99 MW 水電及 100 MW/250 MWh 的電池儲能。該公司在第二季併網投產 628 MW，截至 9 月止的本財年累計併網超過 1.3 GW。

商業與工業 (C&I) 投資組合跨越印度五個邦，規模達到 2.9 GW，其中 2.6 GW 已併網投產。亞馬遜 (Amazon)、微軟 (Microsoft) 及 Google 合計約占已簽約 C&I 購電量的半數。

製造部門在本季生產了 528 MW 電池片及 890 MW 模組。外部在手訂單約為 3.3 GW。ReNew 表示其 4 GW TOPCon 電池擴產項目已進入後期階段，預計於 2027 年 1 月開展首批電池生產。其晶棒與矽晶圓設施的商業營運預計於 2028 日曆年上半年啟動，資金將透過內部盈餘及外部融資籌集。

資本回收持續推進。涉及超過 1 GW 資產及 ReNew 在 3E 控制性股權的交易，預計將產生約 2.74 億美元的現金流。管理層指出，若包含已完成出售的 100 MW 太陽能資產，這些交易預計將帶來約 3 億美元進帳。

管理層指引

ReNew 將 2027 財年合併調整後 EBITDA 指引從 1,030 億至 1,090 億印度盧比，上調至 1,050 億至 1,090 億印度盧比。修訂後的區間包括：

• 來自製造業務的 120 億至 140 億印度盧比（自先前預測的 100 億至 120 億印度盧比上調）。
• 來自資產出售收益的 10 億至 20 億印度盧比。

公司維持預期在 2027 財年期間建置 1.6 GW 至 2.4 GW 的產能。

針對全部 20.5 GW 的已承諾投資組合，管理層維持預期年化運作率 (run-rate) 調整後 EBITDA 為 1,340 億至 1,400 億印度盧比，權益現金流為 320 億至 360 億印度盧比。這些估計假設天候正常、排除製造業務貢獻，並包含已簽署最終出售協議的 1 GW 項目。

風險與觀察重點

太陽能限電仍是主要的營運逆風，對新併網項目的影響尤甚。管理層估計其影響在第二季約為 900 萬至 1,000 萬美元，上半年約為 1,800 萬至 1,900 萬美元，同時指出該影響已有所放緩。

季風強度較弱，不過管理層表示風電廠的容量負載率明顯優於去年同期。

隨著更多電池片產能進入市場，預計下半年製造業務利潤率將趨於溫和。模組利潤率已顯著下降，而電池片利潤率在上半年仍保持相對強勁。

ReNew 即將到期的債務約為 17 億美元。管理層表示，已掌握或取得承諾的融資金額涵蓋 12.5 億美元，剩餘金額預計將在接近 2027 年年中到期時進行再融資。

擬議的私有化交易仍需取得股東批准、監管審查及其他條件。非財團股東可獲得每股 7.00 美元現金，或在滿足特定條件下透過展延安排保留股份。若所有條件均獲滿足，ReNew 預計該計畫將於 2027 日曆年第一季生效。

分析師問答亮點

管理層表示，太陽能限電主要集中在部分新併網的項目，目前正與印度政府洽商潛在補償或緩解措施。

在再融資方面，該公司表示在其約 17 億美元到期債務中，已有約 12.5 億美元獲得承諾或具備明確的資金能見度。

關於印度太陽能製造業務，管理層強調電池片利潤率持續強勁，但預計隨著產業產能擴張將有所放緩。公司表示，此製造表現支撐了其上調 2027 財年 EBITDA 指引的決定。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to ReNew's 2Q FY '27 Earnings Report. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to Anunay Shahi. Please go ahead.

Anunay Shahi

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We have put out a press release announcing results for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, for the period ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and the earnings presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of ReNew's website at www.renew.com.

With me today are Sumant Sinha, our Founder, Chairman and CEO; Kailash Vaswani, CFO; and Vaishali Sinha, Co-Founder and Chairperson, Sustainability. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call up for questions.

Please note that our safe harbor statements are contained within our press release, presentation materials and materials available on our website. These statements are important and [indiscernible] to all our remarks. There are risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. So we encourage you to review the press release and the presentation on our website for a more complete description.

Also contained in our press release, presentation materials and our annual report are certain non-IFRS measures that we reconcile to the most comparable IFRS measures, and these reconciliations are also available on our website in the press release, presentation materials and our annual report.

With that, it's now my pleasure to hand it over to our Founder, Chairman and CEO, Sumant Sinha. Sumant, over to you.

Sumant Sinha

Yes. Thank you, Anunay. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, everybody. I'm glad to have you all on our earnings call for the second quarter and the first half of fiscal year 2027.

The first half of this fiscal has been one of the strongest in our history. We have continued to deliver on our promise of profitable growth with strong growth in EBITDA and profit after tax, our lowest-ever receivable days, continued success in project execution and an improving leverage profile. As we had expected at the start of the year, power demand has also come back strongly, and this continues to support the long-term growth of renewable energy in India.

Turning to the highlights for the quarter on Page 6. Our operating portfolio now stands at 13.8 gigawatts, which is a 23% increase year-on-year after adjusting for the 400 megawatts of assets that we sold during the last 12 months. We have commissioned over 1.3 gigawatts so far in fiscal 2027, including 628 megawatts in the second quarter and about 2.7 gigawatts over the trailing 12 months. We have consistently delivered on our project execution over the past few years and expect the momentum to continue. Our committed portfolio is currently 20.5 gigawatts, including 1.7 gigawatts of BESS and our total pipeline is approximately 27 gigawatts, including LOIs, which have not yet been converted into PPAs. This is 2.7x the size of our portfolio at the time of listing about 5 years ago.

Coming to our financial performance. We continue to deliver profitable growth consistently on a year-on-year basis. In Q2 of fiscal 2027, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of INR 33.6 billion, including INR 4.1 billion from third-party sales from our manufacturing business. This is up 28% year-on-year. Our profit after tax was INR 6.4 billion, up 37.3% year-on-year. For the first half of fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA was approximately INR 64 billion, up almost 20% year-on-year, and profit after tax of INR 12.4 billion, up 26.2%. We also generated approximately INR 10.2 billion of cash flow to equity in the second quarter and more than INR 23 billion in the first half of fiscal 2027.

We have also benefited from stronger wind PLS in Q2 of fiscal 2027 compared to last year. However, on the solar side, we have continued to see some impact of rig-related curtailment. Our IPP DSO is now at 63 days, our lowest ever despite the seasonality we usually see in this high wind quarter. Our credit and leverage profile also continues to improve. Moody's has revised our outlook to Ba2 with a positive outlook from Ba2 with a negative outlook. And CARE has similarly revised our rating outlook from A to A positive.

Our manufacturing business continues to be profitable and our 4 gigawatt cell expansion is now in advanced stages with commercial operations expected to begin in the fourth quarter of this fiscal. Work is also underway on our 6.5 gigawatt [indiscernible] wafer facility, which we announced following the introduction of the ALMM-3 for wafers and which we will fund through a mix of internal accruals and external foundries.

Capital recycling also continues its momentum. In June, we closed the sale of a 100-megawatt solar asset in Tamil Nadu. In August, we signed definitive documents for the sale of over 1 gigawatt of assets, which is expected to generate around USD 190 million of cash flow. And in October of this year, we signed definitive documents for the sale of our controlling shareholding in 3E, a European renewable energy asset performance management and analytics platform, which is expected to generate another USD 84 million. Together, these transactions are expected to bring in approximately USD 300 million and once again demonstrates the quality of our assets and our ability to find buyers at attractive valuations.

On the back of this strong performance, particularly from our manufacturing business, we are raising the lower end of our fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance from INR 103 billion to INR 105 billion. The updated guidance is now INR 105 billion to INR 109 billion.

Let me now hand over to Kailash to take us through the next 2 pages. Kailash, over to you.

Kailash Vaswani

Thank you, Sumant. Turning to Page 7, an update on the take private process. As you will recall, on August 2026, the new signed a transaction agreement with the consortium comprising of CPP investments in Sumant. The acquisition will be effected through a U.K. scheme of arrangement, which is subject to award by the non-consortium shareholders. The special committee comprising of independent directors receive Rothschild's opinion that the cash offer is fair from a financial point of view to the holders of cash out shares. The committee considers the cash offer and the transaction agreement fair and reasonable and intend to unanimously recommend the shareholder vote in favor of the scheme.

JERA and Platinum Cactus A 2019, an affiliate of [indiscernible] to approximately hold 51.1% of the voting power of the shares subject to the scheme have is [indiscernible] undertaken to vote in favor of it. Under the scheme, non-consortium shareholders may receive USD 7.00 per share in cash. Alternatively, subject to certain conditions as will be laid out in the scheme document, they may like to keep their shares and remain shareholders through a rollover arrangement. On October 28, 2026, the ReNew and consortium signed a side letter, [indiscernible] the lever provisions for certain replacement awards under the new incentive plan. Otherwise, the transaction agreement is unchanged.

We continue to work towards the required regulatory approvals. The schedule 13E-3 transaction statement, including the preliminary scheme document has been filed with the SEC, and it was amended on October 28, 2026, subject to all conditions being satisfied, including regulatory approvals, we expect this scheme to become effective in the first quarter of calendar year 2027.

Turning to industry backdrop, Slide 13. Renewables continues to lead capacity addition in India. They made up of more than 85% of all power capacity added in the first half of fiscal '27, in line with recent trends. About 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity was added in the first half, including 21 gigawatts of solar, 3 gigawatt of wind and 0.7 gigawatts of hydro. As of September 30, 2026, installed renewal energy capacity, including large hydro stood at 299 gigawatt, that includes 171 gigawatt of solar and 59 gigawatts of wind capacity.

On the demand side, as we have said at the start of the year, we expect power demand to rise in fiscal 2027, helped by El Nino and a favorable pace here. Demand has been higher than last year and every month so far. Demand for the first half of fiscal '27 was up almost 10% year-on-year. Demand in October '26 compared to October '25 was up by 21%. Peak demand has already reached around 271 gigawatt in fiscal 27, which is a new high.

Supply is struggling to keep up, especially outside solar hours. On September 9, 2026, the peak demand deficit reached around 8 gigawatt and the evening deficit average 2.5 gigawatt during September. Again, in October, peak demand is up 24% year-on-year. All of this has also been reflected in rising exchange prices. This shows how important round-the-clock and storage back renewal energy capacity has become. We believe our growing BESS and RTC FDR projects puts us in a strong position to meet this need.

Turning to project execution on Slide 14. Our delivery remains derisked and on track for our annual guidance. Our operating portfolio stands at 13.8 gigawatts, including 100-megawatt or 250-megawatt hour of BESS, up 19% year-on-year, net of the 400 megawatts sold and up 23% adjusting for asset sales. In fiscal 2027 to date, we have commissioned 1.3 gigawatt comprising of 1.2 gigawatt of solar and 132-megawatt of wind capacity.

Looking ahead for solar, around 200-megawatt has been erected and is in advanced stages of commissioning. The majority of modules for the rest of the 327 execution are already at site, and the balance is secured to in-house production. For BESS 100% of pricing is locked in at attractive rates, and we are on track for this year's execution. For wind, around 300-megawatt has been erected and is in advanced stages of commissioning. And 100% of the wind turbine for the year are locked in within budgeted levels. Land is largely tied up or acquired for the next 12 months. Importantly, more than 75% of our 2.5 gigawatt committed capacity is with customers rated A+ or above. And this will continue to become higher with incremental growth largely coming from central or high-quality C&I offtakers.

Turning to our C&I business on Slide 15. We continue to have one of the largest C&I portfolios in India at 2.9 gigawatt across 5 states, of which 2.6 gigawatt is commissioned, including 330 megawatts that we commissioned so far this year. Our share of big tech and hyperscaler customers keeps increasing with Amazon, Microsoft and Google collectively accounting for about half of our contracted offtake in our C&I business. With around 10.7 gigawatt of data center capacity expected in India by 2031, representing a $20 billion market opportunity and 75 terawatt hour of power demand we believe we are well placed to participate in supplying energy to data centers.

Turning to our manufacturing business on Slide 16. Our manufacturing business continued its profitable run in this quarter as well. In Q2 of FY '27, revenue from external sales of modules and sales was around INR 12 billion and adjusted EBITDA from external sales was INR 4.1 billion compared to INR 3.3 billion in Q2 of fiscal '26, at a margin of about 33%. For the first half, adjusted EBITDA from external sales was INR 9.7 billion compared to INR 8.6 billion in Q2 fiscal '26. We produce with 528 megawatts of cells and 890 megawatts of modules during the quarter with best-in-class cell efficiency of around 23.5% and industry-leading utilization rates. Our external order book stands at approximately 3.3 gigawatts.

As a result of our continued strong performance, we've updated the annual EBITDA guidance from our manufacturing business to INR 12 billion to INR 14 billion from INR 10 billion to INR 12 billion previously. Please note that we expect around 40% to 60% of production to be used captively by our IPP business at [indiscernible] and pricing, which does not get reflected in the consolidated financials. We also continue to expect some moderation of margins in the second half of the year.

On our TOPCon expansion of 4 gigawatt cell plant, civil works and PEB works are completed the ETP and cleanroom are almost complete. All tools are on the side, printing lines are installed, and we expect to produce the first sales by Jan '27. On the Ingot-wafer plant, land and major approvals are in place. civil work has started and basing engineering is almost done. We expect commercial operations in the first half of calendar year '28 funded through internal accruals and an external fund raise.

Turning to Page 18. Our Q2 results reflect strong operating execution, continued growth in earnings and disciplined capital allocation. As of September 30, 2026, our total portfolio was approximately 20.5 gigawatts, including 1.7 gigawatt of BESS, operating capacity stood at 13.8 gigawatts, comprising 5.7 gigawatts of wind, 7.9 gigawatts of solar, 99-megawatt of hydro and 100-megawatt or 250-megawatt hour of BESS. We also had 6.6 gigawatt of committed capacity, including 1 gigawatt of wind 4 gigawatt of solar and 1.6 gigawatt of BESS. Since April '25, we have commissioned about 2.7 gigawatt, comprising mainly of around 2.2 gigawatts of solar, 439 megawatts of wind and 25-megawatt of BESS.

On consolidated performance for Q2 of fiscal '27, revenue was up 28% on the year, adjusted EBITDA was up 28% and PAT was up 37%. For Q2 fiscal '27, income was INR 49.6 billion, our revenue was INR 46.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA was INR 33.6 billion or $350 million and PAT was INR 9.9 billion compared to INR 5.6 billion of PAT in the same quarter last year. For the first half, revenue was up 21%. Adjusted EBITDA was up 20%, and PAT was up 26%. Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q2 of fiscal '27 were 82.9% for IPP, excluding 3E, 33.3% of manufacturing and 69.3% on a consolidated basis.

We remain disciplined in capital allocation and on net debt to trailing 12 months of adjusted EBITDA for operating projects has come down from -- to almost 5.3x from 5.7 at the end of last quarter. Of our net debt of INR 711.3 billion, INR 26.7 billion represents contributions from our JV partners and approximately INR 104.7 billion relates to under-construction projects, with debt partially drawn down for about 1.5 gigawatt of renewable energy, including BESS. Excluding these projects, which don't contribute to EBITDA, net debt for operational projects stands at INR 579.9 billion.

We remain committed to reducing our overall leverage and a part of our capital recycling proceeds will be used towards this. The 1 gigawatt of assets locked in under definitive agreements are expected to result in $190 million of cash flow on closing, and we expect another from the sale of our controlling shareholding in 3E. The improvement in our credit profile is also being recognized externally with positive output revisions from Moody's and CARE.

On working capital, as shown on Slide 27, our IPP DSO was 63 days as of September 2026, an improvement of 21 days year-on-year and 31 days over 2 years. and our lowest ever, helped by the INR 5.7 billion we received from under position [indiscernible] in July 2026. Manufacturing DSO was 9 days as central government counterparties became a larger part of our portfolio, more than 75% of our 20 gigawatt portfolio will be with high-quality offtakers that pay within 30 days. Our balance sheet remains robust. Cash and cash equivalents, bank balances and investments, including short and long-term investments, stood at INR 95.1 billion as of September 30, '26.

I will now hand over the call to Vaishali for ESG and sustainability update.

Vaishali Sinha

Moving to Slide 21. As global sustainability transitions from qualitative goals to rigorous operational execution, value chain reporting has become a baseline expectation for transparency and accountability. Driven by these evolving expectations, we continue to strengthen our ESG approach to enhanced nature-based disclosures and deeper supply chain engagement.

On nature, ReNew joined the task force on Nature Related Financial Disclosures, TNFD adopter community as the second India-based electric utility to do so. We completed ESG assessments for 100% of our critical suppliers for the third consecutive year with 0 suppliers classified as high risk. We also extended our engagement to Tier 2 suppliers through a pilot covering 15 value chain partners, further embedding ESG practices across our broader supply chain. ReNew further strengthened its global sustainability financials by being named among TIME's, Most Sustainable Companies in 2026, the only India-based utility company to receive this recognition.

Turning to Slide 22. We continue to make steady progress against our ESG targets. Starting with our environment commitments, we remain focused on advancing our net zero agenda. Renewable energy now accounts for nearly 36% of our manufacturing businesses electricity consumption. We have also published a transition plan aligned with renewals PTI validated net zero 2040 ambition.

[indiscernible] inclusive energy transition must create opportunities not only for the planet, but also for the people and communities at its heart. Our community initiatives have now positively impacted more than 2 million lives. Under Project Surya, 532 women have been trained as solar technicians with 115 successfully placed. Women currently represent 18.07% of our workforce, while board diversity stands at 22%. Our ESG performance also continues to be reflected in strong external ratings. We are currently awaiting results from ESG ratings for 2026 and will disclose progress across all ratings in our upcoming meetings.

I will now turn it over to Kailash to gave us through some guidance.

Kailash Vaswani

Thank you, shale. Turning to guidance on Page 24, backed by the strong performance in the first half, including from our manufacturing businesses we are raising the lower end of our fiscal '27 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance from INR 103 billion to INR 105 billion, taking the range to INR 105 billion to INR 109 billion. This now includes INR 12 billion to INR 14 billion from manufacturing, up from INR 10 billion to INR 12 billion earlier and INR 1 billion to INR 2 billion from asset sales gains. We continue to expect to construct between 1.6 to 2.4 gigawatt during fiscal '27 and to generate cash flow to equity of INR 18 crores to INR 22 billion.

For the total committed portfolio of 20.5 gigawatts, including 1.7 of BESS, we continue to expect run rate adjusted EBITDA of INR 134 billion to INR 140 billion and cash flow of equity of INR 32 billion to INR 36 billion, assuming normal weather patterns and excluding contribution from our manufacturing business. Please note that this includes the 1 gigawatt of projects for which we have signed definite agreements to sell.

With that, we will be happy to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Anunay Shahi

Operator, I think if we don't have any questions on the phone. We have 1 question through the webcast link.

Operator

Certainly, sorry. Should I go ahead?

Anunay Shahi

Yes, you can go ahead.

Operator

Yes. So the question is, and I'll read it out is, can you quantify what the impact of curtailment has been this year? And can you also comment on how the monsoon has been this year? And how do you see this impacting the company? And if you could expand on how you plan to fund the upcoming debt maturities.

Sumant Sinha

Maybe I can take the first part of the question. And Kailash will handle the rest. So on curtailment, so there has been some impact of curtailment on our solar projects. So this quarter, the impact was close to around $9 million to $10 million on account of TGMA, for some of our recently commissioned solar projects. And for the full half year, it is around $18 million to $19 million. Having said that, it is slowing over the course of the year. And as you -- as some of you may have read, there are also [indiscernible] under discussion with the government of India, if they can provide some relief for it, but that's the quantum of impact this year.

With respect to monsoon, while the monsoon has been weaker. Having said that, our wind PLS this year have been significantly better than what they were last year. Kailash?

Kailash Vaswani

Yes. And of the maturities, which are coming up of almost around including some other debt, which is not in the form of bonds, our total maturities are almost $1.7 billion. Of that, currently, we have a full line of sight of on $1.25 billion, so that we've already bought commitments in place and the balance is something which is due in the middle of next year, which we will refinance closer to the date.

Anunay Shahi

I think there's one more question from Maheep Mandloi of Mizuho. The question is, how do you think about India manufacturing next year?

I guess the reference is to how the manufacturing sector as a whole is doing. So Maheep, as we have also highlighted in our presentation, we currently have module -- operating module and cell capacity. So while the margins on the module side of things have reduced significantly, but we are seeing reasonable margins and strong margins on the cell business this year as well, at least so far. While we do expect some moderation going forward as more cell capacity comes online. But we are -- so far, at least, we're seeing strong margins given, and that's what's been reflected in our manufacturing results as well, which is where the EBITDA has grown compared to last year.

If there are no further questions, operator, we can close the call.

Operator

Certainly, we do not have any questions on the audio at this time. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.