Shentel (SHEN) 2026 年第三季法說會：光纖成長推升 EBITDA，資本支出指引上調

重點摘要

• Shenandoah Telecommunications 公布 2026 年第三季營收為 9,390 萬美元，年增 4.6%；調整後 EBITDA 成長 11.8% 至 3,320 萬美元。
• Glo Fiber 與商業光纖營收成長 19.5%，佔合併營收的 52%。管理層預計該比重到 2028 年將達到約 60%。
• Glo Fiber 數據客戶創紀錄增加 8,600 戶，較 2025 年第三季大幅成長 48%。數據客戶數達到約 109,000 戶，年增 32%。
• 公司重申 2026 年營收指引為 3.7 億美元至 3.77 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 指引為 1.31 億美元至 1.36 億美元。
• 資本支出指引從 2.2 億至 2.5 億美元上調至 2.55 億至 2.75 億美元，反映新增的 Glo Fiber 涵蓋住戶數以及政府補助款撥付延遲。
• 管理層預計主要網路擴建將在年底前基本完成，並繼續以自 2027 年起實現正自由現金流為目標。

核心財務業績

業務與營運表現

Glo Fiber 仍是 Shentel 的主要成長引擎。在第三季新增 25,000 個涵蓋住戶後，季末網路涵蓋的住宅與企業達約 501,000 戶。公司目前預計年底前涵蓋住戶數將達到約 517,000 戶。

Glo Fiber 數據客戶淨增 8,600 戶，使數據客戶群規模達到約 109,000 戶。總營收產生單位 (RGU) 超過 127,000 個，年增 31%。寬頻數據滲透率達到 21.7%，季增 68 個基點，較去年同期提升 108 個基點。

較早成立的 Glo Fiber 客群持續成熟。2019 年與 2020 年推出的涵蓋住戶平均滲透率達到 38.5%，高於管理層 37% 的中期目標。過去 12 個月的月平均流失率為 1.1%，而公司的客戶滿意度調查顯示淨推薦值 (NPS) 為 58。

在推出五年保證價格方案後，Glo Fiber 數據 ARPU 年減 1% 至略低於 76 美元。對更快網速方案的需求維持強勁：超過 83% 的新住宅客戶選擇了至少 1G 的網速，其中 20% 選擇 2G 服務，5% 選擇 5G 服務。

商業光纖在本季創造了超過 185,000 美元的每月新增銷售預訂額，並完成了 178,000 美元的新每月營收安裝。過去 12 個月的月平均降階與退訂流失率保持在 0.5% 的低水平。

既有寬頻市場在第三季結束時擁有超過 110,000 戶數據客戶，年減不到 2%。數據 ARPU 下降 3% 至約 80 美元，而月數據流失率升至 1.76%。管理層將此壓力歸因於有線網路的競爭，以及部分通膨影響家庭預算的農村市場需求減弱。

管理層財務指引

Shentel 維持其 2026 年營運展望：

• 營收介於 3.7 億美元至 3.77 億美元
• 調整後 EBITDA 介於 1.31 億美元至 1.36 億美元

公司將 2026 年資本支出指引從 2.2 億至 2.5 億美元上調至 2.55 億至 2.75 億美元。增加的額度中約有 1,000 萬美元與新增 7,000 個 Glo Fiber 涵蓋住戶有關，約 1,500 萬美元反映預計將順延至 2027 年第一季撥付的政府補助款。剩餘的 500 萬美元則涵蓋數項較小項目。

截至 9 月 30 日，Glo Fiber 擴建已完成 97%，既有寬頻擴建已完成 99%。管理層預計這兩項建設工程均將在年底前基本完成。

展望 2027 年，管理層預計調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將再擴展 300 至 400 個基點。驅動因素包括高毛利的 Glo Fiber 持續成長，以及預計於 12 月完成的裁員行動所帶來的整年成本節省。

管理層亦預計 Glo Fiber ARPU 自 2027 年起將持平至略為上升。既有寬頻 ARPU 預計將繼續下滑，但在 2027 年及未來幾年的降幅預估低於 1%，相比之下 2026 年第三季降幅為 3%。

風險與關注領域

Shentel 季末未償還債務為 7.6 億美元。淨槓桿率預計在 2026 年底達到 EBITDA 的約 5.7 至 5.8 倍。管理層目標是在 2027 年底前將槓桿率降至 5 倍以下，並在 2029 年前降至 4 倍以下。

政府補助款撥付時程仍是資本支出變化的不確定因素之一。公司預計部分補助款進帳將延至 2027 年，進而增加 2026 年的淨資本支出。

既有寬頻業務繼續面臨視訊客戶流失、農村地區負擔能力壓力、數據 ARPU 降低以及部分有線網路競爭。視訊 RGU 下降 13%，而 RLEC 營收則受到 DSL RGU 大幅下降 35% 以及政府補助營收減少的影響。

分析師問答重點

管理層表示，儘管外界關心增量成長的難度，但 Glo Fiber 的客戶取得狀況依然強勁。用戶淨增數年增 48%，滲透率仍低於 22%，仍有相當大的空間追求公司 37% 的中期目標。

關於競爭方面，管理層報告稱 Glo Fiber 市場無重大變化。在地電信業者正將部分 DSL 網路升級為光纖，但公司認為這些活動規模有限。

管理層表示，衛星寬頻對 Glo Fiber 市場的流失率幾乎沒有影響。在既有寬頻市場中，其對流失率的影響不足 10 個基點，且自 2026 年第一季達到頂峰後每季持續下降。

與超大規模業者（Hyperscalers）就多個 AI 資料中心合作機會的討論仍在持續進行。管理層表示談判正在推進中，但未提供更多合約細節。

Shentel 表示，其 Glo Fiber 市場精算基礎為 15% 的內部報酬率 (IRR)，包括計劃在年底前新增的 7,000 個涵蓋住戶。公司透過基於經常性營收、經常性調整後 EBITDA、流失率及客戶取得成本的顧客終身價值來評估客戶經濟效益。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Shenandoah Telecommunications Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Lucas Binder, Vice President of Corporate Finance for Shentel.

Lucas Binder

Thank you, Victor. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. The purpose of today's call is to review Shentel's results for the third quarter of 2026. Our results were announced in a press release distributed this morning. In addition, we filed our Form 10-Q with the SEC. The presentation we will review is available on the Investor page of our website at investor.shentel.com. An audio replay of this call will be available later today with details included in the press release announcing this call. With us today are Ed McKay, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Volk, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After the prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

Please turn to Slide 2, which contains our safe harbor disclaimer. This call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those statements. We encourage you to review the detailed discussions of risk factors in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Forward-looking statements reflect management's current beliefs, assumptions and expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. You should not place undue reliance on them. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements or revise any forward-looking statements. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations and additional information are included in today's release and presentation.

With that, I will turn the call over to Ed. Go ahead, Ed.

Edward McKay

Customers, advancing our major construction programs toward completion and converting revenue growth into stronger adjusted EBITDA growth. For the third quarter, Glo Fiber surpassed 0.5 million passings, an important milestone as we move closer to completing our planned expansion. We added 8,600 Glo Fiber data customers, a record quarter for net additions, and ended the quarter with approximately 109,000 data customers, up 32% year-over-year. Our fiber businesses continue to gain scale with combined Glo Fiber and Commercial Fiber revenue growing 19.5% year-over-year and representing 52% of consolidated revenues.

Total revenue was $93.9 million, up 4.6% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA increased 11.8% to $33.2 million. The higher rate of adjusted EBITDA growth reflects the operating leverage we are beginning to realize from continued growth in our fiber businesses. I think it is also important to recognize how Shentel's business is evolving relative to other broadband providers. While many traditional cable operators are navigating broadband subscriber declines, we continue to add customers at a strong pace. More than half of our revenue now comes from our growing fiber businesses, and with our major network expansion substantially complete by year-end, we believe we are uniquely positioned to convert that growth into expanding margins and positive free cash flow starting in 2027.

Turning to Slide 5. Our integrated network now includes more than 20,000 route -- fiber route miles across 8 states and approximately 755,000 total broadband passings. At quarter end, Glo Fiber passed approximately 501,000 homes and businesses, including 25,000 added during the third quarter. We remain on track to substantially complete our planned Glo Fiber expansion in 2026 and now expect to pass approximately 517,000 homes and businesses by the end of the year.

As shown on Slide 6, Glo Fiber customer growth accelerated in the third quarter with a record 8,600 data net additions, up 48% from the third quarter of 2025. Our 5-year price guarantee and expansion of our door-to-door sales channel have been key drivers of this growth. Over the past 12 months, we've added more than 26,000 new data customers and 30,000 total RGUs. We ended the third quarter with more than 127,000 Glo Fiber revenue-generating units, up 31% compared to the prior year.

Moving to Slide 7. Broadband data penetration reached 21.7%, increasing 68 basis points sequentially and 108 basis points year-over-year. Over the past 12 months, we released approximately 100,000 passings to sales, creating a larger base for continued customer growth. Penetration trends for Glo Fiber expansion markets are shown on Slide 8. Our older cohorts continue to increase penetration with passings launched in 2019 and 2020 now averaging 38.5%, exceeding our medium-term target of 37%. In addition to providing the fastest speeds in our markets, we remain focused on delivering outstanding local customer service.

As shown on Slide 9, our annual Glo Fiber customer satisfaction survey produced an outstanding Net Promoter Score of 58. We continue to rank among broadband industry leaders in both customer satisfaction and retention with average monthly churn of just 1.1% over the past 12 months. Broadband data average revenue per user for the third quarter was down slightly, both sequentially and year-over-year to just under $76. The 1% year-over-year decline was consistent with our expectations following the introduction of our 5-year price guarantee plans a year ago. We continue to have success moving customers up the rate card and differentiating Glo Fiber with faster speeds than our competitors. Demand for higher-speed products remains strong with more than 83% of new residential customers selecting speeds of 1 gig or higher in the third quarter, including 20% choosing 2-gig service and 5% choosing 5-gig service.

Our Commercial Fiber business is highlighted on Slide 10. In the third quarter, incremental monthly sales bookings exceeded $185,000, driven by strong demand across commercial and enterprise customers, including wireless carriers and wholesale customers. Our service delivery team installed $178,000 new monthly revenue in the quarter, and our average monthly compression and disconnect churn remained low, averaging 0.5% over the last 12 months.

On Slide 11, incumbent broadband markets ended the quarter with more than 110,000 broadband data customers, down less than 2% year-over-year. The decline in total RGUs continued to be driven by video customer losses as customers shift to streaming services. Total broadband passings in our incumbent markets increased slightly during the quarter, and we expect to complete the government grant-subsidized fiber passings by the end of 2026.

As shown on Slide 12, our 23,000 subsidized passings completed in recent years, predominantly with fiber, have reached aggregate data penetration of 43%. The 2023 cohorts are averaging more than 60% with the oldest cohort approaching 72%. These results demonstrate strong customer demand across these previously unserved areas. We expect overall penetration to reach approximately 65% over the next few years, representing roughly 5,000 incremental customers on our superior fiber network.

Moving to Slide 13. Broadband data monthly churn increased modestly in the third quarter to 1.76%. The increase was driven primarily by a combination of wired broadband competition and softer demand in some of our more rural markets, where inflation continues to pressure household budgets. Broadband data ARPU declined 3% year-over-year to approximately $80. Our focus this year has been on modernizing our offerings in these rural markets to better meet customer needs. We saw churn improve in September and expect both churn and ARPU to gradually stabilize over the coming quarters as we make additional changes to our rate card and product offerings to maximize customer lifetime value.

I want to thank our employees for their continued dedication to serving our customers and executing on our fiber expansion strategy. Glo Fiber's successful growth over the past several years reflects the collective efforts of our entire team and builds on Shentel's proud legacy.

Jim, I'll turn it over to you to review our financial results.

James Volk

Thank you, Ed, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on Slide 15 with our third quarter financial results. Revenues increased 4.6% year-over-year to $93.9 million. Glo Fiber expansion market revenue grew $6.9 million or 32.2%, driven by a 31.8% increase in data subscribers and relatively stable year-over-year data ARPU. Commercial Fiber revenue grew $1.2 million or 5.9%. This growth was driven by recurring revenue growth in the enterprise and carrier verticals. Combined, Glo Fiber and Commercial Fiber revenue grew 19.5% and represented 52% of consolidated revenue. We expect strong fiber revenue growth to continue, reaching approximately 60% of consolidated revenue by 2028.

Incumbent broadband markets revenue declined $2.8 million, primarily due to lower video revenue from a 13% decline in video RGUs as customers continue to switch to streaming video services as well as lower data revenues due primarily to a 3% decline in data ARPU. RLEC revenue declined $1.1 million, primarily due to lower DSL revenue from a 35% decline in DSL RGUs and lower government support revenues. We have successfully migrated about 4,500 DSL customers to our recently constructed broadband Internet service in our Virginia and Ohio telephone markets since 2023. We expect DSL customer base to stabilize after we migrate the remaining 600 DSL customers in the next year or so.

Adjusted EBITDA increased $3.5 million or 11.8% to $33.2 million. Revenue grew $4.1 million, partially offset by $600,000 in higher operating expenses. Incremental adjusted EBITDA margin was an outstanding 85% by -- driven by the high-margin Glo Fiber revenue growth. Compared to the same periods in 2025, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 200 basis points in the third quarter and 300 basis points year-to-date. We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to expand another 300 to 400 basis points in 2027, driven by continued high-margin Glo Fiber revenue growth and a full year of operating expense savings from the previously announced reduction in force that will be completed in December.

Turning to Slide 16. We are reiterating our 2026 operating guidance. We continue to expect revenues of $370 million to $377 million and adjusted EBITDA of $131 million to $136 million. For our capital expenditures outlook, we are increasing our guidance to a range of $255 million to $275 million from our prior guidance of $220 million to $250 million. The primary drivers of the increase are twofold. One, we expect to construct 7,000 additional Glo Fiber passings by year-end, bringing total to approximately 517,000 from 510,000. Two, the timing of government grant receipts will likely extend into 2027, which will result in higher net CapEx for 2026. Please note that our prior CapEx guidance was based on net capital expenditures.

On Slide 17, we invested $215 million in capital expenditures during the first 9 months of 2026 and collected $22 million in government grants, resulting in net capital expenditures of $193 million. Net capital expenditures declined 9% from the first 9 months of 2025. As of September 30, we are 97% complete with our Glo Fiber expansion and 99% complete with our incumbent broadband expansion, and we expect to substantially complete the remaining construction by year-end.

I'd now like to update you on our liquidity and debt maturities on Slide 18. As of September 30, we had $760 million in outstanding debt. We have no debt maturities until 2029 and 75% of our debt is fixed rate, providing meaningful protection from potential increases in short-term interest rates. Total available liquidity was $139 million, consisting of $19 million in cash and cash equivalents, $27 million in restricted cash as required by the ABS indenture, $16 million available under the VFN, $50 million available under the RCF and $27 million remaining reimbursements available under government grants. In addition, the company has over $84 million of VFN commitments that are not available to draw as of September 30. We expect the available VFN capacity to reach the commitment levels with continued growth in secured fiber network revenues from the ABS entities. As we wrap up the final 2 months of our network expansion, we have greater visibility into our financial outlook.

Slide 19 highlights the 3 keys to generating and growing positive free cash flow beginning in 2027. Number one, low double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth rates driven by our fiber businesses; two, mid-20% capital intensity consisting primarily of success-based and maintenance capital spending; and three, 5.9% to 6% cost of debt that is primarily fixed-rate notes. As we complete our investment phase and transition to positive free cash flow, we expect to derisk our business plan while retaining significant runway for Glo Fiber penetration, high-margin revenue growth and cash flow generation.

Thank you, operator. We are now ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question will come from the line of Hamed Khorsand from BWS Financial.

分析師問答

Hamed Khorsand

I guess the first question I have, just given what you're saying about the business and how you're adding subscribers. On one hand, it seems like you're adding a lot of more Glo Fiber subscribers, but the commentary makes it sound like it's getting tougher for that incremental add. Is that a good assessment? Or is it still easy to find Glo Fiber subscribers?

Edward McKay

Hamed, this is Ed. I would say we are still having significant success adding Glo Fiber customers. When you look at our gross adds -- or excuse me, our net adds in the third quarter of this year versus net adds in the third quarter of last year, those net adds are up 48%. So we are having success. We have a lot of runway ahead of us. Our penetration rate in Glo Fiber right now is still below 22%. So we've got a lot of runway to hit our 37% midterm target, and we believe there's upside beyond that longer term. So we're still able to add Glo Fiber customers at an accelerated pace year-over-year.

Hamed Khorsand

Okay. And are you seeing any competitive threats at all in any of your markets right now? Or has that eased?

Edward McKay

Yes. In Glo Fiber, really no additional changes from a competitive threat standpoint. We still see some fiber upgrades in the local telephone company markets from DSL in some areas, but again, not significant. In our incumbent cable business, same thing. We do see some upgrades from the local telephone companies of DSL, but the majority of our passings in our incumbent business still do not have a wired cable competitor or fiber competitor.

Hamed Khorsand

Okay. And then as far as your ARPU is concerned, is that more of a metric of what the price card you've moved to in recent months?

Edward McKay

Correct. Yes. In our Glo Fiber business, really the 5-year rate card that we rolled out last year impacted the ARPU by about 1% as we expected. In our incumbent cable markets, we've updated the rate card to be more effective in the more rural areas that are income-constrained and are really feeling the pinch from inflation. So our goal there is to really maximize the lifetime value of those customers. So we're balancing return, ARPU as well as gross adds.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Christian Schwab from Craig-Hallum.

Benjamin Taxdahl

It's Ben Taxdahl on for Christian this morning. Another solid quarter. I have a couple of questions. First on the -- any update on your footprint? I think you previously said you have around 20 data centers across the footprint. And last quarter, you announced a master service agreement with a hyperscaler. Any updates there on AI data center customers across the footprint?

Edward McKay

Ben, thank you for the question. So I'll say it takes time to negotiate contracts with these major hyperscalers. Our discussions are ongoing regarding multiple opportunities. They're progressing well. We still see this as a significant growth opportunity for us. I just don't have anything additional to share right at this moment.

Benjamin Taxdahl

All right. And then just quickly on those customers, what -- have you guys done like an internal IRR calculation or what like a return on investment could be like for these types of customers?

Edward McKay

Jim, do you want to take that one?

James Volk

Yes. Ben, we tend to do more of a customer lifetime value calculation, which essentially looks at the lifetime of the customer, which is kind of the inverse of churn, which for us, with 1.1% churn on the Glo Fiber side, that equates to almost 100 months or 8-plus years. And then we look at the recurring revenue and recurring adjusted EBITDA from that customer, and then we subtract out the cost of acquisition. And for Glo Fiber, that gives us -- the value of those customers are worth a couple of thousand dollars when you do those calculations. And we'll do the same calculations on the incumbent cable side as well.

Benjamin Taxdahl

All right. And just remind me, as we increase the passings by 7,000, I mean, of, say, the roughly 30,000 -- sorry, $30 million in CapEx increase, how much of that is just on adding passings? And it may be helpful to just kind of give the cost so I can compare it to what you just said.

James Volk

Yes. Ben, so about $10 million of the increase related to the 7,000 additional passings. About $15 million relates to the government grant subsidies, which is really just a timing issue. We don't control exactly when the governments reimburse us for the grants. But it looks like based upon timing, it is going to extend into the first quarter. And then the remaining piece, $5 million, which is a variety of smaller things.

Benjamin Taxdahl

So I mean, say, [ $1,500 ] of passing and I mean, you just said a couple of thousand, say, [ $3,000-ish ] and where the stock is, I mean, how I'm viewing it as you guys aren't getting even close to the full value of what your passings are worth? Is that kind of how you're viewing it internally?

James Volk

Yes, that's correct. We're -- one, going back to Glo Fiber passings and your question on IRRs, we've been underwriting all of the Glo Fiber markets to an IRR of 15%. And that would include the additional 7,000 passings that we're planning to build by the end of this year. But as far as for valuation, Ben, we're disappointed where the stock is sitting today. We think there's some macro issues driving that more so than our fundamentals. But ironically, if you do the calculations, we're trading at roughly 10x today, whereas 5 months ago, we were trading roughly at 12x EBITDA. And we're significantly derisking our business plan by completing the construction phase and going free cash flow positive. So a lot of times, I would suspect that -- or EBITDA multiples would expand during that period of transition, but we seem to be getting hit with some outside influences outside of our business.

Benjamin Taxdahl

Yes. And just speaking of outside influences, you guys -- it seems like if there's a comment on SpaceX, your stock will trade down. But as you -- you can maybe highlight more, you guys don't believe SpaceX is a risk virtually at all, especially in the Glo Fiber business, correct?

Edward McKay

Ben, that's right. We've seen virtually no churn impact from satellite in our Glo Fiber markets. Even in our incumbent broadband markets, the churn impact has been minimal, less than 10 basis points of churn. So the satellite impact peaked in the first quarter of this year, and it has declined every quarter since. We believe our updated rate cards in our incumbent cable markets, they compete very effectively against satellite. So we do not believe this is a significant long-term factor for us.

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Vikash Harlalka from New Street Research.

Vikash Harlalka

I know you touched upon stabilization in broadband ARPU. Could you just provide us any visibility into when you expect broadband ARPU to stabilize and maybe start growing? And then second, I just wanted to understand your capital allocation philosophy, especially given that now you're almost done with your fiber build. What's your long-term leverage target? When do you get there? And then what do you plan to do with any excess cash that you may generate?

Edward McKay

Jim, do you want to take that one?

James Volk

Sure. I'll start with the last question. We expect net leverage at the end of the year to be about 5.7 to 5.8x EBITDA. We do expect to delever relatively quickly. By the end of '27, we expect the net leverage to be below 5x. And by '29, we expect it to be below 4x. So we're confident in our ability to delever the business. In regard to the ARPU, so 2 different stories here with the 2 different residential lines of business.

On the Glo Fiber side, when we introduced a year ago the 5-year price-guaranteed rate plans, we expected about 1% decline in ARPU due to the promotional plans that we had put out there. And then in our 5-year plans, we're not charging for equipment for the first year, but we do charge it starting in the second year. So some of that equipment revenue was kicking in, in the fourth quarter. So we still expect a small decline from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. But starting in '27, we expect ARPU to actually be flat to slightly rising. So we're just about at the point that it starts to pivot back up.

On the incumbent side, we do -- we are -- we introduced several new initiatives this year, as Ed talked about, in the markets that we don't have wireline competition, but we have low demographics and have been -- that have been pinched pretty hard by the inflation. So we've been doing that more on a retention and a promotional plan basis. But Vikash, we expect -- we're planning to introduce a new rate card in early 2027 that will move away from some of the promotional activity and get into more everyday pricing. And it will -- we believe it will increase customer lifetime value. There's going to be some pluses and minuses in those new rate plans that we think will allow us to grow penetration in some of these lower-income markets better than what we've done recently. But the ARPU will probably still slightly decline, but not at the rate that we had this past quarter where it was 3%. I would expect it to be more on the lines of less than 1% in 2027 and the next couple of years after that.

Operator

And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back over to Ed for closing remarks.

Edward McKay

Thanks for joining us today. We're very excited about our growth opportunities. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the future quarters. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.