下次 FOMC 会议降息 25 个基点的可能性为 98.6%
CME FedWatch 工具得出 FOMC 在即将举行的为期两天的 12 月会议上建议降息 25 个基点的可能性为 98.6%。尽管 11 月份通胀报告居高不下，但降息的可能性仍在上升。
11月份CPI（消费者价格指数）上涨，从10月份的2.6%升至2.7%。值得注意的是，这一涨幅与伦敦证券交易所集团 (LSEG) 调查的经济学家的预期一致。 CPI 的上升使整体通胀数据进一步偏离美联储 2% 的目标利率。 Northlight资产管理公司首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)表示，通胀上升不足以破坏圣诞节。
通胀报告不会削弱12月降息的可能性
根据 CME FedWatch 工具，下周几乎肯定会降息 25 个基点pic.twitter.com/bMrGwredGv
— Tunc Satiroglu (@kanalfinans) 2024 年 12 月 12 日
According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps during the next policymakers’ meeting rose from 94.7% to 98.6%, even as inflation edged slightly higher in November.
Zaccarelli claimed that next week’s interest rate cut would enable markets to rally into the end of the year. He added that the Fed is likely to look through these recent month-to-month headline CPI fluctuations to continue on its easing path.
The Fed began the ongoing rate-cutting cycle with a huge 50 bps cut in September, followed by another 25 bps cut in November.
EY chief economist Gregory Daco and senior economist Lydia Boussour expected the Fed to continue cutting rates despite the latest inflation data. They thought it should be a closer call for the policymakers than the markets indicated.
“We believe economic fundamentals of gently decelerating labor market momentum, strong productivity growth and disinflationary under-currents would support a further 25 bps fed funds rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.”
Nearly 90% of the economists polled by Reuters expected the 25 bps reduction to bring the federal fund rate down to the 4.25%—4.50% range. However, there was no clear consensus among the polled economists about what the Fed would do beyond the January 2025 FOMC meeting.
Fed chair says the pace of interest rate cuts depends on economic conditions
Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said that the U.S. central bank was gradually lowering interest rates and would adjust the pace of rate cuts as needed based on economic conditions. He explained that monetary policy would be adjusted to best promote the country’s price stability and maximum employment goals.
According to Powell, the Fed would dial back policy restraint more slowly if the economy remained strong and inflation did not sustainably move towards 2%. He said the Fed would move quicker if the labor market weakened unexpectedly or inflation fell faster.
The Fed chair pointed out that the economy was not signaling the need to lower interest rates quickly. He added that the country’s economic strength allowed the Fed to approach its decisions carefully. The policy rate path would ultimately depend on how the economic outlook and incoming data evolved.
Powell said the smart move would be to navigate between moving too fast and too slow to ensure the Fed got it right. Going down the middle would help support the labor market and bring inflation down.
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