Wall Street está dent em Trump – Eis o porquê
Os consultores de Wall Street prevêem que a economia de Trump liderará um aumento nas atividades empresariais em 2025. Eles esperam que os controlos regulamentares sejam mais flexíveis para impulsionar as fusões e aquisições (F&A) juntamente com as estreias no mercado de ações.
A mudança é atribuída aos votos do dent eleito Donald Trump ao longo da sua campanha dent , que prenunciaram um ambiente regulamentar menos rigoroso que poderá impulsionar a atividade das empresas e a confiança dos investidores no próximo ano.
Christina Minnis, chefe de financiamento de crédito global e aquisições da Goldman Sachs, disse aos participantes da conferência Mulheres, Dinheiro e Poder da Bloomberg, em Londres, que há um sentimento crescente de otimismo em torno da atividade de fusões e aquisições nos Estados Unidos.
“ Penso que provavelmente existe um sentimento de que a actividade de fusões e aquisições nos EUA poderá ser ligeiramente mais robusta ”, disse Minnis, referindo-se às propostas políticas de Trump que prometem um ambiente mais amigável para transacções empresariais.
Minnis acredita que o sentimento do mercado tem sido especialmente evidente desde as eleições, com um aumento nas consultas de patrocinadores e clientes empresariais que anteriormente estavam hesitantes devido a incertezas regulamentares.
Por mil milhões de dólares, Donald Trump promete agora isentar as empresas das regulamentações governamentais – incluindo requisitos ambientais e de segurança. pic.twitter.com/djEBKaBy0j
— Max Burns (@themaxburns) 10 de dezembro de 2024
Despite this optimism in the US, the Goldman Sachs credit finance head cautioned that European markets may experience a more cautious approach due to concerns over tariffs that the US might potentially impose. However, she remains confident that the summer months will see a general uptick in global deal activity as markets adjust to the new political landscape.
Analysts optimistic about Trump’s policies and proposed regulatory changes
Alison Harding-Jones, Deutsche Bank’s global head of M&A, echoed Minnis’s sentiment, highlighting the change in regulatory climate expected under Trump’s administration. She noted that under Biden’s administration, the regulatory process often dragged on for years, with some deals stalling entirely as watchdogs examined every detail.
“The mindset is the US has definitely been much more difficult under Biden, and that will change and get better,” Harding-Jones said.
Simona Maellare, global co-head of the alternative capital group at UBS, also sees a shift in the market dynamics. She stated that private equity firms, which have been sitting on trillions of dollars in unspent capital, are likely to take advantage of the new regulatory environment.
“What has prevented deals in the past was this bid-ask on valuations,” Maellare explained. “…But the economics don’t work like that. If they’re not encouraged, if they don’t make the returns, they really can’t do it.”
The relaxation of regulatory constraints could offer these firms an ideal scenario for deploying their capital in a more favorable environment.
In Europe, the change in US leadership could spur consolidation within the region’s banking industry, which has struggled to keep pace with the US sector since the financial crisis. Moreover, Harding-Jones pointed out that while there has been some uptick in acquisitions by European lenders, most deals have been limited to domestic transactions.
A more relaxed regulatory environment in the US could prompt European regulators to move forward with the much-discussed banking union, long considered a key goal for the region’s lawmakers.
The crypto industry poised to thrive under Trump’s administration
Alongside traditional industries, the crypto sector is also set to benefit from the expected shift in regulatory dynamics. With President-elect Trump’s promises of a more favorable regulatory regime for digital assets, crypto-native firms are likely to see accelerated growth.
🚨BREAKING: Eric Trump confirms President Trump’s plan to make American cryptocurrencies such as $XRP $XLM $BTC and $ETH tax free
I was the first public source of this story and reported on it. This will put non American crypto at a -37% tax disadvantage.
DM to setup your qfs pic.twitter.com/AXus9gV3Fq
— Official Bo Polny (@BoPolnysays) December 11, 2024
Industry experts believe that the loosening of regulatory restrictions will benefit companies like Coinbase Global Inc., the largest US crypto exchange, whose stock surged following the election results.
Per a recent Bloomberg report, private crypto firms are also benefiting from the expected change, with Ripple Labs seeing a 72% increase in shares traded on secondary markets.
Crypto firms face competition from TradFi players
For years, many established financial institutions have avoided the crypto space due to regulatory uncertainty. However, as the regulatory environment becomes more transparent under Trump, major players like State Street, JPMorgan Chase, BNY Mellon, and Bank of America are expected to delve deeper into the digital currency sector, offering services such as digital asset custody and trading.
“As we look into 2025 and 2026, we are going to see a tremendous amount of interest from the TradFi players to get more involved in the crypto space,” Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association, told Bloomberg.
Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas acknowledged the challenges posed by this competition but highlighted the company’s advantage in terms of experience and knowledge. “I do think we are going to see more competition,” Haas said during a Goldman Sachs conference.
However, she pointed out that most banks and other potential competitors lack the deep understanding of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency security that Coinbase has developed, positioning the firm as a potential partner for traditional institutions looking to enter the space.
While the arrival of traditional financial institutions could increase competition, Smith does not see it as a threat to the crypto industry. Rather, she believes that the market will grow significantly as more players enter the space.
“I don’t think people in the industry are perceiving it as a threat because overall, the market will get much, much bigger,” she added.
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