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US yields: Real rates climb on Fed credibility – BNY Markets
BNY Markets’ John Velis observes that US real yields across the curve have risen sharply, driven more by expectations of further policy tightening than by inflation fears. Markets see the Fed and other central banks reacting to inflation, pushing long-term yields higher while breakevens stay rangebound. Robust growth, AI-related capex and contained term premia also support higher real rates.Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
RBA delivered a risk management hike – TD Securities
TD Securities Macro Research’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) note argues that the September 25bps hike to 4.60% was a risk-management move rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. The team expects no further RBA hikes in 2026 and for policy to remain on hold through 2027.Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
USDCAD: Fair value estimate stands at 1.4068 – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s analysts highlight a softer Canadian Dollar, trading defensively with G10 peers. Wider US–Canada yield spreads remain a headwind as Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations firm, with October priced for 14 bps and December for 37 bps of tightening.
Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
ECB’s Kazimir: Key for me will be January repricing
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), Peter Kazimir, said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the interest rate hike at the policy meeting earlier this month was “unavoidable”.Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
USD/IDR: External headwinds keep upside risks – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports USD/IDR briefly traded back towards 18,000 as higher Oil prices, elevated US Treasury yields and a firm Dollar weighed on the Indonesian Rupiah. Bank Indonesia has shifted intervention toward NDF and DNDF, seen as more effective and less reserve-intensive.Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
Portugal Business Confidence fell from previous 2.9 to 2.8 in September
Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
Iran’s Qalibaf: If Iran cannot sell its oil, no one can in the region
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf says during the European trading session on Tuesday that no one in the region shall sell its oil if Iran cannot sell its oil, according to state media, Reuters report.Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
Swiss Franc: One-off export surge tempers SNB response – Commerzbank
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that Switzerland’s strong 1.9% quarter-on-quarter growth was driven mainly by net exports, particularly to the Euro area excluding Germany, rather than a broad-based domestic upswing.
Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
Indonesian Rupiah holds ground despite inflation, oil risks
USD/IDR inches lower after opening at a bullish gap, trading around 18,050 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, the pair could rebound as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces headwinds stemming from broader economic pressures.Fxstreet
Tue, Sep 29
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