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Carry trade: War-driven gains question durability – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that G10 and Gelişen Piyasalar (EM) carry trades have delivered strong paper gains, helped by Iran-related market moves and high-yield currencies like the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso.
Fxstreet
Thu, Apr 16
BoE: Rates seen on hold through 2026 – ING
ING economist James Smith argues that recent UK GDP strength is likely overstated and expects UK growth to slow as inflation moves towards 4% and real wages fall. He highlights rising energy prices and weaker corporate pricing power as headwinds.Fxstreet
Thu, Apr 16
India: Price pressures and rupee controls – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao assesses early post-conflict data for India, highlighting stronger wholesale inflation and modestly higher CPI. She notes that the Wholesale Price Index is more sensitive to commodity and imported costs and is likely to rise further.Fxstreet
Thu, Apr 16
Fed's Williams: War shock is about prices, but also unavailable commodities
John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of New York, spoke in Midtown Manhattan on Thursday and said the Fed’s current interest-rate setting is well calibrated for an economy facing additional risks from the conflict in the Middle East.Fxstreet
Thu, Apr 16
Latin America: Diverging central bank paths – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas notes Latin American central banks are responding differently to renewed inflation risks. The easing cycle seems over in Chile and Peru, while Mexico’s central bank may deliver one last cut if Middle East tensions ease.Fxstreet
Thu, Apr 16
China: Growth beats expectations – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao, Shuang Ding and Hunter Chan note that China’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 5.0% year-on-year, above the 4.8% consensus, supported by strong exports and a rebound in fixed asset investment.Fxstreet
Thu, Apr 16
USD/ZAR: Vulnerable as risk and Gold support Rand – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts highlight a strong rebound in global risk appetite, benefiting the South African Rand. USD/ZAR is seen as vulnerable after failing to hold above its 200-day moving average at 17.00, with scope to grind toward 16.00.
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