アルファ・メタラジカル・リソーシズ (AMR) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：2027年見通し

要点

• アルファ・メタラジカル・リソーシズが発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後EBITDAは2,940万ドルとなり、出荷量が第2四半期の350万トンから390万トンに増加したことを受けて、前期の2,560万ドルから増加した。
• 原料炭セグメントの石炭売上原価は前期のトン当たり103.07ドルから106.93ドルに上昇した一方、原料炭の加重平均販売単価はトン当たり124.52ドルとほぼ横ばいとなった。
• 9月30日時点の手元流動性は、現金および現金同等物3億3,410万ドルを含め総額4億4,340万ドルとなった。ABLファシリティからの借入はなかった。
• 経営陣は2027年の出荷量を1,430万〜1,570万トン、石炭売上原価をトン当たり104〜110ドルと見込んでいる。
• アルファは2027年向けに国内顧客と350万トンの契約を締結しており、平均固定価格はトン当たり135.48ドルとなっている。
• 経営陣は、破損したDTAのスタッカー・リクレーマーについて修繕ではなく交換が必要になると見込んでおり、その期間は約2年と試算している。代替ターミナルの処理能力により計画出荷量は維持される見通しだが、物流面が大幅な数量上振れに対する制約要因として残る。

主要財務データ

大西洋指標やその他の価格決定方式に基づく輸出向け原料炭の販売単価はトン当たり107.03ドルとなり、第2四半期の109.08ドルから低下した。豪州指標に基づく石炭の販売単価はトン当たり150.46ドルと、前期の143.82ドルから上昇した。

9月30日時点で、アルファは現金および現金同等物3億3,410万ドルを保有し、7,500万ドルの最低流動性要件が適用されるABLの未使用枠は1億8,430万ドルだった。ABLからの借入はなく、信用状発行残高は4,070万ドルだった。

事業および業績動向

第3四半期の出荷数量は、第1四半期の360万トン、第2四半期の350万トンから改善した。経営陣は、投入コストのインフレペースは鈍化しているものの、コスト圧迫が引き続き業績に影響を与えていると述べた。

アルファは生産構成について、高揮発分炭を減らし、低揮発分および中揮発分の原料炭を増やす方向へシフトしている。ワイルドキャット鉱山は立ち上げが進んでおり、国内顧客からも関心が示されているものの、海上輸送市場向けに少なくとも数十万トンの低揮発分炭が追加供給可能になると見込まれている。

同社の2027年向け国内契約は350万トンを対象としており、平均固定価格はトン当たり135.48ドルとなっている。経営陣は、2027年の国内向け炭種構成において高揮発分炭の割合が2026年よりも高くなっており、それが平均契約価格に影響していると指摘した。

DTAで破損したスタッカー・リクレーマー「SR1」は、修繕ではなく交換される見通しである。経営陣は、専用設計、エンジニアリング、建設、据え付けに約2年かかる可能性があると試算した。アルファは交換作業が進む間、ハンプトン・ローズの他のターミナルの能力を活用する計画である。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

販管費ガイダンスには一時的費用および非現金性の株式報酬は含まれていない。持分法適用関連会社への出資には、DTA向けの現金拠出が含まれる。

2026年については、ガイダンスの中間値時点で原料炭出荷数量の87%が契約・価格決定済みであり、その平均価格はトン当たり126.69ドルとなっている。さらに12%が契約済みだが未値決めである。付随的一般炭は全量が契約・価格決定済みで、平均価格はトン当たり76.06ドルとなっている。

リスクと注視すべきポイント

• コスト圧力：原料炭セグメントの石炭売上原価は前期比で上昇した。経営陣の2027年ガイダンスでは、ディーゼル燃料価格が1ガロン当たり5ドル台前半から半ばで推移することを想定している。
• DTAの操業支障：破損したスタッカー・リクレーマーの交換には約2年かかる可能性がある。経営陣はこれに伴う多額の設備投資は見込んでいないものの、保険金受取の時期を正確に見極めるのは現段階では時期尚早としている。
• 物流能力：代替ターミナルの活用により柔軟性は得られるものの、現在の計画生産ペースを大幅に上回る余地はないと経営陣は述べている。出荷目標を達成するには、ターミナルおよび鉄道の安定した機能・運行が不可欠となる。
• 石炭市場の変動性：経営陣は地政学的紛争、世界的な景気動向、世界的な鉄鋼需要の低迷を不確実性の要因として挙げた。
• 指数の動き：豪州産プレミアム低揮発分炭指数は9月30日時点の1メトリックトン当たり272.10ドルから11月5日時点で262.20ドルへと下落した一方、米東海岸指数の動きは石炭の品質によってまちまちだった。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣は、投入コスト上昇の大部分はすでにアルファのコスト構造に反映されており、2027年については現在のランレートから大幅に増加することはないと見込んでいると述べた。アルファは事業全体で約2,000万〜2,200万ガロンのディーゼル燃料を消費するため、燃料価格はコスト面で重要な感応度要因となっている。

生産の上振れ余地について、経営陣は他の輸出ターミナルを追加で利用できるものの、依然としてDTAが制約要因になっていると述べた。アルファは計画している2027年のランレートを十分に達成可能とみているが、ターミナルおよび鉄道の確実な運行・稼働実績がなければ、上限を大きく超える上振れは見込めないとみている。

ワイルドキャット鉱山の立ち上げにより、低揮発分炭の供給力が高まる見通しである。経営陣は、販売が具体的に豪州指標と米東海岸指標のどちらに連動しているかではなく、正味のリターン（純収益）を重視して商業上の判断を下すと説明した。

資本配分に関して、アルファは引き続き取引案件の可能性を検討しているものの、財務面での利益押し上げ効果（アクリーション）に加えて、地理的および品質面でのシナジーを必須条件としている。経営陣は、現時点でこれら3つの条件をすべて満たす案件はほとんどないと述べた。

計画されている2027年の開発支出には、マクルーア選炭工場およびディープ・マイン41を支えるバージニア州での選炭残渣堆積場工事、ロード・フォーク52向けケプラー選炭工場での工事（可能性あり）、長期プロジェクトに対する限定的な先行作業が含まれている。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may begin.

Emily O'Quinn

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the company's third quarter 2026 earnings release and the associated SEC filing. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures.

On the call today, I'm joined by Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson; and Chief Financial Officer, Todd Munsey, who will provide prepared remarks. Also participating on the call are our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Dan Horn. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer questions.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.

Charles Eidson

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we released our definitive third quarter financial results, which include adjusted EBITDA of $29.4 million and 3.9 million tons shipped. Our third quarter volumes improved compared to the first 2 quarters of the year, which were 3.6 million and 3.5 million tons, respectively. Cost pressures continue to influence our financial results, and we remain committed to managing these cost challenges and continually evaluating the portfolio against the needs of the metallurgical coal market.

Speaking of the market, we have completed our annual budgeting process that culminates in the operational guidance expectations we issued today. I'll let Todd cover those in detail, but it's important to note that our 2027 guidance reflects current expectations for the coming calendar year, which includes our analysis of potential financial impacts and 2027 terminal capabilities at DTA in Newport News. Following the storm-related damage that occurred in June, DTA management has worked diligently to keep operations moving and collaborate with the various parties about potential go-forward plans.

As a result of these conversations, DTA believes the stacker reclaimer referred to as SR1 will need to be replaced as opposed to repaired, and they've been in close contact with DTA's insurance provider about covering the replacement cost as well as potentially certain other expenses incurred due to the damage. As such, it's important to note that we do not anticipate significant capital outlays in association with the stacker reclaimer replacement process. As far as timing is concerned, a total replacement of the stacker reclaimer would be a fully custom build requiring specialized design, engineering, construction and installation.

Such work will likely require a lengthy time line, with current estimates in the 2-year ballpark. This is why we've worked so hard to establish a logistical framework that minimizes our disruption -- the disruption to our sales and logistics processes and allows us to keep coal moving to our customers while DTA addresses the damaged stacker reclaimer. This includes a plan to also utilize our throughput capacity at other Hampton Roads terminals in addition to DTA. As evidenced by our more normalized third quarter shipment volumes, we are optimistic about our ability to move all the tons we need to in 2027 and beyond.

As we look to next year, our guidance includes 3.5 million tons that we plan to sell to domestic customers in 2027 at an average price of $135.48 per ton. We're pleased to announce the results of the domestic negotiations, which are fixed-price annual contracts. Each year's negotiation is a little different depending on the market backdrop and a variety of factors. For example, high-vol made up a greater proportion of our 2027 domestic quality mix than in 2026, which influences the average price achieved for the total domestic book. All in all, we're pleased with these commitments, and we look forward to building the rest of our 2027 sales around opportunities in the seaborne market.

As usual, our teams are doing great work throughout the Alpha organization, and several operations have received recognition for their efforts. On the environmental front, our Paramont team in Virginia was recently honored with 3 Excellence in Mining awards from the Metallurgical Coal Producers Association. Virginia Energy also awarded them with 3 Safety Awards at their recent ceremony. Both of Alpha's mine rescue teams continue stacking wins as well, including first and second place finishes across many categories of competition in the National Mine Rescue contest that was held in August. We're extremely proud of our Paramont team that earned the top honor of National Grand Champion this year with a perfect score for the competition. These miners continually train, practice and challenge themselves so they're prepared to respond when their skills are needed. So congratulations to all those team members.

I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a review of our financial results for the third quarter.

Todd Munsey

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $29.4 million, up from $25.6 million in the second quarter. We sold 3.9 million tons in Q3, up from 3.5 million tons in Q2. Met segment realizations increased quarter-over-quarter with an average realization of $121.09 in the third quarter compared to $118.71 in the second quarter. Export Met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the third quarter realized $107.03 per ton, while export coal priced on the Australian indices realized $150.46 per ton.

These results are compared to realizations of $109.08 per ton and $143.82 per ton, respectively, in the second quarter. The realization for our metallurgical sales in the third quarter was a total weighted average of $124.52 per ton, roughly flat against the second quarter average of $124.30 per ton. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the Met segment were also essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at $79.44 per ton in Q3 compared to $79.36 per ton in Q2. Cost of coal sales for our Met segment increased to $106.93 per ton in the third quarter, up from $103.07 per ton in the second quarter. SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items, increased to $15 million in the third quarter compared to $13.7 million in the second quarter.

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. As of September 30, we had $334.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as compared to $338.5 million of cash and short-term investments as of June 30. We had $184.3 million in unused availability under our ABL at the end of the third quarter, partially offset by a minimum required liquidity of $75 million. As of the end of September, Alpha had total liquidity of $443.4 million, down slightly from $447.8 million at the end of June. CapEx for the third quarter was $33.8 million, down from $45.1 million in Q2. Cash provided by operating activities was $46.9 million in the third quarter, up from $39.9 million in the second quarter. As of September 30, our ABL facility had no borrowings and $40.7 million of letters of credit outstanding.

Looking ahead, we issued 2027 operational guidance this morning. For sales volumes, we expect to ship between 13.1 million and 14.1 million metallurgical tons as well as another 1.2 million to 1.6 million tons of incidental thermal coal, bringing total 2027 shipment expectations to a range of 14.3 million to 15.7 million tons for the year. For 2027 cost of coal sales, we are guiding to a range of $104 to $110 per ton. Selling, general and administrative costs are expected to be between $53 million and $59 million in 2027, excluding nonrecurring expenses and noncash stock compensation. Idle expense is expected to be between $25 million and $33 million. We anticipate 2027 net cash interest income of between $2 million and $4 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of $148 million to $162 million.

Capital expenditures, including carryover development and maintenance capital, are expected to be in the range of $145 million to $165 million. Contributions to equity affiliates are expected to be in the range of $28 million to $37 million, which include cash contributions for DTA. Lastly, we are projecting a 2027 cash tax rate of between 0% and 5%.

In terms of our committed position for 2026, at the midpoint of guidance, 87% of our metallurgical tonnage in the Met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $126.69. Another 12% of our Met tonnage for the year is committed, but not yet priced. The thermal byproduct portion of the Met segment is fully committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $76.06.

Coal markets remain subject to uncertainty and volatility resulting from geopolitical conflicts and global economic conditions. Improving indicators and manufacturing conditions across key Alpha markets suggest that economic conditions are stable with almost all in growth territory. While global steel demand remains weak, supply related factors such as mine closure announcements temporarily influenced metallurgical coal indices to rise toward the end of the third quarter with further volatility continuing after the quarter close.

The Australian Premium Low Vol index increased from $244 per metric ton on July 1 to $272.10 per metric ton on September 30. The U.S. East Coast Low Vol index rose from $190 per metric ton at the beginning of the quarter to $210 per metric ton by the end of September. The U.S. East Coast High Vol A index increased from $157 per metric ton at the start of the quarter to $195 per metric ton at the quarter's close. And the U.S. East Coast High Vol B index rose from $147 per metric ton to $170 per metric ton at the end of the quarter. Since then, the Australian Premium Low Vol index has decreased to $262.20 per metric ton as of November 5, representing a drop of roughly 4% since quarter close.

U.S. East Coast Low Vol is unchanged from quarter close, at $210 per ton. U.S. East Coast High Vol A has declined about 3% to $190 per ton, while High Vol B has risen slightly to $174.50 per ton as of November 5. In the seaborne thermal market, the API2 index was $115.50 per metric ton at the beginning of July and increased to $141.40 per metric ton at the end of September. Since then, the API2 index has moved down to $136.30 per metric ton as of November 5.

With that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from George Eadie with UBS.

質疑応答

George Eadie

Can I ask on the cost front? So cash costs only 2% higher year-on-year at midpoint, even if I adjust for marginally higher midpoint sales volumes. Can you maybe just talk through what goes into that and sort of potential cost sensitivities for things like diesel? And I guess it sort of seems like a very low year-on-year cost increase given a lot in this sector are talking about a lot of input and broader sort of cost pressures.

Charles Eidson

George, this is Andy. I appreciate the question. Yes, we're actually pretty pleased with where our cost guidance is coming out for next year, although it is up a bit. I mean we've really seen the vast majority of the input cost impacts have already found their way into the system for us. So again, we would hope that there would be some relief on the diesel side. Hopefully, that situation gets resolved sometime in the near future.

And even then, it will take a while to work its way through the system. But we're just -- we're not saying that the input cost increases have flatlined, but the rate of increase has tailed back quite a bit. And once you bake in the impact of the diesel and all the oil adjuncts, I think we're -- currently, our run rate is pretty well reflective of that. So next year, we don't see a material amount of increase from there.

George Eadie

What diesel price did you assume in guidance for '27, Andy?

Charles Eidson

Off the top of my head, I don't know. Yes, I think it was low to mid-5s on a per gallon cost.

George Eadie

Okay. And then like what's the sensitivity, if you were to sort of estimate ballpark per ton on your cash cost, if that went back to sort of, say, mid-3s, like what's the potential production cash cost?

Charles Eidson

Well, I'll leave you to do the math on that, but we do run in the low 20 million gallons of diesel across all operations. So 20 million to 22 million gallons. So you could figure what the sensitivity is on that across all the tons.

George Eadie

Okay. Yes, that's perfect. And then just one more, sort of getting back to the 16 million ton per annum levels. Can you talk through how that looks? And if DTA sort of being down for the 2-year ballpark you guys flagged, is a constraint? Or I guess another way of asking was if markets got a lot stronger next year, could you push beyond that 15.7 million upper end, do you think? Or like what is the constraining limit to higher volumes for you guys at the moment?

Charles Eidson

Yes. I mean DTA obviously will be a constraint. Our sales and logistics team has done a really nice job, as I mentioned in the comments -- the prepared comments. They've done a nice job of finding flexibility and optionality with other export terminal access. So there will be a point in which we can't expand any further. I'm not going to throw out a number for that because, again, the team is pretty creative in finding new paths to get tons where we need them to go. But I think we're comfortable with our current run rate. I don't think there's a huge amount of upside to that.

And we're going to need the terminals to operate well, we're going to need the railroads to perform well to hit all of our numbers the way we want to. But I think we're going to be able to get there. And it's not going to look that different year-over-year comparing to 2026. From a quality perspective, it's going to look a little bit different because, again, I think we are moving around in our -- as has been our plan, we are shifting as a lot of other folks are. We've been working on a multiyear plan to shift more of our production from higher-ranked coals from the low-vol and mid-vol and a little bit less on the high-vol side. So that will continue to develop. But I think logistically, all of that fits pretty well into what we've got planned for 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities.

Nick Giles

It was good to hear that there's more high-vol coal in the domestic mix, which I assume leaves more low-vol coals to send into the seaborne market. So I was wondering if you could just quantify that mix shift, maybe how many incremental tons of low-vol would you be able to send -- export next year?

Charles Eidson

Nick, I'll throw that one over to Dan. That one is definitely -- he's got the numbers at his fingertips there.

Daniel Horn

Thanks, Andy. Well, let's start by saying that the high-vol that moved into the domestic market, that's coal that is a little -- let's say, a little lower value coal, and that was reflected in the overall comments that we have there in the pricing. But as we ramp up the low-vol mine, our new Wildcat mine, it's kind of dynamic. So you can't really compare our portfolio in '26 to what it's going to look like in '27. So as Wildcat ramps up, we'll have more low-vol available.

And broadly speaking, that's -- at this moment, that's all available for the seaborne market, but we've had a lot of interest in the domestic market, too, as it ramps up. But I won't give you a number, but it's several hundred thousand tons at least that would be available to go seaborne easily as well as our usual mix of high-vol and quite a bit of medium-vol, which is always sought after.

Nick Giles

Got it. Okay. I mean any sense for how much of that would be PLV linked? Or I guess, kind of what do the commercial discussions look like today in terms of getting more tons sold on a PLV basis?

Daniel Horn

Yes. I don't have -- there's -- I'll say this, there's quite a bit of interest from customers that we would sell against the Aussie indices, but I can't quantify that. The Wildcat coal is a premium coal that should -- that will achieve a premium to a lot of other U.S. low-vols, we think. So whether we sell it against an Aussie index or very strongly against the U.S. East Coast index, I mean, we're happy. We focus on the net return, not just the index.

Nick Giles

Makes sense. No, I appreciate that. Maybe just shifting gears to the stacker reclaimer. It's good to hear that you feel like that's fully covered from an insurance perspective. But how should we think about the timing of those insurance reimbursements versus any capital outlays that may be required? Or said differently, is there a scenario where you might have to invest in the new stacker reclaimer and kind of wait a few quarters for the insurance reimbursements to come in?

Charles Eidson

Yes. I think it's probably a little too early to comment on that one, Nick. I don't expect there to be too much of a sequencing problem from that respect, certainly not a multi-quarter type of reimbursement gap. Obviously, you may have a few weeks or a few months, but we're pretty pleased with how our insurance -- or DTA's insurance carriers has responded thus far. They've been very helpful and constructive in helping us move along this process relatively quickly. So yes, I don't expect an impact. But again, it's probably too early in the process to be making too many prognostications there.

Nick Giles

Okay. No, fair enough, Andy. Maybe just one last one from me on the capital allocation front. Would just be good to get an update on what you're seeing among your kind of smaller peers in Central App. Are there any opportunities out there to pick up some tons at a discount? Or have you heard any rumblings of kind of more capacity that's come offline?

Charles Eidson

Really not in a position to comment on any of those folks. I mean they'll have to speak for themselves. There's -- as we've always taken the position, we look at anything and everything. We want things to be a good strategic fit. If things are available, we want it to be either -- or not either, but a combination of geographically synergistic, quality synergistic and accretive from a financial standpoint. And those boxes, all 3 boxes are kind of hard to check right now when you look around the chessboard.

But there are some things out there that we can look at. But again, we're really focused on managing our own portfolio, particularly in markets like this, making sure that we're optimizing our outcomes and optimizing both the productivity and the profitability of the portfolio.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with StoneX.

Nathan Martin

I had a question on DTA as well. I mean just given the fact that you said the repair/replacement time line could be extended into a year or 2. Just curious, do you see any opportunity to improve logistics or lower transportation or port costs in the meantime?

Charles Eidson

In the meantime, before we get to a repaired DTA? Probably not. I mean that's more of a focus on just getting the tons moved where we can as best we can. On the other side of DTA and during the repair, could there be some opportunities? Yes, I mean, any time you're looking at older equipment that's going to have to be replaced for any reason, you're going to hope to find some opportunities to improve things and whether it's from a throughput capacity standpoint or from a cost reduction. So -- but that will -- that's for future conversations as we actually get into the nuts and bolts of mechanically fixing and replacing the SR.

Nathan Martin

All right. Understood, Andy. I appreciate that. And then maybe looking at CapEx for '27. Guidance falls roughly flat year-over-year. I noticed an updated slide in your deck with kind of the breakdown there, but maybe you can provide a little more detail around the development projects you plan to spend capital on in '27 because I see that's kind of ticked up a little bit there.

Charles Eidson

Yes. I mean some of that is related to existing operations. We do have some refuse impoundment needs in Virginia that will obviously extend the life and help with managing the waste cost at the McClure prep plant, where Deep Mine 41 is handled. So that's obviously something that we're very focused on. Likewise, some potential work at the Kepler prep plant, where Road Fork 52 reports. And Road Fork 52, Deep Mine 41 definitely being at the top of our list as far as the portfolio of mines that we have.

Any development -- any other development, we're looking at other -- kind of our next projects, which are a little bit longer dated, a couple, 3 years out, just doing a little bit of prospective work there, not necessarily committing to a project, but making sure things are moving to the extent where if we want to pursue a project, we're not losing any time. So not a whole lot to report on that just yet.

Nathan Martin

All right. I appreciate that. And then maybe a final question for Dan. Dan, how should we think about the quality mix of what you guys have left to sell here for '26? I think you're roughly 80% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance, so seemingly a few tons left to put to bed. How should we think about that as we head to the end of the year?

Daniel Horn

Yes, Nate, probably the typical blend. Maybe a little heavier with the low-vol. As Wildcat ramps up, we're producing a little more of that. So I don't think -- probably the same roughly blend. Still a fair half high-vol maybe and maybe the rest mid and low, something like that. But again, with -- going forward -- I'm sorry, going forward, more low. Our plan is and it will happen that we're going to have more low-vol in our mix and more medium-vol as we go forward. That's certainly the plan, and less high-vol. But the rest of the year is pretty well known. It's right in front of us.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now turn the call over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.

Charles Eidson

Well, thanks, everyone, for dialing into the call and checking in online. We appreciate your interest in Alpha, and we hope you all have a great weekend.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.