クーパー・スタンダード (CPS) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：EBITDA見通しを4000万ドル下方修正

主要なポイント

• 2026年第3四半期の売上高は、良好な販売数量・製品構成（ミックス）および為替相場の追い風に支えられ、前年同期比1.9%増の7億860万ドルとなった。
• 調整後EBITDAは前年同期の5,330万ドルに対し5,280万ドルとなった。原材料コストや賃金の上昇、全般的なインフレが、調達やリーン生産方式、販管費（SG&A）の削減効果を相殺した。
• クーパー・スタンダードは、主にコモディティ価格の上昇、顧客への価格転嫁（リカバリー）の遅れ、継続的なインフレを理由に、通期の調整後EBITDA見通しの中央値を約4,000万ドル引き下げた。
• 新規受注純額は第3四半期に1億4,900万ドル、年初来9カ月間（第3四半期累計）で3億9,500万ドルに達し、同社の通期目標である4億ドルをほぼ達成した。
• 経営陣は、コモディティコストの価格転嫁や政府からの関税還付の時期に不確実性が残るものの、売掛金および棚卸資産の減少に支えられ、第4四半期のフリーキャッシュフローは黒字になると見込んでいる。
• 9月30日時点の総流動性は3億ドルを超えており、これには1億1,230万ドルの現預金と、未実行のアセット・ベースト・レンディング（ABL）融資枠による利用可能額1億9,310万ドルが含まれている。

主要財務データ

事業および営業実績

クーパー・スタンダードは、リーン生産方式の取り組みやその他のコスト削減策により第3四半期に900万ドルのコストを削減し、さらに販管費（SG&A）を400万ドル圧縮したと発表した。顧客サービスおよび業務執行は引き続き高水準を維持し、顧客スコアカードの99%、新プログラム立ち上げスコアカードの97%がグリーン（合格基準）となった。

新規立ち上げ案件は2025年第3四半期比で2倍以上に増加し、足元の立ち上げコストを押し上げた。経営陣によると、第4四半期は通常立ち上げが落ち着く時期であり、製造面での取り組みやサプライヤーからのリベート（割戻金）による寄与がより本格化する見通しである。

インフレは引き続き収益の主な抑制要因となった。第3四半期の調整後EBITDAは、原材料コストの増加で1,500万ドル、賃金上昇および全般的なインフレで1,200万ドルの下押し圧力を受けた。これらの圧力は、関税負担の軽減による1,300万ドル、調達およびリーンのコスト削減による900万ドル、ならびに販管費の削減による400万ドルのプラス効果を上回った。

同社は年初来9カ月間で3億9,500万ドルの新規受注純額を獲得した。経営陣によれば、これらの案件の大部分は追加の設備投資を最小限に抑え、既存の生産能力を活用して立ち上げることが可能である。また、数量や製品構成（ミックス）の影響を受けるものの、過去に言及された約10億ドル規模の新規受注案件が2027年から2030年にかけて順次立ち上がる見込みである。

クーパー・スタンダードは人工知能（AI）の活用も拡大している。経営陣は、ビジネスプロセス・オーケストレーションの取り組みにより、人員やコストを同等に増やすことなく、今後数年間で10億ドル以上の増収に対応できる可能性があると述べた。

経営陣の業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、2026年通期の調整後EBITDA見通しの中央値を約4,000万ドル引き下げた。改定後の見通しにおいても、調整後EBITDAは前年比で約3,000万ドルの増加、利益率は約100ベーシスポイント（bp）の改善が見込まれている。

通期の製造およびサプライチェーンにおけるコスト削減額は、当初計画を約1,000万ドル下回る約8,000万ドルとなる見込みである。コモディティコストの上昇、顧客への価格転嫁の遅れ、インフレの高進により、前四半期の見通しと比較してさらに合計3,000万ドル引き下げられた。

同社は2026年に発生したコモディティコスト上昇分の大部分を回収できると見込んでいるが、一部の回収は2027年にずれ込むと予想されている。改定されたガイダンスでは、第4四半期の原油価格を1バレルあたり約100ドルと想定している。

設備投資額は引き続き売上高の2%〜3%と予想されている。また経営陣は、第4四半期のフリーキャッシュフローが黒字になると見込んでおり、通期の現金支出を伴う事業再編費用として3,000万ドル〜3,500万ドルの目標を維持している。

より長期的な視点として、経営陣は2030年までに調整後EBITDAマージン15%を達成することに引き続き注力している。売上高については、2026年の約28億ドルから、2030年または2031年までに35億ドル〜37億ドルへと拡大する道筋を示した。

リスクおよび注視項目

• 原油価格が同社の当初想定である約65ドルを1バレルあたり30〜40ドル上回る水準で推移しており、ゴムやプラスチックの原料コストを押し上げている。
• アルミニウムのコストも、サプライチェーンや輸送の混乱、ならびに中東紛争を巡る不確実性を背景に上昇した。
• 顧客への価格転嫁メカニズムにはタイムラグが伴い、コモディティのインフレが長期化すれば費用回収がさらに遅れる可能性がある。
• 第4四半期の業績見通しは、製造面でのコスト削減、サプライヤーからのリベート、商務上の価格回収、および地域ごとの生産構成（ミックス）に一部左右される。
• 運転資本の実績は、政府からの関税還付やコモディティコスト回収のタイミングによって影響を受ける可能性がある。
• 西欧地域は依然として収益性における課題となっている。第3四半期の事業再編費用の中で最大のものは、同地域でのさらなる人員削減に関連するものであった。

アナリスト質疑応答（Q&A）の要点

経営陣は、報告された原材料コストおよび全般的なインフレの数値がグロス（総額）ベースであることを明確にした。顧客への価格転嫁および価格調整は、数量・製品構成（ミックス）の項目に含まれている。

第4四半期の利益改善のペースについて問われた経営陣は、製造面でのコスト削減に強い自信を示した。立ち上げ案件の減少、完了したプロジェクトからのフル稼働効果、調達リベートなどを要因として挙げた。一方で、商務上の価格回収や将来のコモディティ価格については予測がより困難であると述べた。

経営陣は、11月の利払い後であっても、売掛金の季節的な回収と棚卸資産の圧縮に支えられ、第4四半期のフリーキャッシュフローが黒字となる見込みであることを確認した。

同社はアセット・ベースト・レンディング（ABL）融資枠を1億8,000万ドルから2億ドルに変更し、満期を2031年9月まで延長するとともに、借入スプレッドおよび手数料を引き下げた。経営陣は、同枠が四半期末時点で未実行のままであると述べた。

事業再編について、経営陣は第3四半期の費用が主として西欧における人員削減の合意を反映したものであると説明した。費用の大半は即時に現金で支払われたのではなく引当計上されており、支払いは今後数カ月から2027年にかけて行われる見通しである。

決算説明会（アーニングスコール）トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded and the webcast will be available on the Cooper Standard website for replay later today. I would now like to turn the call over to Roger Hendrickson, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Roger Hendriksen

Thanks, Mel, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you spending some time with us this morning. The members of our leadership team who will be speaking with you on the call this morning are Jeff Edwards, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and John Banas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I need to remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. While they are made based on current factual information and certain assumptions and plans that management currently believes to be reasonable, these statements do involve risks and uncertainties. For more information on forward-looking statements, we ask that you refer to slide 3 of this presentation and the company's statements included in periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures.

Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix to the presentation. With those formalities out of the way, I'll turn the call over to Jeff Edwards.

Jeffrey Edwards

Thanks, Roger, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate the opportunity to review our third quarter results and, as always, provide an update on our business and outlook going forward. So just beginning on slide 5, I'd like to highlight some of the third quarter data points that we believe are reflective of our continued outstanding operational performance and our ongoing commitment to our company values. In terms of operations and customer service, we continue to deliver outstanding performance on both fronts. On product quality and service, 99% of our customer scorecards were green in the quarter. For new program launches, we continue to deliver strong performance as well, with 97% of those scorecards green, with significantly enhanced launch activity. So again, a shout-out to our plant managers and plant employees as they continue to deliver outstanding performance and value for our customers through their dedication and personal commitment to excellence. I truly appreciate everything they're doing.

And as always, the most important operating metric we have is safety performance, and that continues to be excellent. During the third quarter, we had a total incident rate of 0.27 reportable incidents per 200,000 hours worked. That's well below the world-class benchmark of 0.35. Importantly, 36 of our plants have maintained a perfect safety record with a total incident rate of 0 for the first 9 months of this year. That's 61% of all of our production facilities achieving a perfect safety score and demonstrating their ultimate goal of 0 safety incidents is certainly achievable. I'm proud of our entire global team for their focus and achievement in this important operating measure. In terms of cost optimization, we continue to make progress with our manufacturing and purchasing teams, and they delivered $9 million of savings through lean initiatives and other cost-saving programs.

This was despite an increase in launch costs resulting from higher-than-planned launch activity, partially related to the recent conquest business that we've booked and mid-program transitions. Total plant launches in the quarter were up more than 100% compared to the third quarter of last year. We also made solid progress in terms of optimizing our fixed cost with an additional $4 million reduction in SG&A expense during the quarter. Finally, we're continuing to leverage world-class service, technical capabilities, and our award-winning innovations to win significant new business. During the third quarter of 2026, we in fact received $149 million in net new business awards, which are expected to drive profitable new growth as they launch over the next few years. Turning to slide 6, just to put this in context, this brings the total net new business awards for the first 9 months of the year to $395 million, essentially already achieving our full-year 2026 goal of $400 million. As you can see in the chart, our new business awards have been accelerating over the past few years as the financial strength of the company has been improving.

The good news is that we have available capacity to launch much of this new business over the coming years with minimal incremental capital investment. We're proud to be the supplier that our customers are increasingly turning to for quality components, consistency of delivery, and collaboration on critical design and development of new technologies. With these awards in hand, driving incremental variable contribution margins and a strong commercial pipeline for new business wins ahead, we are increasingly confident that we will be able to execute our plans and achieve our longer-term strategic financial targets for growth, margins, and return on capital. Turning to slide 7, in addition to the new business awards, we continue to garner recognition for accomplishments in quality, culture, and technology innovation. This slide shows just a few of the awards we've received this year from customers, respected industry associations, and the media. We believe these awards are a direct reflection of our special culture here at Cooper Standard. I could not be more proud of our team, and I want to thank our 22,000 employees worldwide for their continued commitment to our core values and for their continuing achievements.

Now let me turn the call over to John to discuss the financial results for the quarter.

Jonathan Banas

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In the next few slides, I'll provide some details on our financial results for the quarter and discuss our cash flows, liquidity, and aspects of our balance sheet and capital structure, and then provide an update to our 2026 full-year outlook. On slide 9, we show a summary of our results for the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 with comparisons to the same period last year. Third quarter 2026 sales were $708.6 million, an increase of 1.9% compared to the third quarter of 2025. The increase was driven primarily by favorable volume and mix and to a lesser extent favorable foreign exchange. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $52.8 million compared to the $53.3 million we reported in the third quarter of 2025. On a U.S. GAAP basis, we reported a net loss of $20.4 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to a net loss of $7.6 million in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusting for restructuring expense, net of tax from both periods, adjusted net loss for the third quarter this year was $2.1 million, or $0.11 per share, compared to an adjusted net loss of $4.4 million, or $0.24 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Our capital expenditures in the third quarter of this year totaled $16 million, or 2.3% of sales. This was higher than the prior-year period due to increased automation and launch-related investments, but in line with our expected full-year run rate of 2% to 3% of sales. We continue to exercise discipline around our capital investments, consistent with our goal of maximizing returns on invested capital. For the first 9 months of the year, sales were $2.1 billion, up 2.3% year-over-year, primarily due to favorable foreign exchange. Adjusted EBITDA for the first 9 months was $157.8 million, and adjusted net loss was $9.6 million. Additional detail on the drivers of the year-over-year changes for the quarter and the first 9 months are shown in the charts on the next couple of slides.

Let's move to slide 10. For third quarter sales, favorable volume and mix, net of customer price adjustments and recoveries, had a positive impact on sales of approximately $9 million compared to the same period a year ago. Foreign exchange was a tailwind of approximately $4 million in the quarter versus the third quarter of 2025. Our third quarter adjusted EBITDA benefited from an adjustment to compensation-related expense, reflecting anticipated incentive compensation payouts now being lower than originally planned. Reduced gross tariffs and duties, lower SG&A expense, and lean initiatives and purchasing positively contributed $13 million, $4 million, and $9 million, respectively, compared to the third quarter of last year. More than offsetting these improvements, however, were $13 million of unfavorable volume and mix, net of customer price adjustments and recoveries, $15 million of higher material costs, and $12 million in increased wages and general inflation. The material cost inflation was driven primarily by oil prices, which have remained between $30 to $40 per barrel higher than we planned coming into the year, impacting the pricing of our rubber and plastic feedstocks. Aluminum prices were also higher, driven by supply chain and transport disruption, and continued uncertainty related to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

We continue to believe we will recover most of these incremental input costs via the index-based contracts and agreements we have in place, as well as through ongoing commercial negotiations. As we said in our last call, the timing of recoveries is still somewhat dependent upon commodity price trends, as well as the time lags inherent in current agreements with our customers. As we've seen in the third quarter, continued elevated commodity prices could further delay the full realization of expected recoveries. Moving to slide 11. Looking at adjusted EBITDA for the first 9 months of the year, our teams have generated $40 million of savings and increased efficiencies in purchasing, supply chain optimization, and lean manufacturing, which continue to benefit our results. Lower-than-planned compensation-related expense versus the same period last year, reductions in SG&A expense of $4 million, and $5 million in savings from past restructuring initiatives were all positive factors for the first 9 months. Nonetheless, these positive items were more than offset by $27 million in wage increases and general inflation, $25 million of higher material costs, $21 million of unfavorable volume and mix, net of customer price adjustments and recoveries, and prior-year royalty settlements of $10 million that did not repeat. Turning to slide 12. In terms of free cash flow, which is defined as cash provided by operations minus CapEx, we had an outflow of $10.8 million in the period. The year-over-year change reflects lower cash earnings and investments in working capital driven primarily by elevated material costs and general inflation, as well as increased cash taxes, cash paid for restructuring initiatives, and capital investments supporting new program launches and automation initiatives.

We ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $112.3 million. Coupled with $193.1 million of availability on a recently amended ABL facility, which remains untapped, we had total liquidity in excess of $300 million as of September 30, 2026. We were pleased to successfully complete an amendment to our ABL during the third quarter that enhances our capital structure. The amendment increases the total facility from $180 million up to $200 million, providing additional liquidity and flexibility to support our ongoing operations and strategic priorities. The amendment also extends the stated maturity to September 2031 and improves the financing economics through reduced borrowing spreads and fees. We believe that our current cash and available liquidity, combined with expected future cash generation, provides us with sufficient resources to support the continuing execution of our strategic plans to deliver profitable growth, lower our net leverage, and maximize returns on our invested capital. Turning to slide 13. I'll conclude my prepared comments with a few details on our near-term outlook and the revisions to our 2026 guidance. Following our results for the first 3 quarters, we have reduced our outlook for full-year adjusted EBITDA by approximately $40 million at the midpoint.

In the bridge on the right side of slide 13, we break out and quantify the key variables that we expect will drive a solid $30 million or 100-basis-point year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, despite the incredibly challenging market and industry conditions. Cost savings from manufacturing and supply chain lean initiatives are now expected to be approximately $80 million for the full year, which is about $10 million less than our original plan. More significant, however, are increased impacts from commodity costs and delays in customer recoveries as well as continued higher inflation. Combined, these items further reduce our outlook by approximately $30 million for the full year compared to expectations last quarter. While the timing of some of the commodity cost recoveries will now push into 2027, we still expect to recover the majority of the commodity cost increases we will incur in 2026. Jeff will provide a bit more color on these efforts in a few minutes. This concludes my prepared section, so I'll turn it back over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Edwards

Thanks, John. In this last portion of our call, I'd like to again comment on our high-level strategic imperatives and how we believe these are positioning us for continuing profitable growth over the next few years. So please turn to slide 15. The charts on slide 15 provide, we think, a good summary of the progress that we've made in restoring the financial strength of the company over the past few years. Gross profit and adjusted EBITDA have increased steadily despite reduced or flat production volumes in our 2 largest operating regions. Our continued operational excellence and strategic execution have driven the improved results, and we believe there is certainly more to come. Turning to slide 16. Over the next 3 years, we expect to benefit from the continued optimization of our cost structure, variable contribution margins on new programs now being launched, incremental sales of value-added innovations, future launches of the record new business awards we've received over the past 2 years, and further efficiencies as we continue to leverage the digital transformation of virtually every function across our business. Moving to slide 17, to this point, we were an early adopter of using AI tools to drive operational efficiencies, beginning with our FormulaLink technology that launched in 2020 and revolutionized our process for developing new material compounds.

This was followed in 2021 with the launch of LiveLine, our proprietary automated process control technology that has reduced scrap, improved product quality, and improved the overall efficiency of our extrusion line operations. And over the past few years, we began the rollout of CSAI Star that is essentially a repository of the many AI agents that have been developed within our various operations and makes them available for use company-wide. But the next phase of our AI journey, the business process orchestration phase, has the potential to contribute and streamline functions across our entire value chain. Development of this capability is already well underway and is being led by Chris Couch, whom we have recently appointed as our Chief AI Officer, in addition to his role as President of the Fluid Handling business segment and Chief Technology Officer. We're extremely excited about this latest AI initiative and the potential for even further operating efficiencies it is expected to drive as we continue to grow our business over the next several years.

We believe this process orchestration capability will enable us to scale our top line by more than $1 billion over the next several years without requiring a commensurate increase in headcount and costs. Stay tuned as this initiative rolls out. The financial impact will be very exciting. Turning to slide 18, before wrapping up this morning, I want to provide a bit of color on how we're addressing the ongoing inflation crisis that is impacting our business and frankly the industry. Believe me when I tell you we're making every effort to turn this current crisis into future opportunity, and I am confident that we will be a stronger company as a result of what we're doing. Since this was the first time that our index-based commercial agreements have been tested in a significant way, we're taking the opportunity to learn from the experience and make meaningful, positive adjustments to those agreements. We are actively engaged in productive discussions with our customers to improve the timing of cost recoveries going forward and to refine the indices used in these agreements.

We believe the discussions will lead to a further de-risking of our business in future periods of hyperinflation, but it will also enhance our recoveries in the near term. We're also taking the opportunity to push back on traditional practices for things like financing customer tooling, which unduly burden the balance sheet of Cooper Standard and, frankly, all suppliers. We expect to drive positive changes related to customer tooling that will enhance our ability to generate cash from operations going forward. We believe we are appropriately managing and improving all aspects of our business that we can control in this dynamic environment. As a result, we expect to be a stronger company and deliver improved results again in 2027. Turning to slide 19, to summarize and conclude our message this morning, we believe that we remain on track to achieve our longer-term strategic financial targets over the next 3 to 5 years that we provided you. In view of recent industry dynamics, we're taking the opportunity to improve and further de-risk our business going forward, and we expect to be a stronger company in '27 and continue the trend of improving our financial performance as well.

In addition, we expect to continue to deliver exceptional value for our customers and we believe they will continue to support us as a valued supplier. And I certainly want to thank our customers for their continued trust and support. I remain extremely positive about our opportunities and outlook over the next several years. With our improved cost structure, strong pipeline of upcoming projects, program launches, outstanding customer relationships, and a global team I would take over any other in the industry, I'm confident that we will deliver the long-term value our stakeholders expect and certainly deserve. This concludes our prepared remarks, so let's move into Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Mike Ward with Citigroup.

質疑応答

Michael Ward

I think to start, if I look at your charts on slides 11 and 13 when you're going through the adjusted EBITDA bridge, the general inflation and material economics, are they net of recoveries?

Jonathan Banas

No, Mike, that's a good question. Those are shown gross. Any kind of customer recoveries or price adjustments we can glean are included in volume and mix. Obviously, there's a commercial element to that, and we've historically combined any recoveries or price adjustments in that volume and mix category. What you see as far as the general inflation, material cost inflation, those are gross numbers.

Michael Ward

Okay, so then if I compare the 9 months to 12 months, so 11 and 13, and I subtract them out and kind of look at what it assumes for the fourth quarter, it looks like manufacturing is a pretty big delta when you go for the full year compared to the 9 months. It's about a $40 million swing, and then volume price, and that's where those recoveries are coming, that's a $26 million positive. And then there are offsets for additional inflation, it looks like. But when you look at those numbers and you compare them, it does look like, I guess, you get a volume mix on the manufacturing side. You get the benefit, and then you get recoveries. Am I looking at it right? So when I go from what you saw in 9 months and what you expect for the year, that's a big part of the upside you see in 4Q.

Jonathan Banas

Yes, you're absolutely right, Mike. The ongoing run rate, you get the full benefit, for the most part, in Q4 of a lot of those savings initiatives as the projects are implemented and you get a clean run at them. And keep in mind the performance of both the manufacturing and purchasing organizations. You know, Jeff described how Q3 launches are up 100% compared to the prior year. This was a heavy, heavy launch year. And so there's always challenges and changeover activities that go along with that that were impacting the first 9 months. Q4 tends to be a lighter launch period, and so we expect the performance to ramp up in Q4. You also get the full run rate of rebate impacts that the purchasing organization negotiates as you meet volume commitments on the supply side. So you'll see more of those pulling through in Q4 overall.

Michael Ward

Okay. And then it looks like -- so that's how you're getting to the upside from a margin standpoint in Q4.

Jonathan Banas

Yes, but we're still fighting back general inflation and commodity inflation. You see those two continue to be offsets and very challenging for us.

Michael Ward

Okay. Jeff, on your chart that you talked about, the net new business, and that's new awards less any programs that fell off, is that correct?

Jeffrey Edwards

Yes. Yes, that's correct, Mike. That's the definition now we've used for many years. So nothing's changed there.

Michael Ward

Nothing's changed. And then if I look at it, later in your charts you talk about a 3-year type roll-in process. So if I'm looking at, you had a big increase in '25 and '26, so if I take a base of $2.7 billion in 2024, you're kind of looking at it where it starts to hit in '27, '28, where some of these new businesses start to roll in. And that's where you're getting up north to the $3.5 billion range. Is that correct?

Jeffrey Edwards

Yes. That's correct, Mike. That's the roughly $1 billion of net new business that we've been talking about launching as '27, '28, '29, and '30 arrive. And that's why we continue to be very confident in that outlook and those strategic targets that we've provided. We know what that business is, we know what the margins are. The only thing we don't know, as always, is volume and mix, but otherwise, in terms of the price and the cost associated with selling those products, it's already established, so the forecasts are pretty solid.

Michael Ward

Okay, and they're all new commercial agreements you put in a few years ago. Were all part of those programs? And it's also... and the programs in higher margin that you focused on.

Jeffrey Edwards

That's correct. Everything that -- what we've been saying all along is that the hurdle rates that we established to get the business projected to go on this, call it, 15% journey by the time we got to 2030, those programs are here. They're being developed. They're being prepared to launch. And we've consistently been at or above those hurdle rates, which is why we were able to come out with a strategic plan last year, talking about really '25 through '30 and achieving 15% EBITDA as a company.

Michael Ward

And John, any reason why the working capital won't turn positive for the year?

Jonathan Banas

Mike, as you know, our fourth quarter is historically a very, very strong working capital release for us, and we don't expect anything different this time around. And as you know as well, we're proactively managing all aspects of that working capital bucket that we can control, right? So inventory reductions, accounts payable terms and negotiations, and to a lesser extent, tooling that Jeff talked about in his prepared remarks. However, there are some other things in that bucket this year that are unique. Think government tariff refunds. We can't control the timing when the government pays us, but those are significant. And we're also actively working on those commodity cost recoveries as well. So those could tie up working capital between now and the end of the year. We're continuing to drive it and drive the positive free cash flow in Q4 as best we can. And we'll see how things shake out given the continued inflationary impacts we're facing and the drag on earnings that that's presenting to us.

Michael Ward

Perfect. Thank you very much, everybody.

Jonathan Banas

Thanks, Mike.

Michael Ward

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Doug Carson with Bank of America.

Douglas Karson

I want to talk a little bit more about the bridge. There's kind of a lot riding on Q4 here to try to get to an EBITDA maybe in the neighborhood of $82 million to kind of meet guidance. The visibility in the lean manufacturing, that you're hoping to get $40 million out, we've already got kind of a month of the quarter underneath our belt. Is there more visibility in that than there is in, like, your tariff rebates? Trying to just bridge my $82 million -- like how I'm modeling to $82 million EBITDA -- I've got to kind of have a lot of confidence in that lean manufacturing coming through.

Jeffrey Edwards

Yes, Doug, this is Jeff. I think if there's anything that we tend to circle and say we have a high level of confidence both historically and today, that's in our manufacturing teams and their ability to perform and hit these numbers. So that one is pretty good to go. The big challenge we have, obviously, is what's the price of oil going to be next week and the following week and next month and so on and so forth, and the headwind that continues to provide us. We also have significant commercial conversations going on to try to recover as much of that owed to us this year as we can. So as always in this industry, commercial negotiations are probably those that are most difficult to forecast. So we've done our best to come up with what we think is an achievable commercial recovery plan, and that is what's reflected here. Are we going for more? Of course. But this, I think, is appropriately reflected, and the risk associated with getting everything we want is appropriately reflected.

Douglas Karson

Right, that's very helpful. If I could double click on the recovery from the higher commodity costs that your customers essentially owe you, if I'm thinking about it right, and I think, Mike, you dug into it a bit, if I look at slide 11, I see materials negative $25 million. And then when I go down to slide 13, I see the volume and mix kind of inflects positive $5 million from the negative $21 million. So there's like a $26 million change in your volume and mix against a production number that's actually down about 2% in North America for Q4. So am I safe to assume that that $26 million change is the hope that you'll get some rebates? Is that kind of like the refund number I'm circling in my head?

Jonathan Banas

Doug, I'm assuming you meant recovery, not refunds, right? Yes, there certainly is in the volume and mix category an element of those customer recoveries. But, you know, the real driver in volume and mix is traditionally production levels and the mix of what we're producing for our customers around the world. So you do have a fourth quarter year-over-year impact there when you've got to look around the world. What we're manufacturing in China, Europe, North America, all weighs heavily into that volume and mix number. So it's not just customer recoveries that we're talking about in that plus $5 million for the whole year.

Douglas Karson

Right, there is a production issue there. Okay, and then maybe if I could just be greedy and ask a question on cash flow, I was kind of feeling a little bit perky when we talked about a working capital release and having a strong Q4 free cash flow. But then I think as the conversation kind of extended it a bit, there were some kind of one-off puts and takes that I maybe wasn't following. Is free cash flow expected to be positive in 4Q?

Jonathan Banas

In the fourth quarter, yes. We expect it to be positive in the fourth quarter, as it traditionally is, Doug. Even with the interest coupon that we'll pay in mid-November here, we expect the significant unwinding of accounts receivable and reductions in inventory to benefit the free cash flow for the quarter.

Douglas Karson

Is working capital going to be like a source of liquidity in the $20 million, $30 million kind of neighborhood? Just able to share some of the blocking and tackling there, it would help us kind of model out for cash a little bit.

Jonathan Banas

Yes, if I had that locked in, I'd give you the full cash guidance for the year, which obviously we don't. So I'll leave it at the puts and takes that I described.

Douglas Karson

That's very fair. And the last question on the liquidity front, I think at the beginning of the call, you said you expanded your capacity by $20 million and also perhaps got better terms. What was driving that thought process?

Jonathan Banas

Well, first and foremost, we wanted to get the maturity extended out. So that was originally set to expire a few years earlier than 2031. So extending that maturity was first and foremost. But then along with that, obviously, our lending partners recognize the financial improvements that we've made over the years since the last time we amended that facility. And that's where the economic improvements ultimately came from. So when we said let's look at the whole package, getting the incremental liquidity in terms of $20 million extra, but then also improving the economics for it, it was a no-brainer. A double benefit for us, along with kicking the maturity down a couple more years out. So really, really good result or really a good outcome for our Treasury team to continue to work with our banking partners.

Douglas Karson

I think that's great. And last thing I'll leave on slide 6, I mean the year-to-date new business awards of $395 million, that just blows away any year on that screen, right? It's $100 million more than a full year of 2025. So at some point those are going to start coming through with higher revenue numbers. What's the kind of cadence of some of those new business wins? Will we see them like a third, a third, a third over a couple of years, or are they like a 5-year window kind of, as we think about how the revenue top line looks like? What's the duration of some of those wins, just so I could think about modeling out?

Jeffrey Edwards

I guess you'd take $2.8 billion, which is where we're heading this year, and you go out to 2030, 2031, and you put $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, and then you draw a line.

Douglas Karson

Got you. Perfect. Thanks a lot, guys, for answering all those questions. I appreciate it. I'll turn the queue over to somebody else. Thank you so much.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from the line of Leah Seiker with Beach Point Capital.

Unknown Speaker

I just wanted to ask on the restructuring aspect, costs, if you could give a little color on -- like a big number this quarter -- if you could give a little color on sort of what that relates to. And then, you know, we're at, I think, $41 million year-to-date compared to the guide, the full-year guide of $30 million to $35 million. So if you could help me bridge that.

Jonathan Banas

Yes, Leah, this is John. I'll start with the P&L for the quarter. The most significant and primary portion of that charge for the quarter was further downsizing of our Western European workforce. So as we continue to do, we continue to optimize the fixed costs and manufacturing footprint around the world. And we were able to successfully reach agreement with certain groups there to further downsize our Western European footprint because it's obviously the most costly and the one that's been a drag on profitability over the years. So for the most part, that Q3 charge was reaching that agreement and recording all that P&L charge. Now cash goes out the door over the next several months into next year or so. It wasn't all cash that left the company. You just book the accrual, and then it's pay as you go for the most part. Anytime we're looking at any of these initiatives, we're looking for cash paybacks, certainly quicker than 2 years overall. And we've announced earlier this year a couple of plant closures, one in Western Europe, another one here in North America, and some of the cash that's been used so far this year has been to start those initiatives, but then also the tail of other restructuring initiatives that we implemented last year. So the guide of cash restructuring of $30 million to $35 million, different than what's going to be on the P&L, obviously. So we think there's a few more million that goes out here in Q4 on a net basis that brings you into that cash number of $30 million to $35 million. So hopefully that paints the picture for you.

Unknown Speaker

Yes, super helpful. Thank you. And how do we think about the kind of cadence of that in the next few quarters?

Jonathan Banas

On the P&L, we don't expect much more ahead of us. You know, everything we've implemented or announced is what we've got on the plate for now. And obviously the business continues to evolve and we continually assess our fixed costs and our footprint. So there's no guarantee that things won't change in the future, but that's what's on the plate for now.

Unknown Speaker

Got it. And then just one more, like, I know you guys can't predict where oil is going, but what oil price was baked into your guide for the year for Q4?

Jonathan Banas

Well, I had in my prepared remarks that the current prices have been anywhere from $30 to $40 a barrel higher than our planning assumptions. So if you take the above 100 or 110 mark, that kind of backs you into our plan assumption was around $65 for the year.

Unknown Speaker

But that wasn't -- I mean, for the updated guidance, presumably you weren't still at around $60.

Jonathan Banas

Oh, no, no, no. The 100-ish is where the guide's at. $30 million to $40 million, it remained higher than that level.

Unknown Speaker

Okay, I understand. Got it. That's all for me. Thank you.

Jonathan Banas

All right, Leah. Thanks.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you.

Operator

It appears that there are no more questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Roger Hendrickson.

Roger Hendriksen

Okay, thanks, everybody. We appreciate all the questions and the engagement on the call this morning. If further questions come up that weren't answered today, please feel free to reach out, give me a call, and we'll see to it that we get your answers.

Operator

Thanks again for joining us. This will conclude our call. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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