BigBear.ai（BBAI）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：売上高31%増、業績予想を上方修正

主なポイント

• 2026年第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比31%増の4,360万ドルとなり、2025年12月にAskSageを通じて取得したBigBear生成AIプラットフォームが大きく貢献しました。
• 粗利益率は31.2%に達し、前年同期から878ベース・ポイント改善しました。
• BigBear.aiは、2026年通期の売上高見通しを1億5,000万ドル〜1億6,500万ドルに引き上げました。経営陣は、中間値で2025年比23%増の成長になると述べています。
• 受注残高は、新規案件の獲得や継続案件の競注（リコンピート）成功に支えられ、第2四半期末から22%増加して3億3,000万ドルとなりました。
• 同社は主に7,670万ドルの非現金によるのれん減損損失を背景に、9,190万ドルの純損失を計上しました。調整後EBITDAはマイナス910万ドルと赤字が続きました。
• BigBear.aiは、第3四半期末時点で約4億ドルの現金および投資資産を保有して終えました。経営陣は2026年12月償還予定の約1,700万ドルの転換社債が返済されると見込んでおり、同社は無借金の状態で2027年を開始できる見通しです。

主要財務データ

事業・業績動向

BigBear.aiは、第2四半期以降に総契約価値で2億2,500万ドル超に相当する25件以上の新規契約を獲得・発表したと説明しました。第2四半期と第3四半期を合わせると、45件以上の契約獲得を発表したことになります。

2件の主要な5年間の下請け契約により、米国税関・国境警備局（CBP）との業務が拡大しました。BigBear.aiはSAICおよびUnisonが主導するチームに参加し、AI、アナリティクス、ソフトウェア開発を活用してリスク評価、ターゲット設定、身元調査ワークフロー、国境警備オペレーションを支援します。

BigBear生成AIプラットフォームは、連邦捜査局（FBI）、米国沿岸警備隊、NASA（アメリカ航空宇宙局）、エネルギー省、退役軍人省などの企業・機関顧客を新たに獲得しました。同プラットフォームは、オフライン環境やエアギャップ（隔離）環境でのデプロイを含め、生成AIモデルやエージェント型ツールへのセキュアなアクセスを提供します。

同社は社会重要インフラ分野での取り組みも拡大しました。チルドレンズ・ミネソタは、患者フローの予測、運用計画、容量最適化を支援するBigBear.aiの「FutureFlow Rx」デジタルツインおよび予測アナリティクスソリューションについて、2年間の契約を更新しました。

経営陣は、BigBear.aiがAIバリューチェーンの第4層および第5層にあたる「エンタープライズAIプラットフォーム、ツール、アプリケーション、特定のミッション向けソリューション」に引き続き注力すると述べました。同社は、このモデルについて、データセンターの建設や汎用基盤モデルの開発と比較して資本集約度が低いモデルであると説明しています。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

BigBear.aiは、2026年通期の売上高見通しを1億5,000万ドル〜1億6,500万ドルに引き上げました。経営陣は、これが従来の見通し範囲の中間値から5%の引き上げとなり、中間値で前年比23%の成長を意味すると説明しました。

経営陣は、見通し引き上げの要因として、第3四半期業績の好調さ、契約モメンタムの改善、受注残高の拡大を挙げました。また、売上高の成長とM&A対象の追求が、2026年残りの期間における主要な優先事項であり続けると述べています。

2027年に向けて、経営陣は防衛の近代化、世界的な貿易フローの変化、セキュアな国際渡航への需要、治安機関への圧力の高まりを潜在的なビジネス追い風として挙げました。これらのコメントは方向性を示すものであり、同社は2027年の正式な財務予想を公表していません。

リスクと注視すべき点

調整後EBITDAは前年同期から改善したものの依然としてマイナスにとどまり、7,670万ドルののれん減損損失が報告業績に大きく影響しました。

第3四半期の売上成長はAskSageを通じて取得した生成AIプラットフォームに大きく支えられており、同プラットフォームの継続的な導入拡大と契約転換が同社の成長軌道において重要となります。

経営陣は、2026年のガイダンス、2027年の見通し、および市場予想は将来予測に関する記述であり、実際の結果とは大きく異なる可能性があると注意を促しました。同社は、これらの予測に影響を与える可能性のある要因について、SEC（米国証券取引委員会）への提出書類を参照するよう投資家に求めています。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Sean Ricker

Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us today for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm Sean Ricker, CFO of BigBear.ai, and I'm joined today by our CEO, Kevin McAleenan.

Statements made in today's call that are not historical fact are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the federal security laws. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. These statements, including a discussion of our guidance expectations for 2027 and market estimates speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them.

Please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We also have posted presentation slides and financial charts on our website today that we plan to address during the call to supplement our comments. These materials also include information regarding non-GAAP measures that may be used in today's call. Please access our website at www.bigbear.ai and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts.

Now I'll hand it over to Kevin.

Kevin McAleenan

Thank you, Sean. BigBear had another strong quarter. I'll start with 4 important financial updates for our shareholders. First, revenue grew 31% year-over-year, our third consecutive quarter of growth. Because of this performance, we are raising our full year 2026 revenue guidance range to $150 million to $165 million. This is the first time BigBear has raised our revenue guidance and achieving the midpoint would represent 23% growth over last year.

Second, we have won and announced more than 25 new contracts since the second quarter. Together, these represent more than $225 million in contract value. Wins include significant recompetes for the Department of Homeland Security and several important new mission customers as well as classified awards in our national security business. Third, we have sustained our gross margin improvement trend. Gross margins rose by 878 basis points compared with the same period last year. Fourth, we maintained our strong cash position. We entered the fourth quarter with almost $400 million in cash and investments in reserve.

Taken together, we are following through on what we set out to achieve this year. We are growing top line revenue and expanding our customer base faster than BigBear has achieved before, while diversifying our revenue mix and defending our existing business, all of which strengthens our position for growth in the years ahead.

My top 2 priorities for the remainder of the year continue to be delivering top line revenue growth and pursuing our hunt for M&A targets with clear potential for either rapid deployment of cutting-edge capabilities or increasing our market penetration and scale. We're executing against those priorities, intend to finish the fiscal year strong and [ are ] in a solid position to grow in 2027.

Given the dynamic environment in security and defense technology, I'd like to turn now to why we are winning with customers where we play in the AI landscape and the contract wins that show our strategy is working. Stated simply, we are winning because we combine operational experience, unique technical capabilities and deep customer trust. I'll unpack that to emphasize where we are focused and why I believe we are differentiated. BigBear is a specialized security and defense technology company. Our objective is to be the [ mission ] AI partner of choice for the United States government, its allies and critical industries in the U.S. and internationally. We focus on developing and deploying cutting-edge AI capabilities for operators who take on the toughest problems in national security and trade and travel.

We specialize in technology, platforms, tools and solutions for missions that are very difficult for new entrants to understand and penetrate. We leverage deep customer trust to accelerate the application of AI in secure, complex and high consequence operating environments. And because we are a first mover, we can address and capitalize on demand for secure AI now while innovating at the pace our mission partners need.

I believe we can do all of this as well as any company in the world. We're agile and well capitalized enough to move quickly and innovate on near-term opportunities and changing customer needs, and we're big enough to scale solutions and technology for complex, hard to navigate mission sets with higher security expectations. For those who are looking to situate BigBear in the wider technology landscape, you can think of the AI value chain as having 5 basic layers, each with different economics, capital requirements and risk profiles.

One, with physical foundation, chips, networking, memory and the power and cooling equipment that runs them; two, compute infrastructure, data centers and cloud providers that deliver computing capacity; three, foundation models, large-scale general-purpose AI models, including language and multimodal models that support a wide range of applications; fourth, tools and enterprise AI platforms, the technology that securely connects models to customer data, workflows and operational systems; and five, AI applications and solutions, products and mission-specific capabilities that put AI to work for real users.

BigBear operates primarily across the last layers, 4 and 5, and that is where we aim to continue to win greater market share. We are an applied AI business combining proprietary platforms, applications and specialized AI and machine learning models with the expertise required to deploy them in mission-critical environments. We connect AI to our customers' data and workflows and we build and deploy mission-specific platforms and solutions that make AI work in practice. Importantly, we don't simply integrate AI developed by others. We also develop our own specialized capabilities, drawing on domain expertise and specific customer requirements and data to solve complex operational problems.

This is where we intend to differentiate. In other words, BigBear turns advanced AI capabilities, including Frontier or open weight models, multi-agent systems and specialized machine learning algorithms into production-ready deployments, providing immediate operational value and changing how critical missions get done.

And I would like to underscore that our position in this value chain is deliberate and built on our track record of rapid innovation with advanced tools directly supporting operators. We do not need to finance data center build-outs or the development of general purpose foundation models to participate in the growth of AI. While markets focused on these macro trends and investors increasingly scrutinize the capital intensity, leverage and financing risks associated with the infrastructure build, it is important to distinguish those exposures from the more focused economics of our business, and the opportunities presented by how government and critical infrastructure customers are now working to adopt AI tools.

We benefit from innovation across the AI ecosystem but pursue that opportunity through a much more targeted and less capital-intensive model. In fact, our strategy is designed so that our business benefits as the technology advances. Our model agnostic platform capabilities give us the flexibility to incorporate advances in third-party AI models as they emerge alongside the specialized capabilities we develop ourselves without depending on any single model provider.

Deep mission expertise, a security cleared workforce and the ability to deploy and secure real-world environments, our differentiators. Government customers want capability that works in the field. So do commercial leaders in critical industries. The demand is here now and customers are starting to move more quickly because their missions require it, as do policymakers and shareholders alike.

In reality, most agencies and companies are in the early stages of applying AI to operational use cases and workflows and the adoption curve is steep. That's exactly where we play. We serve the full spectrum of national security and travel and trade mission customers. That includes the executives who set mission priorities and the CIOs and CTOs who own and execute technology road maps. It includes the program leaders who turn operational needs into funded programs and we never lose sight of the operators who depend on these tools every day from [ intelligent ] fusion centers to combatant commands and operations at the edge to shipyards and ports of entry. We understand what each of them needs.

Each win we secure is further proof that our customers want to deploy specialized AI in secure environments for these complex use cases. The best evidence for customer trust is a result that we are delivering in contract wins. Demand for AI built by operators, for operators is getting stronger by the quarter. Combining Q2 and Q3, we have announced more than 45 new contract wins in multiple markets, demonstrating that we are gaining significant traction across the board. Included in our Q3 wins, we secured 2 substantial subcontracts centered on Homeland and Border Security, one on SAIC's team and the other partnering with Unison. Both extend our long-standing work supporting U.S. Customs and Border Protection targeting the system for the [ directorate ].

Together, they represent a meaningful contribution to our revenue base and enhance our backlog. More broadly, these contracts provide our developers and program professionals the opportunity to support essential CBP risk assessment and targeting operations for counterterrorism, counter-narcotics, human smuggling trade enforcement, agriculture protection and other security missions. Under SAIC's newly awarded 5-year recompete task order, BigBear will provide integrated AI and analytics to optimize critical systems essential for securing the U.S. border. BigBear helps CBP assess the security risk from travelers and cargo entering our country. So our work under Unison's newly awarded 5-year contract, BigBear will continue software development work on CBP vetting workflow operations and analysis extending our team's history of supporting CBP's ability to detect and interdict threats at our borders.

In addition to these key long-term wins with existing customers, BigBear successfully expanded our customer and contract base in Q3. Our generative AI platform, which we have adapted and enhanced since acquiring [ AskSage ] in December, has played a big part in growing our customer base. New enterprise customers in Q3 include critical national security departments and agencies including the Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Coast Guard, NASA, the Department of Energy and the Department of Veterans Affairs. While the mission needs and use cases may differ, BigBear's generative platform provides secure access to the latest generative AI models and agentic tools with the choice of available models from leading AI and cloud providers, the ability for these agencies to possess secured data with these tools and build agents for advanced workflows.

These contracts demonstrate that demand continues to grow across defense, intelligence and civilian agencies, including in disconnected and air gap environments. The team and I are extremely proud to be serving these agencies, each of which plays a critical role in our national and economic security.

In addition, the work we do to support critical national infrastructure often with our digital twin modeling and simulation tools is also growing well. In addition to the contracts with shipyards and manufacturing facilities, airports and supply chain players that we've announced this year, we have added customers in health care. Our health care system is part of our nation's critical infrastructure and requires a level of operational rigor and data security similar to our security customers.

Just as we deploy specialized AI for National's care use cases, [ FutureFlow Rx ] addresses complex health care operational changes where lives are at stake. We recently secured a 2-year renewal with Children's in Minnesota, one of the largest pediatric health systems in the United States. Continuing their investment in our digital twin and predictive analytics solution for health care. The agreement focuses on AI applications to help hospital leaders anticipate patient flow, evaluate operational challenges and optimize capacity and resources.

Our continued partnership validates our ability to deliver mission-ready AI solutions across sectors, extending our impact in the critical civilian infrastructure that communities depend on every day.

Combined, these wins show that our strategy is working. We have organized our business to pursue growth with focus and discipline with technology teams aligned to the specific mission customers that we serve. Since May this year, our structure [indiscernible] go-to-market motions are simpler and more targeted, and we are executing with increasing consistency.

I'll now turn it over to Sean to walk us through the details of our financials.

Sean Ricker

Thanks, Kevin. Our results were strong operationally and financially this quarter. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was $43.6 million, an increase of 31% year-over-year due to improved revenue performance across the business and substantially driven by our BigBear generative AI platform, which was acquired at AskSage in December 2025. Our improved gross margins continued this quarter, growing to 31.2% and increase of 878 basis points as compared to [indiscernible] we recorded a noncash goodwill impairment charge of $76.7 million or $0.16 per share in the third quarter of 2026, which was the primary driver of our net loss of $91.9 million or $0.19 per share this quarter as compared to net income of $2.5 million in the comparable period.

Adjusted EBITDA improved to negative $9.1 million this quarter versus negative $9.4 million in the comparable period. Our balance sheet continues to remain strong. We finished the third quarter with almost $400 million of cash and investments. With about $17 million of convertible debt outstanding that will mature in December of this year, we expect to be a great date to kick off 2027 debt free and with maximum flexibility to be opportunistic in the execution of our strategy.

Turning to backlog. We ended the third quarter with $330 million in backlog, an increase of 22% from the end of last quarter driven by the new wins and successful recompetes that Kevin previously mentioned. The performance we saw this quarter exceeded our expectations, giving us confidence in a stronger revenue trajectory as we look ahead to the end of this year. Building on the momentum we've seen this quarter, we now expect full year revenue between $150 million to $165 million, representing a 5% increase at the midpoint versus the guidance range we provided earlier this year. At the midpoint, this would represent 23% revenue growth relative to our 2025 results.

This higher revenue guidance reinforces 2 important growth dynamics: First, we're growing top line revenue. This is our third sequential quarter of organic revenue growth this year. Second, our revenue growth has accelerated this year. Quarter-over-quarter revenue growth was 6.7% in the second quarter and has accelerated to 18.6% in the third quarter. As we look ahead at the business in totality, we are feeling positive about our momentum as we close out this year and look ahead to 2027.

Now I'll turn it back to Kevin for some closing remarks.

Kevin McAleenan

Thank you, Sean, and thank you to the whole Big Bear team for your hard work. We approach the end of the year with real confidence, thanks to our underlying financial strength and win momentum. I'd like to close by looking out to 2027 and talk about 4 trend lines in the macro environment that are generating tailwinds for our business.

The catalyst fueling these trends are continued technological breakthroughs, increased geopolitical instability and accelerating great power competition, and I believe the impact is likely to grow next year. First, defense modernization. How wars are fought is changing, shift of this magnitude happens rarely, and we are only at the start of the change. The world is wrestling with dozens of active conflicts. In 2025 alone, global military spending reached a record $2.9 trillion. While U.S. defense spending grows, the proportion being directed to disruptive technologies and new entrants is increasing as well. In the 2027 U.S. defense budget, the combined AI and autonomy request is $112 billion. And over the next decade, G7 governments are expected to make $8 trillion of additional investment on top of the prior trends.

Second, redesigned global trade flows. The global economy is undergoing equally significant change. Regional conflicts and increased great power competition means that global trade requires faster cargo processing at the same time as more precise risk assessment to keep goods moving securely and at pace. Global Trading goods reached $26 trillion in 2025, growing 7% year-over-year. Third, demand for secure international travel. Global passenger travel is also on the rise. In 2025, international air traffic grew by 7.1%. IATA's forecast show increased growth in international air traffic in 2026 as well. U.S. Customs and Border Protection processes about 1 million individuals entering the country daily at Air land and Seaport [ of entry ], substantial share of these trial has moved through airports, and our biometric solutions are deployed across more than 2 dozen major U.S. airports. The global aviation security market is estimated to be more than $17 billion in 2026 and is predicted to reach $27 billion by 2031.

Finally, pressure on the security apparatus. The message from security professionals in Washington and other global capital is that agencies responsible for protecting people are deeply concerned about the diversity and pace of the threats facing us. This includes asymmetric technology-driven threats. There is mounting evidence that state and non-state actors are increasingly using generative AI tools, able to plan and execute attacks with far fewer resources, far less time and fewer guardrails. For example, the challenges associated with detecting and intercepting drones involved in cross-border smuggling operations were potentially threatening event venues and critical infrastructure, increasing cybersecurity vulnerabilities across the economy and a digital information ecosystem flooded with this information are high on the agendas of policymakers and appropriators.

BigBear customers understand that many of our people came from the security community helped to build the technology it depends on and understand the nature of the changing threat landscape. Indeed, our executives, technology and combined experience are respected internationally by government and commercial customers in each of these areas.

While the underlying trends present significant concern, they also present a galvanizing opportunity for the private sector to help governments and critical infrastructure operators to outpace the threats. This is what BigBear was built for. Our full focus is on delivering enduring strategic advantage for the United States, its allies and critical industries. Our strategy to build, deploy and acquire analytic technology for operators in national security and trading travel is the right strategy at the right time.

The financial opportunity for our business is clear. Our leadership organization and resources are fully focused on capturing and delivering value, and it is an exciting time to be deploying AI in our markets.

My continued thanks to our team for your efforts and to our shareholders for supporting us. I look forward to talking with you again at our next earnings call where we will cover the full year performance for 2026 and chart our path to sustained growth in 2027 and beyond.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect your lines this time.