Jensen Huang Was at the Trump-Xi Summit and Nvidia Has Committed $40B to AI - Is NVDA a Buy at $225 Before May 20?

China has been one of the big geopolitical storylines in the chip world for several years now. The US has tightened the number of chips that Nvidia can sell to customers in China over time, and the Trump administration's talks with Beijing are of intense interest to every tech company with China revenue.

Huang's presence in Beijing is a big deal. It means two things: first, that Nvidia's China business is big enough to warrant having its CEO on the ground at the highest levels of diplomatic engagement between the US and China; and second, that the Trump administration sees Nvidia as a strategic asset in AI infrastructure development as opposed to a more neutral business.

From an earnings and guidance perspective, the China implications could be important. Any easing of export controls for AI chips, however gradual, could add significant upside to consensus revenue estimates, which are currently forecasting the Chinese market as restricted in a meaningful way. Any tightening would likely have negative consequences for the parts of the business supplying hyperscalers and large cloud infrastructure companies in China. Management's comments about China's Q1 contribution to revenue and its outlook for China in the forward quarter will no doubt be a major area of focus on the May 20 conference call.

Nvidia has committed to over $40 billion in strategic investments in AI this year. That includes major capital deployments in OpenAI and other specialized infrastructure-related companies. This is different from traditional capex. It represents ecosystem investment, the kind of spending that helps ensure that the entities building the most important AI applications are the same ones most tightly integrated into Nvidia's GPU stack, CUDA software layer, and full-stack infrastructure.

By investing in OpenAI, for instance, it isn't just a question of generating a financial return. It is a strategic assurance that the leading AI lab in the world will continue to scale Nvidia hardware in any meaningful way.

The IREN arrangement serves a different strategic purpose, one that speaks more clearly to Nvidia's long-term vision for the industry. IREN is working on gigawatt-scale AI data center build-outs, the kind of purpose-built, power-hungry data center infrastructure that is a perfect match for the capabilities Blackwell and the Nvidia compute platforms of the future are designed to deliver.

A gigawatt of AI computing power, given current power densities for Nvidia GPUs, translates to tens of billions in potential GPU sales as the build-out proceeds. The deal puts Nvidia on the ground as an infrastructure partner right at the point of initial data center planning and development for massive AI compute facilities. Management has been asked in the past to shed light on the scope and pace of the large infrastructure partnerships that it has forged. Expect those questions to surface on the May 20 call.

The 4H chart is showing a pullback from the upper trendline at roughly $237.91 down to the 0.236 Fibonacci at $226.52 and into the middle of the channel. The moving average red band dynamic support zone is between $216 and $220.

The RSI has backed off from overbought to the 53–68 area with bullish divergence as prices dipped. The bull flag-style consolidation pattern off of the $195 consolidation base is in place with an established pattern of higher lows and higher highs. The next levels are at $226.52, $231.50, and $236.21.

NVDA Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

A strong set of earnings numbers and a raised guidance range could push prices into the measured move target of $250 to $270. If management chooses to err on the side of caution in its commentary on the forward quarter, the next levels to challenge would be in the $215 to $220 region.

Trade Setup

● Entry: Long above $227, confirmation that the 0.236 Fibonacci holds

● Target 1: $231.50, mid-channel resistance

● Target 2: $236.21, upper trendline

● Post-earnings, bullish target: $250 to $270 if it beats and raises estimates

● Stop loss: Daily close below $220.40

The Street is calling for $78 billion to $79 billion in Nvidia Q1 FY2027 revenue, a 77% to 79% year-over-year increase, with $65 billion to $68 billion from Data Center. The Street also expects Non-GAAP gross margin above 74% and adjusted EPS of about $1.75 to $1.78. Analyst price targets are between $300 and $320, Bank of America being the most bullish. The two market-moving items will be Q2 guidance and the commentary on supply of and demand for Blackwell and any update on China revenue.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was at President Trump’s Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which is the signal that, despite Nvidia’s US-China tech ties, US export controls limiting Nvidia’s China chip sales continue to evolve, and the Trump-Xi results might loosen or tighten controls. And any changes in Nvidia GPUs and China would directly and materially impact forward guidance, so Nvidia’s China commentary at the May 20 call will be especially important.

Nvidia is putting more than $40 billion into AI-related strategic investments in 2026, including a big chunk for OpenAI and specialized AI infrastructure partners. These investments are designed to solidify the lock-in, ensuring the most critical AI developers stay loyal to Nvidia’s GPU stack and CUDA software layer. IREN is building gigawatt-scale AI data center capacity. Nvidia is partnering with IREN as a design partner during the infrastructure planning phase, not as a chip supplier, and is likely to get GPU commitments for the IREN builds that will run for many years.

Of course, the May 20 print will be where all the attention will be focused, but the story of the past two weeks was the big things happening outside the quarterly numbers, Jensen at the Trump-Xi summit, $40 billion in ecosystem investments, and the gigawatt-scale infrastructure play with IREN. It’s all about more than a product or chip. They are structural, longer-term commitments that take Nvidia’s AI dominance from the Blackwell cycle into the Rubin era.

At $225, NVDA is holding Fib 0.236 support with RSI positive divergence, two days away from the most critical earnings print of the year. The trade above $227 targets $231.50 and $236.21, with a post-earnings bull target, beat and raise, of $250 to $270.