SpaceX IPO Collides With Starship V3 First Flight Musk Must Succeed This Time. 1.75 Trillion Valuation IPO Success or Failure Hinges on This?

TradingKey - Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to officially go public as early as June 12, marking what would be the largest IPO in global market history. Reuters reported that the company plans to release its prospectus as early as Wednesday.

Ahead of this, the third-generation Starship (Starship V3)—the largest and most powerful launch vehicle to date—is scheduled for its maiden test flight this Tuesday, May 19 (ET). This trial could prove critical for the subsequent IPO.

Starship encountered a series of setbacks during test flights last year, including uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry and mid-flight explosions, which severely hampered development progress. Prior to this Tuesday's scheduled flight, the most recent test in the Starship series dates back seven months.

However, SpaceX has expressed full confidence in the upcoming test, stating that relevant technical issues have been resolved. Elon Musk previously stated on the X platform that Starship V3 will achieve full reusability.

The Starship V3 for this test flight features three major upgrades. Thanks to a 10% increase in liftoff thrust compared to the previous generation, its Low Earth Orbit (LEO) payload capacity has risen from 35 tons to over 100 tons. This increased capacity significantly reduces the number of launches required for transport missions and is expected to further drive down the launch cost per pound of payload. SpaceX has also made several modifications to the Super Heavy booster for high-frequency reuse, aiming for true zero-loss reusability. Additionally, Starship V3 is equipped with an inter-ship propellant transfer system for the first time, designed to facilitate in-space propellant replenishment for the upper stage—a critical capability for the Artemis lunar missions.

Analysts point out that the outcome of this test will directly impact market sentiment regarding the SpaceX IPO. As a frontier technology product, a Starship test failure would not be unexpected and could still provide valuable data for R&D. However, given the narrow window between this test and the planned filing and listing—and Musk's ambitious pledge of "full reusability"—any technical setbacks could trigger skepticism in capital markets over the commercialization timeline.

Furthermore, given the massive R&D costs associated with the Starship series, a successful test would demonstrate that SpaceX is yielding returns. This would likely accelerate commercialization and reduce future launch costs, largely alleviating investor concerns over substantial future capital expenditures. Since Starship is slated to handle mass launches of Starlink satellites and the construction of space data centers, success in this trial would provide more solid fundamental support for SpaceX’s massive 1.75 trillion IPO valuation, potentially even fueling further valuation growth after the listing.