Gilead's Stock Price is Expected to Rise to $160，Gilead’s $5 Billion Tubulis Deal Could Reshape the Cancer Drug Market of America

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is a pharmaceutical company specializing in antiviral medications, primarily for the treatment of HIV. The company also manufactures and sells products to treat liver diseases, cancer and multiple other conditions. According to Gilead’s 2025 Form 10-K, the company has approximately 25 products on the market, operates in over 35 countries globally and is focused on treating life-threatening diseases such as HIV, viral hepatitis, COVID-19, and various cancers. The mix of these medicines is important because Gilead isn’t simply looking to turn itself into an oncology company; rather, it is using the success of their current HIV business as a means of developing a larger portfolio of products over time.

Gilead's announcement to purchase Tubulis GmbH for an estimated $5 billion is more than just a means to add products to its pipeline. Business Wire and Reuters reported that this acquisition is composed of $3.15 billion in cash up front and an additional potential $1.85 billion of milestone payments based on Tubulis successfully meeting certain criteria. Tubulis will become an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) research group within Gilead after the second quarter of 2026, following the transaction's closing. The transaction includes TUB-040, a NaPi2b-targeting ADC that is currently under investigation for use as treatment for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer and non-small cell lung cancer, as well as TUB-030, which is under investigation for use as treatment for a variety of solid tumors. Gilead is not acquiring revenue from Tubulis; instead, it will acquire time, capability, and optionality within what is perhaps the most competitive therapeutic category of all oncology.

For this reason, The Tubulis Acquisition could be more significant than the price might initially indicate. The purpose of ADC therapy is to deliver chemotherapy to cancer cells more accurately and reduce the harm caused to other cells. While Gilead has already developed oncology products, it increases their technical capability to create ADCs, and also provides an existing platform for future ADC development. Reuters' coverage of the acquisition emphasises that it is part of a broader acquisition strategy and will allow Gilead to look past HIV and COVID revenues and to establish a long-term source of revenue from oncology. This does not guarantee success for Gilead, but rather shows that they are solving an actual strategic issue as opposed to just buying growth.

The financial conditions surrounding this acquisition create the foundation for taking this deal seriously. Gilead reported total revenues of $29.4 billion ($29.4 billion in 2025), an increase of 2% ($28.9 billion in 2024), with product revenues of $28.9 billion. HIV-related product revenues increased by 6% ($20.8 billion), liver disease revenues grew by 6% ($3.2 billion), and Trodelvy revenue increased by 6% to $1.4 billion. Additionally, the gross margin on products remained very strong at 78.4% and the diluted share price jumped from $0.38 per share in 2024 to $6.78 per share, as diluted earnings per share (EPS) were provided with increased revenues and lower IPR&D expenses for acquired products. As a result, Gilead is still a very successful company, able to continue investing in other growth areas such as oncology.

According to Gilead’s outlook for 2026, it will be slightly softer than had been hoped by the markets, but it is still solid overall. According to Reuters, Gilead expects to generate adjusted diluted EPS of $8.45 - $8.85, and product revenues of $29.6 billion - $30.0 billion, which are both below analyst expectations on Wall Street, but fairly close. Daniel O'Day, Gilead's CEO, stated that the company had to lower its sales growth guidance between two and three percentage points due to pressure from pricing and uncertainty regarding insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act due to some expired subsidies. This guidance does not suggest that Gilead's progression as a business has ceased; it suggests that Gilead has a core franchise that is still considered stable but is undergoing some normal pricing and policy pressures.

By December 19, 2025, Gilead's stock has had a great performance thus far this year. A market report at that time showed the stock has increased 35.5% from the start of the year and was trading just below its 52-week high. The strong run in 2025 on Gilead, reflects increasing confidence in HIV growth, improved earnings quality and greater optimism about the company's long-term pipeline.

Gilead's stock has not had an easy time in 2026. According to a Reuters article, the stock has declined after its February earnings guidance was below analyst expectations for future revenue. However, according to key metrics from a Reuters article, Gilead is still up 13.47% on a year-to-date price return as of early April 2026, suggesting that the stock is not broken down, just more responsive to earnings guidance, government policy changes, and expectation of M&A activity. Currently at $138.80 per share and approximately 17 times trailing earnings, Gilead's stock is not trading at a premium compared to other rapidly growing biotechs, but it is not entirely out of line for a large cap pharmaceutical company with strong cash generation.

There is a bull case that could develop. Gilead said its HIV sales increased by 6% in 2025 and should increase by another 6% in 2026 and, as such, will continue to serve as Gilead's largest and most consistent source of profits for the company. The company's 2025 annual report also states that Gilead has launched Yeztugo, the first and only twice-a-year HIV PrEP option currently available in the U.S. This will likely provide an additional growth opportunity for the franchise. In addition, Gilead's oncology pipeline is becoming increasingly important to Gilead, with the company reporting a 6% increase in Trodelvy sales in 2025 and the acquisition of Tubulis, which provides Gilead with a second platform for ADCs in its oncology portfolio. If the market begins to believe that Gilead can continue to support its HIV cash engine while gradually enhancing its oncology portfolio, then Gilead should have upside in its share price. Although this conclusion is not guaranteed, it is consistent with Gilead's sales mix and pipeline strategy.

There is a high risk that the path to market for oncology products will take longer than expected. Tubulis is still considered to be in the clinical stage, while the primary program (TUB-040 / TUB-030) remains relatively early in its development, so there can be no guarantee that either TUB-040 or TUB-030 will develop into commercially viable products. Gilead is also at risk from patent expiration, generic competition, currency fluctuations and continuing pricing pressure on its key brands - as noted in Gilead's recent Annual Report filed with the SEC for 2025 - specifically, year ending December 31, 2025 (and attached). On the business side, year-over-year sales related to cell therapies declined throughout 2025; also, COVID-induced hospital admissions have fallen sharply, resulting in a significant decline of revenue from Veklury, indicating that all parts of the Gilead brand portfolio are not growing at similar rates. While the Tubulis transaction strengthens and completes Gilead's oncology story, the fundamental development risk associated with conducting business in a developing drug pipeline cannot be changed by this transaction.

Gilead Sciences is an attractive long-term investment at today's stock price. For individual investors, the fundamentals of Gilead's core franchise are sound (it has a profitable and stable franchise) as well as the valuation of the company, which appears reasonable. In addition, Gilead's growth potential is more positive than it was several years ago (i.e., HIV growth), and although Gilead is still relatively small in terms of oncology, the company is investing more heavily in this area compared to before.

Gilead's recent acquisition of Tubulis does not independently change the thesis for investing in Gilead, but it does add to the argument that Gilead is trying to create a second growth engine while maintaining the current engine (which remains in good condition); thus, if execution remains consistent through 2026, then the stock is a candidate for re-rating.

While there is still some risk associated with this stock, and investors should not consider this stock a pure "momentum" play, at the current price levels Gilead appears to be a solid investment for long-term investors looking for large-cap drug companies with reasonable stability and good upside through current product pipelines.