Visa 3Q25 Earnings Preview
Visa will release its earnings for the third quarter of the fiscal 2025 on July 29th after the market closes.
- 3Q25 Earnings per share: $2.85 estimate vs. 3Q24 actual of $2.42 (+18% y/y)
- 3Q25 Revenue: $9.85bn estimate vs. 3Q24 actual of $8.90bn (+11% y/y)
So, what should investors expect this week?
Retail consumption: We expect Visa to provide us with a better picture of the current state of the consumption both in the US and globally. This will be different from Amex which is more US-centered and more tilted towards wealthier consumers. As Visa users are on average not as affluent as Amex ones, we do expect the economic slowdown to affect Visa’s revenue to a greater extent. Cross border and FX business will also give light to the state of mass travel industry.
Diversification efforts: In order to smoothen the effect of macro fluctuations, Visa is trying to diversify towards expanding into B2B. This is a lucrative opportunity for Visa, as the company can provide not only payment facilitation but also add-value services such as fraud prevention, receivables management and analytics. Currently, B2B represents around 10% of the total company revenue and the value-added services are around 24%.
Stablecoin – friend or foe: Stablecoins already process larger volume than both Visa and Mastercard combined, and the convenient movement of stablecoins is believed to possess a threat to the whole payment network system, namely Visa and Mastercard. In order Visa to stay relevant, they are adopting stablecoins into their operations, trying to turn the threat into opportunity. The earnings will provide more updates on how the company is positioned as bridge in the flow of stablecoins, including the volume of USDC transactions (in 2024 they were $225 million).
Final words:
Regardless of the negative market sentiment recently, Visa’s business model is still mainly tied to retail purchases, and business transactions to the lesser extent – industries which will take a while to get disrupted, since as of now, stablecoins are primarily used in cross-border transactions, remittances and crypto trading.
