U.S.-Iran Deadline Nears as S&P, Nasdaq Hit Records Despite Rebuttal of Trump Claims
Trump claimed Iran agreed to significant terms regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran denied these assertions, stating transit fees would continue and the strait was not fully reopened. Despite conflicting signals, U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached record highs for a third consecutive session, driven by market optimism that the conflict's perceived stabilization is supporting asset prices. Analysts suggest Trump's claims may be negotiation tactics. Core issues like Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz remain key obstacles to resolution, though market sentiment appears detached from these developments.
TradingKey - On April 17, Trump declared on social media that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has concluded, claiming that Iran has agreed to most conditions, including the full reopening of the strait, a commitment to abandon high-enriched uranium stockpiles, and the cessation of support for regional proxy militias.
However, Trump was immediately refuted by Iran. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, stated that the seven claims Trump posted on social media regarding Iran were untrue. Mahmoud Nabavian, a conservative Iranian lawmaker and member of the negotiating team, noted that Iran would continue to levy transit fees on passing merchant ships and that the strait has not been fully reopened.
Despite the conflicting signals from both sides and the murky outlook for peace talks, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 climbed for the 13th consecutive day, closing at record highs for the third straight session.
Trump’s Push for an Exit
A senior Gulf official noted that Trump's move signals his urgency to end hostilities with Iran, yet Tehran continues to refuse him a face-saving exit on key issues.
In fact, Trump's conciliatory posture has become quite clear. Following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Trump went as far as stating on social media on the 17th that the U.S. had prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon, warning them to stop. Trump also proposed hosting Israeli and Lebanese leaders at the White House to discuss a political solution.
Furthermore, Trump characterized Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah as a "separate conflict," excluding them from the broader negotiations with Iran. Analysts suggest this decouples core issues between the U.S. and Iran from regional Middle East conflicts, thereby reducing factors that might impede Iranian concessions.
However, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Trump's repeated "false claims" that Iran has accepted terms or compromised are merely a negotiation tactic, intended to exert public pressure to accelerate talks and signal a "take it or leave it" stance to Iran.
In reality, significant divisions persist between the U.S. and Iran over core issues. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated in a recent announcement that enriched uranium is as sacred to Iran as its sovereign territory and will not be transferred under any circumstances.
Abas Aslani, a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, pointed out that Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary obstacles in the negotiations.
Markets Shrug Off the Friction
Despite conflicting signals from the U.S. and Iran, market optimism remained bolstered. On Friday, WTI crude oil futures settled 11.45% lower, while the U.S. dollar briefly touched its lowest level in nearly seven weeks. U.S. equities continued their ascent, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq marking their 13th consecutive day of gains and closing at record highs for the third straight session, while the Dow surged 1.8%.
On the news front, the move was primarily driven by reports during the U.S. session that Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for transit. However, given the fact that U.S. stocks have already risen for 13 consecutive days, this rally may be underpinned by the market's steadfast optimism.
Previously, Goldman Sachs (GS) Rich Privorotky, head of the Delta One trading desk, noted that while the conflict itself has not officially ended, the equity market clearly perceives the situation as having stabilized.
Goldman Sachs strategist Chris Hussey remarked that as forward-looking instruments, stocks cannot afford to wait for the war's conclusion—investors believe it will eventually be resolved. This psychology explains market behavior and the resumption of the U.S. stock rally.
Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, even suggested that "the stock market and the broader financial markets seem to be shrugging off the situation in the Strait of Hormuz," noting that market logic may have shifted.
This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.
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