Why Did Moody’s Downgrade the U.S.? Will It Affect the Crypto Market? How Should Investors Respond?

Following earlier downgrades by S&P and Fitch, Moody’s has now lowered the U.S. credit rating for four major reasons:  

 1. Expanding Fiscal Deficit  

- The U.S. federal deficit reached $1.8 trillion in FY 2024, and surpassed $1.3 trillion in the first half of FY 2025, exceeding market expectations.  

- Government spending continues to outpace revenue, worsening the fiscal outlook and raising concerns among investors.  

 2. Record High National Debt  

- The U.S. national debt surpassed $36 trillion, significantly increasing the government’s financial burden.  

- With interest rates remaining high, U.S. debt servicing costs have risen sharply, further straining the federal budget.  

 3. Political and Policy Uncertainty  

- The U.S. government has faced multiple debt ceiling crises, eroding global confidence in its financial stability.  

- Heightened political disputes have made it difficult to implement stable economic policies.  

 4. Eroding Confidence in the U.S. Dollar  

- Frequent tariff policy shifts by the U.S. have accelerated the trend of "de-dollarization" globally.  

- Many central banks are increasing gold holdings and reducing U.S. dollar reserves in response.  

According to Moody’s, U.S. debt will continue to rise, while economic growth slows. The agency forecasts that by 2035, federal debt will reach 134% of GDP, with an annual deficit of 9%, suggesting weakening economic fundamentals.  

As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. downgrade by Moody’s affected not only traditional financial markets but also crypto markets, leading to broad declines in major digital assets.  

- Following the downgrade, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened.  

- Stock markets dropped, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling over 1.5%.  

- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.48%, reflecting concerns over rising borrowing costs.  

- Gold surged nearly 2%, surpassing $3,250 per ounce, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets.  

Crypto assets also experienced notable declines:  

- Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell approximately 3%.  

- Bitcoin (BTC) dipped slightly by 0.3%.  

Moody’s downgrade sparked intense global debate, highlighting market uncertainty and deep divisions among financial experts.  

U.S. Officials Denounce the Decision

The Trump administration largely rejected Moody’s assessment:  

- Treasury Secretary Besent, White House Press Secretary Levitt, and National Economic Council Director Hassett all discredited the downgrade.  

- Hassett called it an outdated perspective, claiming:  "This move punishes the Biden administration’s reckless spending, while we are actively working to reduce federal expenditures. The U.S. national debt remains the safest investment on Earth."

- OMB Director Vought accused Moody’s of deliberately undermining the U.S. budget plan, stating:  "Moody’s downgrade is an attempt to influence America’s ability to pass its budget legislation."

Economists & Analysts React Differently  

In contrast, Federal Reserve Governor Bostic warned that the downgrade would increase funding costs and impact economic stability, requiring the Fed to reassess monetary policy responses.  

Meanwhile, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, took an even more extreme stance, predicting:  "Moody’s decision could lead to higher interest rates, a recession, and a market collapse—possibly triggering a crisis similar to the Great Depression of 1929."

While Moody’s downgrade initially triggered losses in the crypto market, Bitcoin’s price quickly rebounded.  BTC jumped 7% following the downgrade, reaching $111,800 on May 22, marking a new all-time high.  

Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: TradingView.

Historically, Bitcoin has performed well after U.S. credit rating downgrades. For example, following S&P’s downgrade of the U.S. in 2011, Bitcoin surged over 40% within three months.  

Kiyosaki sees Moody’s downgrade as an opportunity, stating: "Economic crises often present the best chances to build wealth—holding Bitcoin as a hedge against financial uncertainty is a smart move."

Despite Trump administration officials rejecting Moody’s downgrade, the market’s reaction suggests heightened concerns over U.S. fiscal stability.  

On May 21, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion in 20-year bonds, but demand was weak. Additionally, 20-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields surpassed 5%, reinforcing negative sentiment toward the U.S. fiscal outlook.  

 1. Monitor Market Trends Closely  

●Stay updated on macroeconomic developments, particularly U.S. fiscal policy shifts.  

●Analyze financial market indicators to adjust investment strategies proactively.  

 2. Increase Allocation to Safe-Haven Assets  

●Consider increasing Bitcoin holdings to hedge against declining dollar confidence.  

●Diversify investments into non-USD stablecoins and decentralized assets to reduce exposure to dollar volatility.  

 3. Diversify Investment Portfolio  

●Balance holdings between traditional financial assets (e.g., tokenized gold like PAXG) and crypto assets.  

●Broaden exposure across different asset classes to mitigate risk.  

 4. Implement Risk Management Strategies  

●Establish stop-loss and take-profit levels to safeguard capital.  

●Remain cautious of potential reversals or unexpected market developments.  

Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit shook global financial and crypto markets, initially causing declines but ultimately fueling Bitcoin’s sharp rally to a new all-time high.  

While Trump administration officials dismissed Moody’s assessment, investors have responded by increasing allocations to safe-haven assets. Crypto markets could benefit from declining trust in the U.S. dollar, but regulatory and policy shifts remain key factors to watch.