Copper Price Forecast: Copper Price Nears Historic High, Could Rise to $15,000 in May?

On May 11, Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, issued an energy emergency decree prioritizing residential electricity supply. This puts industrial power for mines at risk of rationing, directly threatening stable production at major mines such as Cerro Verde and Antamina. Although the energy crisis has not immediately triggered large-scale shutdowns, it will first manifest in higher electricity, fuel, transportation, and smelting costs, thereby increasing marginal production pressure for copper mines.

Following the news, spot copper prices surged 2.79% on the day, closing at $13,875.5.

Furthermore, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have added uncertainty to the copper supply chain. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp drop in sulfur exports from the Middle East. Approximately 20% of global refined copper relies on hydrometallurgical processes, which consume 3-4 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of copper. The shortage of sulfuric acid has forced major hydrometallurgical copper-producing regions, such as the DRC and Chile, to face surging costs and the risk of production cuts.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs noted that China has restricted sulfuric acid exports since May 1, further tightening the relevant raw material supply chain.

While demand from the traditional construction and home appliance sectors has shown signs of fatigue in a high-interest-rate environment, the rise of AI and the new energy industry is injecting unprecedented momentum into copper consumption.

AI server clusters have power and cooling requirements that far exceed those of traditional data centers, with copper usage per unit being more than triple. As the global computing power race intensifies, AI infrastructure construction has become a new source of rigid demand for copper. Morgan Stanley predicts that global copper consumption in data centers will reach 740,000 tons by 2026 and will more than double in the coming years.

Meanwhile, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and grid upgrades constitute another major pillar of copper demand. Copper usage per EV is four times that of internal combustion engine vehicles; in PV systems, inverters and cables also use copper extensively. With the acceleration of the global energy transition, the scale of grid investment continues to expand—for instance, China's 2026 grid investment plan exceeds 600 billion yuan—making copper demand in these areas highly rigid and sustainable.

Electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and grid upgrades form another major pillar of copper demand. Copper usage per EV (approximately 80 kg) is four times that of internal combustion engine vehicles; in PV systems, inverters and cables also utilize copper extensively. As the global energy transition accelerates, the scale of grid investment continues to grow (such as China's 2026 grid investment plan exceeding 600 billion yuan), making copper demand in these fields exceptionally rigid and sustainable.

According to the latest forecast from Scotiabank mining analyst Orest Wowkodaw, the global copper market may face a supply deficit of 350,000 tons by 2027.

Copper Price Daily Chart, Source: FASTBULL

According to the daily chart, copper prices, bolstered by Peru's energy emergency decree, broke through the previous key structural resistance at $13,610 on May 11. This has further expanded the upside potential, with prices expected to test the all-time high resistance level of $14,527.45.

However, copper prices are currently encountering resistance below the Fibonacci 0.382 extension level of $14,233.5 and have entered a short-term correction phase. Prices will test the support zone between $13,500 and $13,300; if a signal of stabilization emerges at this level, the uptrend will likely resume, retesting the $14,233.5 resistance.

Copper Price Weekly Chart, Source: FASTBULL

Based on the weekly chart, copper prices are currently trading near the Fibonacci 0.382 extension resistance level of $14,233.5, where short-term upside momentum may be hindered. However, if prices decisively break and hold above this resistance, the upside toward the Fibonacci 0.5 extension at $15,000 will be opened.

In terms of the moving average system, the medium-to-long-term MA60 and MA144 continue to exhibit a bullish alignment, indicating that the medium-to-long-term trend for copper remains bullish with strong sustainability.

Support Levels: 13,500, 12,820

Resistance Levels: 14,527, 15,000

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.