阿爾法冶金資源 (AMR) 2026 年第 3 季法說會：2027 年展望

重點摘要

• Alpha Metallurgical Resources 公布 2026 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2,940 萬美元，高於第二季的 2,560 萬美元，主因出貨量從 350 萬噸增至 390 萬噸。
• 冶金煤部門的煤炭銷售成本由上一季的每噸 103.07 美元上升至每噸 106.93 美元，而冶金煤的加權平均實現價格則大致持平，為每噸 124.52 美元。
• 截至 9 月 30 日，年底流動性總額為 4.434 億美元，其中包括 3.341 億美元的現金及約當現金。ABL 融資額度未有借款。
• 管理層預期 2027 年出貨量為 1,430 萬至 1,570 萬噸，煤炭銷售成本為每噸 104 至 110 美元。
• Alpha 已與美國國內客戶簽訂 2027 年合約，簽約量為 350 萬噸，平均固定價格為每噸 135.48 美元。
• 管理層預期 DTA 受損的堆取料機需要更換，預估耗時約兩年。替代碼頭吞吐能力預計將支撐原定出貨計畫，儘管物流仍是限制出貨量大幅增長的主要瓶頸。

核心財務數據

以大西洋指數及其他機制定價的出口冶金煤實現價格為每噸 107.03 美元，而第二季為 109.08 美元。以澳洲指數定價的煤炭實現價格為每噸 150.46 美元，高於第二季的 143.82 美元。

截至 9 月 30 日，Alpha 持有 3.341 億美元現金及約當現金，並擁有 1.843 億美元未動用 ABL 額度（受 7,500 萬美元最低流動性要求限制）。該 ABL 額度無借款，流通在外的信用狀為 4,070 萬美元。

業務與營運表現

第三季出貨量較第一季的 360 萬噸和第二季的 350 萬噸有所改善。管理層表示，儘管投入成本的通膨增速已見趨緩，但成本壓力仍持續影響營運表現。

Alpha 正將其產品結構轉向更多低揮發分與中揮發分冶金煤，並減少高揮發分煤。Wildcat 礦場正持續擴產，預計將為海運市場增加至少數十萬噸的低揮發分煤供應，不過美國國內客戶也表現出採購意願。

該公司 2027 年的國內合約涵蓋 350 萬噸，平均固定價格為每噸 135.48 美元。管理層指出，相較於 2026 年，高揮發分煤在 2027 年國內煤質結構中佔比更高，進而影響了平均合約價格。

DTA 受損的 SR1 堆取料機預計將直接更換而非修復。管理層估計，客製化設計、工程規劃、建造與安裝可能耗時約兩年。在更換期間，Alpha 計劃利用漢普頓錨地（Hampton Roads）其他碼頭的運力。

管理層財務指引

銷售與管理費用指引排除非常態性費用及非現金股票薪酬。對權益法關聯企業出資包含為 DTA 提供的現金注資。

2026 年方面，以指引中位數計算，冶金煤噸數已有 87% 完成簽約並定價，平均價格為每噸 126.69 美元；另有 12% 已簽約但尚未定價。附產動力煤噸數則已全數完成簽約並定價，平均價格為每噸 76.06 美元。

風險與關注焦點

• 成本壓力：冶金煤部門煤炭銷售成本較上一季上升。管理層對 2027 年的指引假設柴油價格落在每加侖 5 美元低段至中段區間。
• DTA 營運中斷：受損的堆取料機可能需要約兩年時間更換。管理層預期不會產生重大的相關資本支出，但表示目前評估保險理賠的確切時程仍為時過早。
• 物流運力：替代碼頭提供了彈性，但管理層表示，超出目前規劃生產水準的成長空間相當有限。要達成出貨目標，需要碼頭與鐵路保持穩定可靠的運作表現。
• 煤炭市場波動：管理層指出，地緣政治衝突、全球經濟情勢以及全球鋼鐵需求疲軟均為不確定性來源。
• 指數走勢：澳洲特級低揮發分指數從 9 月 30 日的每公噸 272.10 美元下跌至 11 月 5 日的 262.20 美元，而美國東岸指數走勢則因煤質而異。

分析師問答重點

管理層表示，多數投入成本的增加已經反映在 Alpha 的成本基礎中，預期 2027 年不會較目前的營運水準大幅增加。Alpha 整體營運約消耗 2,000 萬至 2,200 萬加侖柴油，這使得燃油價格成為重要的成本敏感度因素。

針對產能增長空間，管理層表示，儘管可額外使用其他出口碼頭，DTA 仍是主要限制。Alpha 對其規劃的 2027 年營運水準感到滿意，但在缺乏強勁的碼頭與鐵路運力表現配合下，不認為有大幅超越指引上限的空間。

Wildcat 礦場的擴產應能提高低揮發分煤的供應量。管理層表示，商業決策將著眼於淨回報，而非銷售定價是否具體與澳洲或美東指數掛鉤。

關於資本配置，Alpha 持續評估潛在的交易機會，但要求必須具備地理與煤質綜效，並在財務上帶來增益。管理層表示，目前市場上能同時滿足這三項條件的機會相當有限。

規劃中的 2027 年開發支出包括：維吉尼亞州的煤泥壩工程，以支援 McClure 選煤廠與 41 號深井礦場（Deep Mine 41）；為 Road Fork 52 服務的 Kepler 選煤廠潛在工程；以及針對長遠專案進行的有限前瞻性作業。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may begin.

Emily O'Quinn

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the company's third quarter 2026 earnings release and the associated SEC filing. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures.

On the call today, I'm joined by Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson; and Chief Financial Officer, Todd Munsey, who will provide prepared remarks. Also participating on the call are our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Dan Horn. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer questions.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.

Charles Eidson

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we released our definitive third quarter financial results, which include adjusted EBITDA of $29.4 million and 3.9 million tons shipped. Our third quarter volumes improved compared to the first 2 quarters of the year, which were 3.6 million and 3.5 million tons, respectively. Cost pressures continue to influence our financial results, and we remain committed to managing these cost challenges and continually evaluating the portfolio against the needs of the metallurgical coal market.

Speaking of the market, we have completed our annual budgeting process that culminates in the operational guidance expectations we issued today. I'll let Todd cover those in detail, but it's important to note that our 2027 guidance reflects current expectations for the coming calendar year, which includes our analysis of potential financial impacts and 2027 terminal capabilities at DTA in Newport News. Following the storm-related damage that occurred in June, DTA management has worked diligently to keep operations moving and collaborate with the various parties about potential go-forward plans.

As a result of these conversations, DTA believes the stacker reclaimer referred to as SR1 will need to be replaced as opposed to repaired, and they've been in close contact with DTA's insurance provider about covering the replacement cost as well as potentially certain other expenses incurred due to the damage. As such, it's important to note that we do not anticipate significant capital outlays in association with the stacker reclaimer replacement process. As far as timing is concerned, a total replacement of the stacker reclaimer would be a fully custom build requiring specialized design, engineering, construction and installation.

Such work will likely require a lengthy time line, with current estimates in the 2-year ballpark. This is why we've worked so hard to establish a logistical framework that minimizes our disruption -- the disruption to our sales and logistics processes and allows us to keep coal moving to our customers while DTA addresses the damaged stacker reclaimer. This includes a plan to also utilize our throughput capacity at other Hampton Roads terminals in addition to DTA. As evidenced by our more normalized third quarter shipment volumes, we are optimistic about our ability to move all the tons we need to in 2027 and beyond.

As we look to next year, our guidance includes 3.5 million tons that we plan to sell to domestic customers in 2027 at an average price of $135.48 per ton. We're pleased to announce the results of the domestic negotiations, which are fixed-price annual contracts. Each year's negotiation is a little different depending on the market backdrop and a variety of factors. For example, high-vol made up a greater proportion of our 2027 domestic quality mix than in 2026, which influences the average price achieved for the total domestic book. All in all, we're pleased with these commitments, and we look forward to building the rest of our 2027 sales around opportunities in the seaborne market.

As usual, our teams are doing great work throughout the Alpha organization, and several operations have received recognition for their efforts. On the environmental front, our Paramont team in Virginia was recently honored with 3 Excellence in Mining awards from the Metallurgical Coal Producers Association. Virginia Energy also awarded them with 3 Safety Awards at their recent ceremony. Both of Alpha's mine rescue teams continue stacking wins as well, including first and second place finishes across many categories of competition in the National Mine Rescue contest that was held in August. We're extremely proud of our Paramont team that earned the top honor of National Grand Champion this year with a perfect score for the competition. These miners continually train, practice and challenge themselves so they're prepared to respond when their skills are needed. So congratulations to all those team members.

I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a review of our financial results for the third quarter.

Todd Munsey

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $29.4 million, up from $25.6 million in the second quarter. We sold 3.9 million tons in Q3, up from 3.5 million tons in Q2. Met segment realizations increased quarter-over-quarter with an average realization of $121.09 in the third quarter compared to $118.71 in the second quarter. Export Met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the third quarter realized $107.03 per ton, while export coal priced on the Australian indices realized $150.46 per ton.

These results are compared to realizations of $109.08 per ton and $143.82 per ton, respectively, in the second quarter. The realization for our metallurgical sales in the third quarter was a total weighted average of $124.52 per ton, roughly flat against the second quarter average of $124.30 per ton. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the Met segment were also essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at $79.44 per ton in Q3 compared to $79.36 per ton in Q2. Cost of coal sales for our Met segment increased to $106.93 per ton in the third quarter, up from $103.07 per ton in the second quarter. SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items, increased to $15 million in the third quarter compared to $13.7 million in the second quarter.

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. As of September 30, we had $334.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as compared to $338.5 million of cash and short-term investments as of June 30. We had $184.3 million in unused availability under our ABL at the end of the third quarter, partially offset by a minimum required liquidity of $75 million. As of the end of September, Alpha had total liquidity of $443.4 million, down slightly from $447.8 million at the end of June. CapEx for the third quarter was $33.8 million, down from $45.1 million in Q2. Cash provided by operating activities was $46.9 million in the third quarter, up from $39.9 million in the second quarter. As of September 30, our ABL facility had no borrowings and $40.7 million of letters of credit outstanding.

Looking ahead, we issued 2027 operational guidance this morning. For sales volumes, we expect to ship between 13.1 million and 14.1 million metallurgical tons as well as another 1.2 million to 1.6 million tons of incidental thermal coal, bringing total 2027 shipment expectations to a range of 14.3 million to 15.7 million tons for the year. For 2027 cost of coal sales, we are guiding to a range of $104 to $110 per ton. Selling, general and administrative costs are expected to be between $53 million and $59 million in 2027, excluding nonrecurring expenses and noncash stock compensation. Idle expense is expected to be between $25 million and $33 million. We anticipate 2027 net cash interest income of between $2 million and $4 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of $148 million to $162 million.

Capital expenditures, including carryover development and maintenance capital, are expected to be in the range of $145 million to $165 million. Contributions to equity affiliates are expected to be in the range of $28 million to $37 million, which include cash contributions for DTA. Lastly, we are projecting a 2027 cash tax rate of between 0% and 5%.

In terms of our committed position for 2026, at the midpoint of guidance, 87% of our metallurgical tonnage in the Met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $126.69. Another 12% of our Met tonnage for the year is committed, but not yet priced. The thermal byproduct portion of the Met segment is fully committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $76.06.

Coal markets remain subject to uncertainty and volatility resulting from geopolitical conflicts and global economic conditions. Improving indicators and manufacturing conditions across key Alpha markets suggest that economic conditions are stable with almost all in growth territory. While global steel demand remains weak, supply related factors such as mine closure announcements temporarily influenced metallurgical coal indices to rise toward the end of the third quarter with further volatility continuing after the quarter close.

The Australian Premium Low Vol index increased from $244 per metric ton on July 1 to $272.10 per metric ton on September 30. The U.S. East Coast Low Vol index rose from $190 per metric ton at the beginning of the quarter to $210 per metric ton by the end of September. The U.S. East Coast High Vol A index increased from $157 per metric ton at the start of the quarter to $195 per metric ton at the quarter's close. And the U.S. East Coast High Vol B index rose from $147 per metric ton to $170 per metric ton at the end of the quarter. Since then, the Australian Premium Low Vol index has decreased to $262.20 per metric ton as of November 5, representing a drop of roughly 4% since quarter close.

U.S. East Coast Low Vol is unchanged from quarter close, at $210 per ton. U.S. East Coast High Vol A has declined about 3% to $190 per ton, while High Vol B has risen slightly to $174.50 per ton as of November 5. In the seaborne thermal market, the API2 index was $115.50 per metric ton at the beginning of July and increased to $141.40 per metric ton at the end of September. Since then, the API2 index has moved down to $136.30 per metric ton as of November 5.

With that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from George Eadie with UBS.

分析師問答

George Eadie

Can I ask on the cost front? So cash costs only 2% higher year-on-year at midpoint, even if I adjust for marginally higher midpoint sales volumes. Can you maybe just talk through what goes into that and sort of potential cost sensitivities for things like diesel? And I guess it sort of seems like a very low year-on-year cost increase given a lot in this sector are talking about a lot of input and broader sort of cost pressures.

Charles Eidson

George, this is Andy. I appreciate the question. Yes, we're actually pretty pleased with where our cost guidance is coming out for next year, although it is up a bit. I mean we've really seen the vast majority of the input cost impacts have already found their way into the system for us. So again, we would hope that there would be some relief on the diesel side. Hopefully, that situation gets resolved sometime in the near future.

And even then, it will take a while to work its way through the system. But we're just -- we're not saying that the input cost increases have flatlined, but the rate of increase has tailed back quite a bit. And once you bake in the impact of the diesel and all the oil adjuncts, I think we're -- currently, our run rate is pretty well reflective of that. So next year, we don't see a material amount of increase from there.

George Eadie

What diesel price did you assume in guidance for '27, Andy?

Charles Eidson

Off the top of my head, I don't know. Yes, I think it was low to mid-5s on a per gallon cost.

George Eadie

Okay. And then like what's the sensitivity, if you were to sort of estimate ballpark per ton on your cash cost, if that went back to sort of, say, mid-3s, like what's the potential production cash cost?

Charles Eidson

Well, I'll leave you to do the math on that, but we do run in the low 20 million gallons of diesel across all operations. So 20 million to 22 million gallons. So you could figure what the sensitivity is on that across all the tons.

George Eadie

Okay. Yes, that's perfect. And then just one more, sort of getting back to the 16 million ton per annum levels. Can you talk through how that looks? And if DTA sort of being down for the 2-year ballpark you guys flagged, is a constraint? Or I guess another way of asking was if markets got a lot stronger next year, could you push beyond that 15.7 million upper end, do you think? Or like what is the constraining limit to higher volumes for you guys at the moment?

Charles Eidson

Yes. I mean DTA obviously will be a constraint. Our sales and logistics team has done a really nice job, as I mentioned in the comments -- the prepared comments. They've done a nice job of finding flexibility and optionality with other export terminal access. So there will be a point in which we can't expand any further. I'm not going to throw out a number for that because, again, the team is pretty creative in finding new paths to get tons where we need them to go. But I think we're comfortable with our current run rate. I don't think there's a huge amount of upside to that.

And we're going to need the terminals to operate well, we're going to need the railroads to perform well to hit all of our numbers the way we want to. But I think we're going to be able to get there. And it's not going to look that different year-over-year comparing to 2026. From a quality perspective, it's going to look a little bit different because, again, I think we are moving around in our -- as has been our plan, we are shifting as a lot of other folks are. We've been working on a multiyear plan to shift more of our production from higher-ranked coals from the low-vol and mid-vol and a little bit less on the high-vol side. So that will continue to develop. But I think logistically, all of that fits pretty well into what we've got planned for 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities.

Nick Giles

It was good to hear that there's more high-vol coal in the domestic mix, which I assume leaves more low-vol coals to send into the seaborne market. So I was wondering if you could just quantify that mix shift, maybe how many incremental tons of low-vol would you be able to send -- export next year?

Charles Eidson

Nick, I'll throw that one over to Dan. That one is definitely -- he's got the numbers at his fingertips there.

Daniel Horn

Thanks, Andy. Well, let's start by saying that the high-vol that moved into the domestic market, that's coal that is a little -- let's say, a little lower value coal, and that was reflected in the overall comments that we have there in the pricing. But as we ramp up the low-vol mine, our new Wildcat mine, it's kind of dynamic. So you can't really compare our portfolio in '26 to what it's going to look like in '27. So as Wildcat ramps up, we'll have more low-vol available.

And broadly speaking, that's -- at this moment, that's all available for the seaborne market, but we've had a lot of interest in the domestic market, too, as it ramps up. But I won't give you a number, but it's several hundred thousand tons at least that would be available to go seaborne easily as well as our usual mix of high-vol and quite a bit of medium-vol, which is always sought after.

Nick Giles

Got it. Okay. I mean any sense for how much of that would be PLV linked? Or I guess, kind of what do the commercial discussions look like today in terms of getting more tons sold on a PLV basis?

Daniel Horn

Yes. I don't have -- there's -- I'll say this, there's quite a bit of interest from customers that we would sell against the Aussie indices, but I can't quantify that. The Wildcat coal is a premium coal that should -- that will achieve a premium to a lot of other U.S. low-vols, we think. So whether we sell it against an Aussie index or very strongly against the U.S. East Coast index, I mean, we're happy. We focus on the net return, not just the index.

Nick Giles

Makes sense. No, I appreciate that. Maybe just shifting gears to the stacker reclaimer. It's good to hear that you feel like that's fully covered from an insurance perspective. But how should we think about the timing of those insurance reimbursements versus any capital outlays that may be required? Or said differently, is there a scenario where you might have to invest in the new stacker reclaimer and kind of wait a few quarters for the insurance reimbursements to come in?

Charles Eidson

Yes. I think it's probably a little too early to comment on that one, Nick. I don't expect there to be too much of a sequencing problem from that respect, certainly not a multi-quarter type of reimbursement gap. Obviously, you may have a few weeks or a few months, but we're pretty pleased with how our insurance -- or DTA's insurance carriers has responded thus far. They've been very helpful and constructive in helping us move along this process relatively quickly. So yes, I don't expect an impact. But again, it's probably too early in the process to be making too many prognostications there.

Nick Giles

Okay. No, fair enough, Andy. Maybe just one last one from me on the capital allocation front. Would just be good to get an update on what you're seeing among your kind of smaller peers in Central App. Are there any opportunities out there to pick up some tons at a discount? Or have you heard any rumblings of kind of more capacity that's come offline?

Charles Eidson

Really not in a position to comment on any of those folks. I mean they'll have to speak for themselves. There's -- as we've always taken the position, we look at anything and everything. We want things to be a good strategic fit. If things are available, we want it to be either -- or not either, but a combination of geographically synergistic, quality synergistic and accretive from a financial standpoint. And those boxes, all 3 boxes are kind of hard to check right now when you look around the chessboard.

But there are some things out there that we can look at. But again, we're really focused on managing our own portfolio, particularly in markets like this, making sure that we're optimizing our outcomes and optimizing both the productivity and the profitability of the portfolio.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with StoneX.

Nathan Martin

I had a question on DTA as well. I mean just given the fact that you said the repair/replacement time line could be extended into a year or 2. Just curious, do you see any opportunity to improve logistics or lower transportation or port costs in the meantime?

Charles Eidson

In the meantime, before we get to a repaired DTA? Probably not. I mean that's more of a focus on just getting the tons moved where we can as best we can. On the other side of DTA and during the repair, could there be some opportunities? Yes, I mean, any time you're looking at older equipment that's going to have to be replaced for any reason, you're going to hope to find some opportunities to improve things and whether it's from a throughput capacity standpoint or from a cost reduction. So -- but that will -- that's for future conversations as we actually get into the nuts and bolts of mechanically fixing and replacing the SR.

Nathan Martin

All right. Understood, Andy. I appreciate that. And then maybe looking at CapEx for '27. Guidance falls roughly flat year-over-year. I noticed an updated slide in your deck with kind of the breakdown there, but maybe you can provide a little more detail around the development projects you plan to spend capital on in '27 because I see that's kind of ticked up a little bit there.

Charles Eidson

Yes. I mean some of that is related to existing operations. We do have some refuse impoundment needs in Virginia that will obviously extend the life and help with managing the waste cost at the McClure prep plant, where Deep Mine 41 is handled. So that's obviously something that we're very focused on. Likewise, some potential work at the Kepler prep plant, where Road Fork 52 reports. And Road Fork 52, Deep Mine 41 definitely being at the top of our list as far as the portfolio of mines that we have.

Any development -- any other development, we're looking at other -- kind of our next projects, which are a little bit longer dated, a couple, 3 years out, just doing a little bit of prospective work there, not necessarily committing to a project, but making sure things are moving to the extent where if we want to pursue a project, we're not losing any time. So not a whole lot to report on that just yet.

Nathan Martin

All right. I appreciate that. And then maybe a final question for Dan. Dan, how should we think about the quality mix of what you guys have left to sell here for '26? I think you're roughly 80% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance, so seemingly a few tons left to put to bed. How should we think about that as we head to the end of the year?

Daniel Horn

Yes, Nate, probably the typical blend. Maybe a little heavier with the low-vol. As Wildcat ramps up, we're producing a little more of that. So I don't think -- probably the same roughly blend. Still a fair half high-vol maybe and maybe the rest mid and low, something like that. But again, with -- going forward -- I'm sorry, going forward, more low. Our plan is and it will happen that we're going to have more low-vol in our mix and more medium-vol as we go forward. That's certainly the plan, and less high-vol. But the rest of the year is pretty well known. It's right in front of us.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now turn the call over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.

Charles Eidson

Well, thanks, everyone, for dialing into the call and checking in online. We appreciate your interest in Alpha, and we hope you all have a great weekend.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.