Markets may recover slowly after fragile ceasefire, Oxford Economics experts say

April 8 (Reuters) - Sceptical global markets will need months to recover from the impact of the Middle East conflict even if a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds, experts at Oxford Economics said on Wednesday.

Asian and European stocks soared after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the agreement late on Tuesday, but gains hinge on the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with implications on energy markets and global economies.

• "The agreement is fragile, key operational details remain to be worked through, and even in the best case, physical (oil) flows are likely to recover only gradually," Bridget Payne, head of oil and gas forecasting at Oxford Economics, said in a webinar

• Payne added that LNG flows should resume more slowly due to damage to gas facilities in the region, which will mostly impact European and Asian markets

• End to the conflict and a drop in oil prices would likely avert rate hikes in Europe and bring expectations on global inflation and growth closer to February levels, director of macro forecasting and analysis Ben May said

• For countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Oxford Economics cut its 2026 forecast for real GDP growth by 5.2 percentage points, with Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain hit hardest

• However, it raised the 2027 forecast by 3.2 percentage points, assuming the war comes to an end

• Global financial markets have been resilient, but if uncertainty over the ceasefire continues that "could certainly be a shock magnifier", May added

• Among the hardest hit sectors, tourism in the region will take months to recover despite the importance of Gulf airports as international traffic hubs, economist Aaron Goldring from Oxford's tourism economics unit said

• "You're looking at sentiment impacts lasting the whole way through to Q4 as a result of all the airspace cancellations, but also that loss of perception of safety which is extremely important in the tourism sector," Goldring said