Today’s Market Recap: Trump Hints US-Iran Basically Over, Crude Oil Plunges, US Stock Market Rebounds

Tracking the Market Trend

TradingKey - Major U.S. stock indices rallied collectively on Tuesday, S&P 500 rose 0.83% to 6,795.99, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.38% to 22,695.94, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.50% to 47,740.80.

Early in Tuesday's U.S. trading session, tensions in the Middle East remained high, and crude oil futures briefly surged toward $120 per barrel. However, near the close, the U.S. stock market rallied sharply to finish higher after President Trump stated that the "war is almost over." Crude oil futures also plummeted to around $80 per barrel.

While signals of the war's end were a positive for the U.S. stock market, things have not yet settled. Furthermore, shipping delays in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a series of ripple effects in downstream regions, and the full impact has yet to materialize. Additionally, rising gasoline prices will exacerbate U.S. inflation, housing price increases, potential tariff impacts, and the overall economic landscape of a K-shaped recovery.

It is worth noting, however, that over the past few years, whenever the U.S. has faced geopolitical or major historical events, the probability of the market being higher one year later has been as high as two-thirds, so investors need not be overly concerned.

Morgan Stanley (MS) upgraded its rating on Nvidia (NVDA) , and growing optimism over AI prospects pushed the stock up approximately 2.7%, leading a rebound in technology shares. Meanwhile, Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) shares surged nearly 6% following a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and supportive comments from Goldman Sachs, highlighting market appetite for select event-driven stocks.

Market Headline

Trump says U.S.-Iran war is "essentially over," sending international crude prices tumbling. Trump stated that the U.S. war against Iran could end soon, progressing "much faster" than the 4 to 5 weeks he originally anticipated. "Iran has no navy, no communication system, and no air force," he said. Trump claimed that Iran's drone and missile capabilities are being "completely destroyed," and that the U.S. and its allies will continue military operations until the enemy is "completely defeated."

G7 says no immediate oil reserve release, but "stands ready" to support global energy supply. G7 finance ministers stated they would closely monitor energy market dynamics and are prepared to take necessary steps to support global energy supplies, including releasing strategic petroleum reserves, though no immediate action was announced. France's finance minister, representing the G7 presidency, noted that no material supply shortages currently exist in Europe or the U.S. European Commission officials cited reserve releases as an option under consideration. Trump is reportedly considering export restrictions and tax exemptions to stabilize oil prices, claiming he has a plan to address costs. The U.S. Energy Secretary mentioned that the administration is discussing a coordinated reserve release.

Middle East oil production cuts reach 2 million bpd, expected to exceed 4 million bpd by Friday. Due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz leaving many cargo ships stranded, Saudi Arabia has rerouted crude exports through the Red Sea and turned to spot sales. Saudi Aramco broke long-term contract traditions, rare for the company, to sell crude on the spot market through tenders. Offers have been issued for Arab Super Light, Arab Heavy, and its flagship Arab Light grades, with total listings for the three grades reaching approximately 4.6 million barrels recently. Tender bids were set at a premium to the March OSP levels.

Iran warns oil prices could exceed $200 and remain in triple digits for an extended period. Iran stated that maritime security in the Strait is unlikely as long as the U.S. and Israel continue their strikes, warning that tankers transiting the area must be extremely cautious. Saudi Arabia reported a drone attack on one of its largest domestic oil fields, warning that Iran will be the biggest loser if it continues attacking neighbors. Trump is set to hold his first press conference since the conflict began, stating that conditions have not reached the point where U.S. troops would enter Iran to "protect" nuclear materials.

Asian nations release oil reserves, scrap fuel tariffs, and set price caps. Driven by surging oil prices, several Asian economies are rapidly implementing emergency energy measures: Vietnam is easing taxes and using market mechanisms to secure supplies; South Korea has reinstated oil price caps for the first time in 30 years; Japan is preparing to release strategic reserves; and Bangladesh is curtailing demand by closing universities and limiting fuel sales.

Jensen Huang tells DRAM makers to expand production, says Nvidia will buy as much as they can produce. Jensen Huang stated at a Morgan Stanley technology conference: no matter how much DRAM manufacturers expand capacity, Nvidia will consume it all. As Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform adopts more complex HBM4 specifications, memory resource consumption has doubled, leaving even expanded production from the big three DRAM makers struggling to fill the gap. Samsung and SK Hynix have both made Nvidia's HBM4 supplier list, and the battle for memory for Nvidia's next-generation AI flagship, Vera Rubin, has begun, with mass production expected to start as early as this month.

OpenClaw 3.8 Released. Iteration 3.8-beta.1 was launched just one day after the release of OpenClaw version 3.7. This update focuses on five key areas: adding local backup and verification mechanisms to ensure data security; optimizing silence-wait configurations for Talk voice mode; expanding model compatibility to million-token levels and strengthening Brave search; specialized thinning for macOS and Android versions; and comprehensive security hardening in areas such as script execution and SSRF protection.

Top 10 Most Traded Stocks

The table below lists the ten most actively traded stocks in the market. With their massive trading volumes and high liquidity, these stocks have become key bellwethers for tracking global market dynamics.