LIVE MARKETS-Berenberg slashes US growth forecast as H-1B curbs threaten brain drain

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BERENBERG SLASHES US GROWTH FORECAST AS H-1B CURBS THREATEN BRAIN DRAIN
The U.S. economy may be heading for a slower growth path, as tighter immigration rules under the revised H1-B visa policy threaten to shrink the labor force, says Atakan Bakiskan, economist at Berenberg.
Berenberg cut its estimate for U.S. trend growth to 1.5% from 2.0%, and Bakiskan cautioned that even that may prove optimistic if policies remain unchanged.
"With the new H1B policy, the labor force is more likely to shrink than expand going forward," Bakiskan said in a note. "The future of economic growth now depends almost exclusively on productivity gains."
But productivity may also take a hit. Bakiskan warned that restrictive immigration policies are driving away foreign talent and international students, undermining innovation and long-term output.
"Big Tech firms, which lead capital expenditure on AI, rely most heavily on the H1B visa programme," he said. "Investments in AI are unlikely to offset the damage caused by the loss of human capital."
He adds that a mix of institutional erosion, tariffs, fiscal uncertainty and brain drain could raise the tail risk of a financial crisis and weigh on the dollar and long-term yields.
Shares of Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH.O, JP Morgan JPM.N and Intel INTC.O, which rank among the biggest sponsors of H-1B visas, were down between 0.5% and 1.7% in premarket trading.

(Medha Singh)
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