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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks rise after Wall Street respite; focus on Trump-Putin call

ReutersMar 18, 2025 9:32 AM
  • Russian rouble hits over eight-month high vs dollar
  • EM stocks index up 1.2%, at three-week highs
  • South Africa interest rate decision on Thursday

By Shashwat Chauhan

- Most emerging market (EM) stocks perked up on Tuesday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street, though focus was on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and a plethora of interest rate decisions later in the week.

The rouble RUB= jumped 2.7% to a more than eight-month high ahead of talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where Trump is expected to push Putin to accept a ceasefire in Russia's war with Ukraine and move toward a more permanent end to the three-year conflict.

"Any progress towards Russia accepting the ceasefire plan laid out by the U.S. and Ukraine can add extra pressure on the safe-haven dollar," ING analysts said in a note.

The ever-changing U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration has rattled markets, with the dollar dipping against most developed market peers. Emerging markets have cashed in somewhat on the greenback's weakness.

MSCI's index for EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS has advanced almost 2% so far this year compared with a more than 4% fall in the dollar index =USD in the year to date.

The Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday will be in the spotlight later on, with markets widely expecting the central bank to hold its rate stead. However, recent uncertainty around U.S. trade policies and fears of an economic slowdown have led to markets pricing in greater policy easing by the year-end.

EM stocks, meanwhile, have outperformed the U.S. S&P 500 .SPX so far in March, as beaten down Indian equities have recouped some of their losses and Beijing vowing more support for its ailing economy helped Chinese equities recover.

MSCI's broad gauge for EM stocks .MSCIEF jumped 1.2% to a three-week high, following a more than 0.6% rise in the S&P 500 overnight.

Hong Kong stocks .HSI hit a more than three-year high, while the Indian benchmark .NSEI gained 1.2%.

Central Eastern Europe was not far behind, as hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine lifted sentiment, in contrast to a sharp drop in American equities, where the S&P 500 slipped into a technical correction last week.

Polish blue-chips .WIG20 continued their recent strong run, adding 1.5% to reach their highest level since July 2011.

Also on the radar was Germany's lower house of parliament voting on Tuesday on a massive surge in borrowing that could boost Europe's largest economy and stimulate growth across the region.

JP Morgan analysts see stronger European growth as a positive for EM equities, though conditional to the U.S. not slipping into a recession.

South Africa's rand ZAR= meanwhile, firmed 0.3% as gold XAU= - one of South Africa's top exports - continued its stellar run to an all-time high.

The South African Reserve Bank is widely expected to hold its rate steady at 7.50% on Thursday. Interest rate decision in Brazil, Chile and Russia are also due later in the week.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Bank of Korea board wary of faster loss of economic momentum, minutes show

** Polish central banker Litwiniuk says rate cut possible before July

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
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