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Canada: Growth risks from energy shock – Rabobank

Rabobank Strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note that Canadian GDP contracted 0.6% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q4 2025 but still rose 0.7% year‑over‑year, with weakness driven by inventory drawdowns.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.4% (March 13) vs 6.2%

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.4% (March 13) vs 6.2%

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

US: Diesel prices have surged above $5 – BNY

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights U.S. diesel prices breaking above $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, warning of pass‑through to transport and broader inflation and potential political risks into the U.S. midterms.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Aluminium: Chinese output above cap on price incentives – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's FX & Commodity Analyst Volkmar Baur reports that Chinese Aluminium production has risen nearly 3% year-on-year and is running above the government’s annualized cap, supported by higher Aluminium prices and redirected Alumina flows as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 15.5K to 9K in February 21

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 15.5K to 9K in February 21

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

USD: Peak fear debate on Strait risks – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar is trading defensively even as Brent holds above $100 and European gas prices stay elevated.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment turns negative, arrives at -0.5

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment arrives at -0.5 in March. Economists expected the sentiment data to come in lower at 38.7 from 58.3 in February.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

PLN: Disinflation offsets but risks cap gains – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that updated Polish CPI data confirm disinflation, with core inflation at 2.5% year-on-year, in line with the central bank of Poland, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) target.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

CEE FX: Central banks comfortable waiting out shock – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that Central and Eastern European FX and rates have seen some relief despite elevated energy prices. Regional central banks currently treat the Gulf-related energy spike as a supply shock and prefer to wait, with no case for hikes.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.5%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.5%)

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (0.8%) in February

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (0.8%) in February

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (1.6%) in February

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (1.6%) in February

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.5%, below expectations (0.6%) in February

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.5%, below expectations (0.6%) in February

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

BoC: Policy hold as war risk lifts inflation – Rabobank

Rabobank Strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% at the March 18 meeting and through year-end, despite elevated inflation and weaker activity.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Israel vows retaliation against Iran attacks on US embassy in Iraq

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warn retaliation against Iran for attacking the United States (US) embassy in Iraq, in which four people were killed, The Guardian reported.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

SEK: Riksbank risk focus limits moves – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% this week and signal no near-term changes, with a first hike only possible late in the year.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

RBA: Close split keeps May hike in play – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo note the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.10% in a narrow 5-4 decision, driven mainly by elevated domestic inflation and excess demand.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with expectations (4.75%)

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with expectations (4.75%)

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY): -2.7% (February) vs previous -2.2%

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY): -2.7% (February) vs previous -2.2%

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

GBP/USD: Negative bias capped by 1.3350 – UOB

According to UOB’s Senior Technical Strategist Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD’s sharp rebound from 1.3226 to 1.3340 looks like short-covering rather than a trend change. The pair is expected to range between 1.3250 and 1.3350 intraday.

Fxstreet

Tue, Mar 17

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