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ANALYSIS-Treasury market's next test: rising war costs
Inflation fears drive bonds for now, fiscal fears may be nextHigher defense costs, tariff refunds and potential stimulus a risk to deficitFed rate hikes and geopolitical risks pose near-term threatsBy Karen Brettell March 31 (Reuters) - Inflation risks have driven Treasury yields higher since the...Reuters
Tue, Mar 31
German unemployment remains unchanged in March
Jobless rate unchanged at 6.3%, defying predictionsSpring labour market upturn lacks significant momentumEconomy struggles with energy prices, geopolitical tensionsBy Maria Martinez BERLIN, March 31 (Reuters) - The number of unemployed people in Germany remained unchanged in March, labour office ...Reuters
Tue, Mar 31
BoJ: Data signal case for more tightening – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered analysts Nicholas Chia and Chong Hoon Park highlight that new Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicators show underlying inflation near or above the 2% target and a positive output gap since Q1 2022, suggesting growth above potential.Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
Euro zone inflation surges past ECB target on oil shock
Headline inflation 2.5% in March vs 1.9% in FebEnergy price accounts for vast majority of riseECB debating whether to raise rates FRANKFURT, March 31 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation soared past the European Central Bank's 2% target this month due to surging oil and gas prices, heightening a p...Reuters
Tue, Mar 31
AUD: RBA keeps May hike option open on Iran risk – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that RBA minutes show March’s back‑to‑back rate hike was a closer call than markets assumed. Board members agreed more tightening is needed but differed on timing, with the March move mainly aimed at preserving flexibility.
Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
ECB: War-driven energy shock shapes rate path – Nomura
Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak argues that March Euro area inflation will not significantly alter the ECB’s near-term policy stance. They expect policy rates to stay unchanged through Q4 2027, with the Iran war and its impact on Brent crude and energy prices now the key driver of ECB decisions.Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
German unemployment remains unchanged in March
BERLIN, March 31 (Reuters) - The number of unemployed people in Germany remained unchanged in March, labour office figures showed on Tuesday.In seasonally adjusted terms, the jobless figure remained the same as in February at 2.977 million. Analysts and economists had predicted an increase of 2,000 ...Reuters
Tue, Mar 31
Euro zone bonds steady as traders weigh inflation hit from Iran war
LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields were little changed on Tuesday after falling the previous day, as traders weighed the chances of an end to the Iran war and awaited data expected to show a sharp rise in inflation in March due to higher energy costs.Yields had retreated f...Reuters
Tue, Mar 31
Fed: Balance sheet focus and rate-cut path – BNY
BNY’s Americas Macro Strategist John Velis discusses how Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet reduction is moving up the agenda, with officials like Kevin Warsh and Stephen Miran favoring a smaller footprint achieved mainly via lower reserves.Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
