Sandisk Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview: $8B Revenue, 80% Margins, and a Raised Bar

The estimates this time around are even higher after an exceptionally impressive quarter last time. In Fiscal Q3 merchandise sales rose 97% sequentially and 251% from the year prior, coming in at $5.95 billion, far beyond the anticipated range of $4.4 - $4.8 billion. Earnings per share came in at $23.03 for GAAP EPS and $23.41 for non-GAAP with an anticipated range of $12 - $14. Non-GAAP gross margin also came in at an impressive 78.4% with a 51.1% improvement in gross margin from the quarter prior.

Similar to last quarter, management is anticipating EPS for the final quarter to be in the $30 - $33 range with a revenue projection of $7.75 - $8.25 billion. This time around, however, expectations for earnings have exceeded the management’s guidance. Analysts have predicted a slightly higher EPS at $34 per share with a predicted revenue of $8.3 billion. Merely meeting the guidance may not impress the market this time around.

NAND flash has always been something of a blood sport with cyclical pricing, razor-thin margins, and zero pricing power. What’s different is what Sandisk calls their New Business Model (NBM). This is essentially one-off, multi-year supply contracts with Hyperscalers. The contracts are fully funded. As of the last quarter, NBM contracts covered one-third of fiscal 2027 bit needs and included over $11 billion of enforceable commitments and an estimated $42 billion of contracted revenue backlog.

That is why margins have almost tripled, going from the low 50s to near 80%. This seals pricing and volume commitments and thus isolates Sandisk from the volatility of the spot market that characterized their business. The question is if the report shows that hateful backlog staying the same, if at all, and if management will defend their claim of these margins being structural and not a cyclical peak.

• Revenue versus consensus. $7.75 - $8.25 billion is the guidance, and estimates are for $8.3 billion. Anything below that, even if it's in-range, will cause a sell off due to the tendency of the stock.
• Gross margin and FY2027 Outlook. Guidance is between 79 - 81%. But, more important than the numbers will be what management says will be the sustainability of those margins within fiscal 2027.
• Demand for enterprise SSDs and Datacenter SSDs. A sequential rise of 233% in the last quarter for Datacenter revenue was attributed to Demand Stimulated by AI-inference storage. Quarterly results should show this Demand as well as the start of volume production of QLC Stargate.
• NBM backlog and buyback. Keep an eye out for significant multi-year contracts beyond the $42 billion already signed, in addition to the pace of the $6 billion repurchase authorization now that Sandisk is net-cash positive.
• Mind the roadmap and the Investor Day prep. The first High Bandwidth Flash standard announced this week, along with progress on BiCS8 and BiCS10, sets expectations for the longer-term targets management may provide/share on the August 13 Investor Day.

NAND memory contains multiple layers. Due to the NAND Memory Battling Mater Contracts (NBM), earnings become more stable. Marginally then, NAND is an important strategic resource, and there is Wall Street consensus. Analysts covering the stock average a target of approximately $2,400, which is 70% above the stock price, with the highest target being $3,050.

Sandisk Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The lowest target is $1,600. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $2,200 in July. The bear case is more time-tested and is simply the idea that NAND is a commodity. Commodity margins eventually return to the mean. 

The majority of the NAND manufacturing comes out of China. There are expensive competitors that push down the price of the means of production. Even with a 78% gross margin, the Skeptics believe the margin is a cycle peak and will eventually return to normal supply. The almost 47 times trailing earnings are a strong value investment for this year. Tonight’s guidance will provide insight on if NAND is a durable commodity.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $1,456 → $1,534 → $1,698 → $1,940
• Support: $1,371 → $1,156 → $973 → $831
• 50 EMA: $1,371 (reclaimed)
• 100 EMA: $1,534 (the downtrend line bulls must break)
• 2026 high: ~$2,354 — the summer peak before the July crash
• RSI: ~61, bullish but not yet overbought

Key Dates

• Q4/FY2026 results + call: Aug 5, 1:30 p.m. PT / 4:30 p.m. ET (after close)
• Investor Day: Aug 13, 9:00 a.m. ET

Sandisk reports fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results after the U.S. market close on August 5, 2026, with a conference call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific (4:30 p.m. Eastern). An Investor Day follows on August 13.

Management is expecting revenue around $7.75 - 8.25 billion with non-GAAP EPS around $30 - $33. Analyst expectations are higher, with expectations around $8.3 billion for revenue and around $34 for EPS. Because of this, the market is forecasting a positive surprise for Sandisk. The net margin durability for fiscal year 2027 is what provides the biggest business impact for Sandisk. This is not intended to be investment advice.

Sandisk was one of the more talked about companies this quarter given its new position in the AI-memory market. The previous quarter was a blowout with $5.95 billion in revenue and 78% gross margins. Preliminary numbers are suggesting that this quarter could be the best yet. However, the stock has had a wild ride already this year going from $1,200 to $2,350 and back to $1,438. 

Street expectations are now above Management’s numbers. If the numbers confirm that the new contracts have them maintaining 80% margins for the next couple of years, the average target of $2,400 is definitely doable. 

However, if they are more conservative about the pricing, we saw what happened in July and how quickly it can drop. Technical analysis suggests we need to maintain $1,371 to continue the bullish sentiment, and $1,456 would open a bullish trajectory towards $1,534.