Australian Dollar Rises as Markets Price in March Rba Rate Hike

• Australian Dollar advances as markets expect the RBA to increase interest rates in March.
• A Reuters poll shows 23 of 30 economists expect the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.10% on March 17.
• January’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be eyed later on Friday.

AUD/USD gains ground after registering over 1% losses in the previous session, trading around 0.7090 during the Asian hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) finds support against the US Dollar (USD) amid hawkish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook.

A Reuters poll released Friday showed that 23 of 30 economists expect the RBA to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% on March 17, while seven anticipate no change. The latest survey represents a shift from February’s poll, which projected the rate would remain at 3.85%. The median forecast now sees the cash rate reaching 4.35% by the end of 2026.

Francesco Pesole of ING identifies the Australian Dollar as one of the top-performing G10 currencies, supported by firm expectations of further RBA tightening and elevated Oil prices. Markets currently price in a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike next week, with AUD/USD potentially targeting 0.7200 if equity markets remain stable. However, stretched positioning increases the risk of a correction following the policy decision.

ING’s Pesole noted that equity market instability remains a key downside risk for the Australian Dollar, while markets are increasingly aggressive in pricing another RBA rate hike on March 17. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point increase has climbed to 70% in the Cash Rate futures market, with economist consensus also shifting toward a tightening move.

Meanwhile, traders are preparing for another key US inflation release. January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is due later in the day, although it will not reflect the impact of the Iran war. Additional US data scheduled for release includes the first revision of fourth-quarter GDP growth and March consumer confidence.