HBM4 Capacity Doubles, HBM4E Orders Shift to TSMC, Can Micron Shares Break $1,000?

On February 9, 2026, industry analysis firm SemiAnalysis released a report slashing its forecast for Micron's first-year HBM4 order share on NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform to "zero," estimating that SK Hynix will capture approximately 70% while Samsung secures 30%.

Micron insisted on designing and manufacturing HBM4 base dies in-house without utilizing external advanced nodes, causing its samples to lag behind in key performance metrics such as pin speed.

The root of Micron's crisis lies in its strategic choices: in the HBM sector, characterized by rapid iterations and deep integration with logic processes, the company underestimated customers' reliance on advanced foundry services at the time.

On March 17, Micron announced that its 12-high stacked 36GB HBM4, designed specifically for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform, began mass production and shipping in the first quarter of 2026. The product features a pin speed of 11.2 Gb/s and a bandwidth of 2.8 TB/s, with power efficiency improved by 23% compared to HBM3E.

Manish Bhatia, Micron's Vice President of Global Operations, confirmed that Micron has become one of the key suppliers for the Vera Rubin platform, directly debunking market projections of "zero market share."

Although Counterpoint Research previously predicted that Micron would hold only 18% of the global HBM4 market share in 2026—with SK Hynix at 54% and Samsung at 28%—the Q1 mass production signifies that Micron has at least secured a share in the first round of shipments for the next-generation AI computing platform, providing critical leverage for pursuing larger orders in the future.

For the more advanced HBM4E generation, Micron's strategic pivot is clear: core DRAM will upgrade to the 1γ process, marking the first integration of EUV lithography, while the base die will transition from in-house development to TSMC foundry production, with mass production scheduled for 2027.

Micron has also set an internal goal for 1γ DRAM and ninth-generation NAND shipments to exceed half of its total capacity by mid-2026. The paths of the three major players are diverging: Samsung is sticking with in-house base dies (4nm), while SK Hynix is also employing TSMC’s 3nm process, with sampling expected in the second half of 2026 and mass production in 2027.

The core of this shift is Micron acknowledging its process limitations by outsourcing the most advanced manufacturing requirements to TSMC. Although outsourcing adds cost, it secures product performance and time-to-market. The capital market clearly favors the latter; institutions such as HSBC and Deutsche Bank sharply raised their price targets following the news, suggesting investors would rather pay for "course correction" than adhere to the sentiment of "in-house development."

HSBC raised its 12-month price target for Micron from $750 to $1,100 on May 19, citing the sustained strength in memory demand driven by AI. Deutsche Bank raised its 12-month price target from $550 to $1,000. Citi increased its target to $840, corresponding to 8 times fiscal 2027 P/E.

Notably, the intensive price target upgrades by investment banks are themselves driving up market expectations. Micron's current share price has already partially priced in these tailwinds; further gains will require the actual realization of HBM4 shipment volumes and gross margin data, rather than just relying on the 'order shift' narrative.

However, the primary benefits from the shift of HBM4E orders to TSMC will begin to materialize in 2027, while high-end AI memory supply for the Vera Rubin platform over the next two years is already dominated by SK Hynix and Samsung. Counterpoint expects Micron to hold only an 18% market share in 2026, implying that its catch-up progress in the high-end AI memory market may be limited before HBM4E reaches mass production.

In addition, the market is focusing on the U.S. April PCE inflation data to be released this Thursday; any reading exceeding expectations could weigh on technology sector valuations.

Overall, Micron has moved from being "excluded" back to "mass production" and shifted toward external foundries, leading to a recovery in market expectations. However, a time lag exists between the restoration of expectations and the realization of earnings. If smooth mass production of HBM4E and standard 1γ yields are confirmed for 2027, the $1,000 price target would have a realistic foundation.

In the short term, however, the reality of an 18% market share and potential PCE data volatility may cause the stock price to enter a period of consolidation after an initial rally. The market has already reacted to Micron "admitting errors and leveraging TSMC." Moving forward, the stock price will depend on actual performance rather than expectations.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.