US crude output to fall next decade on sub-$70 Brent price forecast, EIA says
NEW YORK/HOUSTON, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude production is expected to decline through the mid-2030s, with global crude futures trading below $70 per barrel through 2030, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Annual Energy Outlook on Wednesday.
The U.S. is expected to produce between 12.4 million and 12.7 million barrels per day of crude by 2050, compared with 13.6 million bpd produced in 2025, with the Permian Basin accounting for most onshore output. Production is expected to hit a peak of 13.62 million bpd next year.
Domestic producers are also set to contend with a dwindling supply of prime drilling acreage. As they run out of top-tier drilling locations that offer the best capital returns, companies will move into areas that are less economic to drill due to higher costs and lower recovery rates. Depending on price, those locations may become increasingly uneconomic, weighing on production.
Petroleum and other liquids consumption is estimated to decrease by 11%-23% in 2050 compared to 2025, mainly due to increased use of electric vehicles, the EIA said.
Brent crude futures will trade below $70 per barrel through 2030, leading to decreased U.S. crude production through the mid-2030s. Brent is currently trading around $95 due to the Iran war.
In the late 2030s, Brent crude prices are to rise above $75 per barrel, supporting a rise in crude production through most of the 2040s, though output is expected to fall again in 2050.
U.S. crude oil exports are projected to be between 3.3 million bpd and 4.7 million bpd, accounting for 25% to 33% of U.S. crude oil production in 2050, the EIA said.
U.S. oil demand is expected to average 20.5 million bpd in 2027, up 0.24% from 2026.
Global natural gas demand is expected to increase significantly and drive dry U.S. natural gas production to between 133 billion cubic feet per day and 151 Bcf/d by 2050, up from 107 Bcf/d in 2025.
Growth in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports and domestic consumption, particularly in the electric power and industrial sectors, will likely drive modest increases in prices through 2050, EIA said.
Spot gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana are expected to rise through the early 2030s and linger between $5 and $6 per million British thermal units, compared with the average price of $3.53 in 2025.
The report comes a day after the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, sending oil prices below $100 for the first time since April 2. The EIA did not account for the ceasefire in its projections.
