US natural gas futures fall over 4% as market stabilizes following prior gains

ReutersMar 4, 2026 3:24 PM

March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 4% on Wednesday as the market stabilized after hitting an over one-week-high in the previous session, while investors assessed Middle East supply risks amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 10.7 cents lower, or 3.5%, to $2.95 per million British thermal units at 09:50 a.m. ET. The contract hit its highest since February 23 in the previous session.

The U.S.–Iran war widened after a U.S. strike hit an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, deepening a crisis that has paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth day and choked off ‌vital Middle East oil and gas flows.

"Given today's early price weakness, the most likely course of trade through the rest of this week could be some price consolidation between about the $2.90 level on the downside and yesterday's high ... on the upside," Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

"Market has largely shrugged off the huge price advances across the oil complex as well as European gas prices that have responded much more assertively to the US/Iran war than in the US gas market."

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has held at 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

U.S. energy firms likely pulled 55 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage last week when warmer-than-normal weather kept heating demand low, according to the average estimate in a Reuters poll released on Wednesday. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.3 bcfd this week to 112.7 bcfd next week.

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants have eased to 18 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG), it said in a statement on Wednesday, after attacks on its production facilities amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Dutch and British gas prices were also lower on Wednesday morning, after soaring earlier this week, but could remain volatile as the market tries to gauge how long Qatari supply of LNG will remain disrupted. NG/EU

However, oil remained within sight of multi-month highs as the Middle East conflict disrupted energy flows, although prices pared gains after a report that Iranian operatives sought talks with the U.S. to end the conflict. O/R

	Week ended Feb 27 Forecast	Week ended Feb 20 Actual	Year ago Feb 27	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-125	-52	-106	-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,893	2,018	1,771	1,929
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.9%	-0.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.02	3.12	4.14	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	16.93	18.70	13.21	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	15.77	13.37	13.50	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	237	218	268	325	332
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	26	29	5	7	5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	263	247	273	332	337

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.2	109.6	109.7	106.3	99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.4	8.4	8.3	N/A	8.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.7	118.1	118.0	N/A	108.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	3.6	3.5	N/A	3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.5	6.5	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.7	18.2	18.4	15.6	13.2
U.S. Commercial	16.1	12.5	10.0	13.9	12.1
U.S. Residential	26.2	18.9	14.3	22.0	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	32.5	31.5	28.8	30.2	31.8
U.S. Industrial	25.3	24.1	23.4	24.8	24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.9	2.5	2.2	3.4	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	108.5	95.1	84.3	99.4	96.3
Total U.S. Demand	137.7	123.3	112.7	N/A	118.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	94	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	98	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Mar 6	Week ended Feb 27	2025	2024	2023
Wind	11	13	11	11	10
Solar	7	6	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	2	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	38	37	40	42	41
Coal	16	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.09	2.99	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.85	2.65	3.40	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.56	1.40	3.52	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.44	2.40	3.29	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.87	2.75	3.53	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.5	4.81	3.74	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.05	2.18	3.53	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SN	N/A	-2.78	0.78	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.74	1.17	1.47	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	47.9	65.00	50.19	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	42.59	54.33	48.35	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	10.87	13.61	34.51	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	15.75	12.75	23.31	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	6.54	6.86	16.63	28.44	53.02

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