FACTBOX-UBS raises 2026, Q1 Brent oil price outlook

March 4 (Reuters) - UBS raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $72 per barrel(/bbl)from $62/bbl, and lifted its first-quarter Brent estimate to $71/bbl from $60/bbl, citing the escalating Middle East conflict and the near de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

UBS said that any potential strikes on energy infrastructure such as on Qatar LNG could push Brent above $90 a barrel, depending on severity. While de-escalation could see a reversal in the risk premium, the bank said prices were unlikely to retreat to the pre-conflict level of $60/bbl.

Goldman Sachs GS.N expects the average 2026 Brent price to be at $71 per barrel, from $64/bbl previously, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate price at $67/bbl for the same period, versus $60 earlier.

The bank also raised its average Brent price forecast for the second quarter of 2026 by $10 to $76 per barrel, citing expectations that reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would draw down OECD inventories and curb Middle East production in March.

Major banks expect oil prices to remain elevated in the near term, weighing supply disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz amid the widening Middle East conflict.

indicates end-of-period forecasts

# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision

For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL