Oil seen elevated as Hormuz risks intensify amid Iran conflict, analysts say

March 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term as traders weigh the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for more than 20% of global oil supply, amid the widening Middle East conflict.

Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets have led to attacks across the Gulf, and Iranian state media reported an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp official as saying the waterway had been shut, warning that any vessel attempting to transit could come under attack.

• Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude oil by $10 to $76 per barrel and by $9 for WTI to $71. It also revised its Q4 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI to $66 and $62, respectively.

• UBS now expects Brent will average $71 per barrel in the first quarter, implying around $80 a barrel in March, and $72 per barrel in 2026 – $10 above its previous forecast.

• J.P. Morgan estimates that crude oil supply from Iraq and Kuwait will be shut down within days if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, projecting supply losses of up to 4.7 million barrels per day.

• ANZ raised its average Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel and LNG forecast to $17/mmBtu for the first quarter of 2026.

• Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday as the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, but the pace of gains slowed from past sessions after President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. O/R