Goldman Sachs Sees TTF, JKM Gas Prices to Average Below $5/mmbtu in 2028/29

Feb 5 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

• FORECASTS TTF AND JKM GAS PRICES TO AVERAGE BELOW $5/MMBTU IN 2028/29, MORE THAN 50% BELOW CURRENT PROMPT PRICES

• SAYS THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING LIQUEFACTION PROJECTS THAT DRIVE OUR BEARISH VIEW REMAINS KEY, AND WE TAKE STOCK OF HOW GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY GROWTH HAS EVOLVED VS OUR EXPECTATIONS

• SEES REALIZED 2025 AND FORECASTED 2026 LNG SUPPLY LARGELY IN LINE WITH OUR PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS, DESPITE THE RECENT US DISRUPTIONS AND RECENT DELAYS TO LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY STARTS

• EXPECTS 2025-TO-2030 GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY GROWTH (+193 MTPA, 45% OF 2025 GLOBAL SUPPLY) TO FAR EXCEED ASIA DEMAND GROWTH (+144 MTPA), EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT OUR ESTIMATED DEMAND RESPONSE TO LOW GAS PRICES

• EXPECTS THIS OVERSUPPLY TO TAKE EUROPEAN GAS STORAGE TO CONGESTION, PARTICULARLY IN 2028/29, LEAVING A TEMPORARY PRICE-DRIVEN CURTAILMENT OF US LNG EXPORTS AS THE LIKELY SOLVER OF THE IMBALANCE IN THAT PERIOD