Brief La Nina expected in fall 2025 before ENSO neutral returns, says US CPC

Aug 14 (Reuters) - A brief period of La Nina conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

The U.S. weather forecaster added that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely in the late Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025, with a 56% chance during August to October.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

La Nina is part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Nina results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

KEY QUOTES

"The ENSO neutral typically results in a drier central/southern U.S. Plains in winter, so this will likely affect the new winter wheat crop there," said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

"However, it is a bit more favorable for South America. This should result in increased plantings and favorable conditions, at least early in the season, for both central/northern Brazil and Argentina," he added.

CONTEXT

Meanwhile, Japan's weather bureau said this week that there was a 60% chance that the La Nina phenomenon would not occur and normal weather patterns would continue towards the Northern Hemisphere winter.