Amazon Stock: 4 Pillars Supporting a Buy Thesis in a Cautious Market

The fundamental story of AMZN today is simply that they are spending billions on fulfillment centers and data centers for AI, which is hurting near-term margins. However, with both AWS and advertising businesses in good growth, AMZN has generated enough cash flow to fund their current level of capital expansion. For example, AWS produced $30.9 billion of revenue in Q2 2023, up 17.5% compared to last year, while advertising revenue increased 23% year over year to reach $15.7 billion. Together, both of these business segments now generate most of the operating income for AMZN. Therefore, Amazon has ample operating room to make future investments while managing their overall financial discipline.

Even though they make up less than 20% of total revenue, AWS accounts for over 50% of Amazon's Operating Income for Q2 2021. AWS is also an excellent business size and margin wise, operating with a 33% operating margin. AWS is rare because it has both size and profitability margins. Even though Amazon is continuing to invest significantly in new AI services and logistics, AWS is still generating significant cash flow. The operating cash flow from AWS for the trailing 12 months is $121.1 billion, which gives great comfort to investors who are concerned about capital intensity because the segment that produces the majority of operating cash flow is also the one that has the largest growth.

In prior years, the only source of significant profit for Amazon was AWS, but that is quickly shifting as Advertising Services (primarily Sponsored Products) have grown 23% year over year and are outpacing revenue growth for the entire company. Advertising also has far higher margins than Retail Sales, so as it continues to grow, it will continue to boost overall profitability. Advertising is no longer considered a side business; instead, with quarterly revenue of $15.7 billion, it is a true competitor with traditional digital advertising outlets while utilizing its own closed-loop retail data.

When a company is in a heavy investment cycle, it is risky when it has a high degree of debt. This is certainly not true with Amazon. As of the end of Q2, Amazon had $93.1 billion in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities, versus $50.7 billion in long-term debt, giving the company a net cash position that can continue to finance AI infrastructure and logistics without stressing credit and without tapping into capital markets. Therefore, Amazon has financial flexibility, which is a strategic advantage to the company, particularly given the potential for worsening macroeconomic conditions.

Amazon's Prime Program is the glue that connects the various pieces of the Amazon ecosystem. Although Amazon no longer has a regular announcement of the number of Prime members, its subscription service revenue (which represents its Prime membership fees and digital content) increased by 12% from the prior year to $12.2 billion. The consistent growth of subscription services supports the notion that Amazon customers continue to perceive value from fast shipping, exclusive deals, and Prime Video. The result is a high frequency of customer engagement with Prime, which is creating third party seller activity and advertiser demand supporting the seller activity and the logistics systems of Amazon, which in turn support the appeal of Prime to customers and the continuing increase of Prime members.

There are risks and potential challenges to investing in Amazon's stock. A downturn in the economy may mean less demand for e-commerce, therefore fewer people will use their cloud services and less demand for advertising. Competition in the cloud market from other companies, such as Microsoft and Google, is at an all-time high and the digital advertising market is rapidly becoming more crowded. There is also a possibility that the massive capital investment in AI infrastructure may not generate return when originally forecast, and if either AWS or advertising recovers more slowly than expected, then the current share price may be too optimistic. Currently, share prices are approximately $35 P/E, which is higher than average over the last twenty years/market averages, but this is not excessive for two growing businesses with historically high margins.

The current price of Amazon shares may not be fully reflective of the value of the business and that means nothing can be concluded at this time as to if it would make sense to invest or not.

Does it make sense to be invested in Amazon for the next 3 -5 years while taking into consideration the profitability associated with AWS, advertising growth, clean balance sheet, and Prime member retention? If so, the company’s current P/E of 34 would likely appear to have been inexpensive down the road if those investments in AI pay off as expected. So, rather than waiting for perfect clarity regarding the potential for increased infrastructure spending, a prudent approach would be to build a position over time. Amazon represents an opportunity to have a single financially sound source for investment in cloud computing, AI, and digital advertising, and I believe that makes it an appropriate candidate for growth investors’ watch lists at this time.