ポスタル・リアルティ・トラスト（PSTL）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：AFFOガイダンスを引き上げ

ポスタル・リアルティ・トラスト（NYSE: PSTL）は、2026年度第3四半期決算において、1株当たりAFFO（調整後事業活動キャッシュフロー）の増加、四半期ベースで過去最高となる物件取得額、プロフォルマ・レバレッジの低下を発表した。内部賃料成長、物件取得による増益効果（アクリーション）、借入コストの改善を背景に、経営陣は通期のAFFOおよび物件取得ガイダンスを引き上げた。

要点

• 第3四半期の1株当たりAFFOは0.36ドルとなり、前年同期比で0.03ドル（9.1%）増加した。経営陣はこの増益の主因として内部成長と新規取得による増益効果を挙げた。
• 同社は当四半期中に加重平均キャッシュ・キャップレート6.9%で145物件を8,200万ドルで取得し、総面積38万8,000平方フィートを追加した。
• 通期の1株当たりAFFOガイダンスは0.01ドル引き上げられ、1.42〜1.44ドルとなった。中央値の1.43ドルは前年比8.3%の年間成長率を示す。
• ポスタル・リアルティは、2026年の物件取得ガイダンスを加重平均キャップレート7%台前半で1億8,500万〜2億ドルに引き上げた。年初9か月間の取得総額は約1億6,200万ドルとなった。
• ポートフォリオ稼働率は99.8%を維持し、過去実績のテナント維持率は99.6%となった。経営陣は2027年の既存物件ベース現金収入成長率ガイダンス6.5%を再確認した。
• 未決済の前渡し株式発行契約（フォワード株式契約）を含めたプロフォルマ純有利子負債／ランレート調整後EBITDA倍率は3.5倍に低下した。また、同社はフィッチから「BBB」の格付けを取得した。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

第3四半期の取得物件の内訳は、ラストマイル郵便局が101物件（計13万平方フィート）、多目的（フレックス）物件が44物件（計25万8,000平方フィート）であった。主な取得資産には、ニューヨーク州ブルックリン、ミネソタ州セントポール、コネチカット州グリニッジの物件が含まれる。

経営陣によると、同社の物件取得戦略は、初日からの増益効果（アクリーション）と、賃料の市場水準への見直し（マーク・トゥ・マーケット）機会、業務効率化、年3%の賃料エスカレーションによる内在的成長をターゲットとしている。2020年から2022年にかけて総合利回り（キャップレート）7.1%、総額3億7,000万ドル超で取得された物件群は、取得以降、キャッシュ利回りが約200ベーシスポイント上昇した。

第3四半期の物件取得による初日からの利回り上乗せ効果は約90ベーシスポイントであった。また経営陣は、取得後の利回りが200ベーシスポイント拡大した場合、5,000万ドルの追加取得ごとにNOIが100万ドル増加し得ると説明した。

リーシングの着実な実行は、引き続き内部成長の中核となっている。2026年満期のリース契約はすべて対応が完了しており、現在は米国郵便公社（USPS）との2027年満期契約の更新作業が進められている。既存の更新オプションの対象となるリースを除き、2027年の新規契約の大半は10年の契約期間と年3%のエスカレーション条項が設定される見通しである。

四半期末時点で、リースの60%に年次賃料エスカレーション条項が含まれ、55%が10年契約となっており、2027年までに締結・合意された契約を含む加重平均残存リース期間は6.4年となった。

ポスタル・リアルティは当四半期中および期末後にATMプログラムを通じて1億1,700万ドルを調達し、うち純受取額8,300万ドルが未決済となっている。また、物件取得のために700万ドルのOPユニット（営業パートナーシップ持分）を発行した。未決済のフォワード契約を含めた総流動性は3億4,000万ドルを超えた。

経営陣のガイダンス

経営陣は、物件取得額の増加と借入コストの改善を挙げ、2026年の1株当たりAFFOガイダンスを1.42〜1.44ドルに引き上げた。第4四半期の経常的資本的支出は25万〜35万ドルを見込んでいる。

2026年通期の現金ベース一般管理費は、従来の1,150万〜1,250万ドルのレンジ中央値か、それをやや下回る水準で着地する見通しである。信用格付け、融資枠再編、および物件取得に関連した第3四半期の費用約25万ドルは、第4四半期には発生しない見込みである。

同社は、2026年の既存物件ベース現金NOI成長率が6%〜7%のレンジ中央値に達すると予想しており、2027年の同現金収入成長率6.5%の見通しを再確認した。

経営陣は、今後の物件取得活動について、パイプラインの整合性、資金調達の機会、および資本コストに左右されると述べた。現在の資本コストは6%台半ばであり、資金調達環境が維持されれば、既存のパイプラインにおいて初日から有意な増益効果が見込めるとみている。

リスクと注視点

• 経営陣は、第4四半期の物件取得の時期と規模に関する不確実性の要因として、資本市場のボラティリティを挙げた。
• 物件取得のリターンは、市場水準への賃料見直し、業務効率化、契約上のエスカレーター条項の実行にかかっている。各資産によってリースのロールオーバーの時期や現行賃料と市場賃料との乖離の程度は異なる。
• 金利変動リスクへのエクスポージャーも引き続き注視されている。同社は10月、近く予定されている負債取引に伴うリスクを軽減するため、2,000万ドルのフォーワード・スタート・スワップを購入した。
• アナリストが米国郵便公社（USPS）の四半期赤字と深刻な流動性危機への警告を指摘した。これに対し経営陣は、リース交渉に変化はなく、郵便ネットワーク全体のリース費用はUSPSの営業費用のわずか1.5%を占めるにすぎないと指摘した。
• USPSによる不動産売却は取得機会を生み出す可能性があるものの、同公社が主要テナントとして留まる予定の物件について、これまで積極的にセール・アンド・リースバックを行ってきた経緯はないと経営陣は述べた。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

取得利回りと内在的成長：経営陣は、資産がより大きな内在的成長とより強固な安定利回りをもたらす場合、低キャップレートでの取得も正当化され得ると述べた。ただし、各案件の審査は個別に行われる。

案件ソーシング：案件フローの約75%がオフマーケット（相対取引）である。経営陣によると、売り手の多くは何十年も物件を所有しており、特定のキャップレートや利回り目標ではなく、ライフイベントや資産承継、流動性ニーズを動機として売却しているという。

AIと営業レバレッジ：ポスタル・リアルティは、データ収集、検証、デューデリジェンス、取得ワークフローにAIを活用している。経営陣は、これらのツールの導入により、人員を増やすことなく、四半期の通常の約2倍に達する物件取得規模を完了させることができたと述べた。

配当方針：取締役会は、バランスシートの健全性を維持し再投資用の現金を確保するため、配当性向を約70%以下に設定している。経営陣は、キャッシュフローの持続的な成長とREITの分配金要件により、時間の経過とともに増配圧力が生じる可能性があると述べた。

USPSの資産売却：経営陣は、USPSが売却を進めた場合にはポスタル・リアルティとして所有物件を取得する準備があるとしつつも、現時点でそのような計画が進められている兆候はないと述べた。

決算説明会の全編書き起こし

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Postal Realty Trust Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Jordan Cooperstein, Senior Vice President of Finance and Capital Markets. Welcome, Jordan.

Jordan Cooperstein

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call today, we have Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer; Steve Bakke, Chief Financial Officer; Jeremy Garber, President; and Matt Brandwein, Chief Accounting Officer.

Please note the company may use forward-looking statements on this conference call, which are statements that are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking. These forward-looking statements are intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements and will be affected by a variety of risks and factors that are beyond the company's control, including, but not limited to, those contained in the company's latest 10-K and 10-Q and its other regulatory filings with the SEC. The company does not assume and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Additionally, on this conference call, the company may refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operating measures such as funds from operations, adjusted funds from operations, adjusted EBITDA, annualized adjusted EBITDA, run rate adjusted EBITDA, net debt, pro forma net debt, occupancy, net operating income, same-store cash NOI and same-store cash revenue. You can find definitions and, to the extent available, tabular reconciliations of these and other non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the company's earnings release and supplemental materials available on the company's Investor Relations website.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer of Postal Realty Trust.

Andrew Spodek

Thank you, Jordan, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today.

The third quarter marked another strong period of execution for Postal Realty. We delivered 9.1% AFFO per share growth compared to the same quarter last year and raised our guidance for the third time this year to a midpoint of $1.43 per share. We acquired $82 million of postal properties and are increasing our guidance to $185 million to $200 million at a low 7% weighted average cap rate for 2026. And we accomplished all of this while bringing leverage down to 3.5x pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA and achieving a BBB rating from Fitch.

To recap our acquisition strategy, we target properties that are day 1 accretive with embedded growth potential. We underwrite not just with the next quarter or year in mind, but looking multiple years to the future. The internal growth opportunity distinguishes us. I want to share a few figures that illustrate what this looks like. We acquired over 800 properties from 2020 to 2022, totaling north of $370 million at a blended cap rate of 7.1%. Since we've owned these properties, we have driven the cash yield approximately 200 basis points higher than where we acquired the properties by marking leases to market, creating operating efficiencies and adding 3% annual escalators in new leases. Every acquisition is different. The timing of lease rolls and the gap between current and market rents will vary. But across this large sample size, the results clearly show the NOI growth that the machine we've built has delivered.

On past earnings calls, we have stated that a better cost of capital will allow us to pursue a broader universe of properties with strong growth potential. Our third quarter results are an excellent illustration of what we can achieve with improved access to well-priced capital. We invested in high-quality postal real estate portfolios and individual assets in a wide range of markets from small towns to larger cities. Notable locations this quarter include a 33,000-square-foot property in Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, 25,000 square feet at a facility in St. Paul, Minnesota, and a 2.8-acre property in the Central Business District of Greenwich, Connecticut. Our blended cash cap rate for the quarter was 6.9%, a healthy spread to our cost of capital, and we are excited about the NOI growth we expect to achieve.

Cost of capital dictates the opportunities we pursue. This discipline is reflected in the wider acquisition guidance range this quarter, and it is in line with our history of being highly responsive to the capital markets environment. I've never been more confident in our ability to deliver continued earnings growth given our robust acquisition pipeline, over $340 million of liquidity, including unsettled forwards, and the cost of capital we can deploy accretively.

With that, I will turn it over to Steve.

Steve Bakke

Thank you, Andrew. We've talked in prior quarters about our AFFO growth building blocks. And today, each of those building blocks is contributing meaningfully. First, we are retaining more cash after dividend payments than ever before as a public company, which we are utilizing to either pay down debt or acquire properties. Second, the day 1 accretion we generate from external growth is substantial, coming in at approximately 90 basis points in the third quarter. Lastly, same-store NOI growth is healthy, and we are on track to achieve the midpoint of our 6% to 7% same-store cash NOI growth guidance this year.

In the third quarter, we drove a higher acquisition volume at a slightly lower blended cap rate because of the substantial earnings growth we can derive from feeding our machine. For illustrative purposes, each $50 million of incremental acquisition volume adds $1 million of net operating income in a scenario where we expand acquisition yield by an additional 200 basis points after purchase.

Shifting to third quarter results. Yesterday, we reported AFFO per share of $0.36. This is in line with the second quarter due predominantly to operating expense seasonality and one-time expenses in the quarter. It is a $0.03 per share increase from the same quarter last year as we benefited from predominantly internal growth and acquisition accretion. Note that in last year's third quarter, we earned approximately $0.05 more from one-time lump sum payments.

Turning to our balance sheet. This quarter, we further fortified our capital position even while closing on a record volume of acquisitions. During and subsequent to the quarter, we raised $117 million via the ATM, of which $83 million of net proceeds remain unsettled. Additionally, we issued $7 million of OP units as part of property acquisitions. We added a summary of equity raising activity thus far this year on Page 9 of our supplemental.

As discussed last quarter, we recast and expanded our credit facility in July. As part of the recast, in addition to increasing our capacity by $60 million, we added an investment-grade pricing grid that offers more favorable pricing upon achievement of an investment-grade rating, which we secured in August.

Looking at our balance sheet structure, after equity settled in the third quarter, our net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA stood at 4.4x. Inclusive of unsettled forward equity raised through October, pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA was 3.5x. Even with no significant debt maturities until 2028, we remain focused on adding duration and further staggering our maturities to buttress our financial position. Combined with the U.S. Postal Service's strong tenancy, this gives us significant strategic optionality. Lastly, on the balance sheet front, in late October, we purchased $20 million of forward-starting swaps to begin proactively derisking a portion of our interest rate exposure related to an upcoming debt transaction.

Now on guidance. We are raising our AFFO per share range by $0.01 to $1.42 to $1.44 per share, representing 8.3% growth at the midpoint for the year. The increase is driven by higher acquisition volume and improved borrowing costs. Underlying assumptions include fourth quarter recurring capital expenditures in the range of $250,000 to $350,000. Full year 2026 cash G&A expense is expected to land at or slightly below the midpoint of our $11.5 million to $12.5 million guidance range. Note that in the third quarter, G&A included approximately $250,000 of expenses related to our credit rating, credit facility recast and acquisitions, which won't repeat in the fourth quarter.

Scaling relative to our G&A is one of our top priorities as a company. Our G&A ratio has improved each year since our IPO. And looking forward, we are excited about opportunities to empower the existing team here to cover more ground by applying AI and process automation tools across a variety of accounting, acquisition and operations workflows.

Lastly, our Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.245 per share, representing a 1% increase from last year. Our dividend payout ratio for the third quarter is approximately 68%, and our dividend yield as of yesterday was 4.5%.

With that, I will turn it over to Jeremy.

Jeremy Garber

Thank you, Steve. The third quarter was another quarter of strong operating results. Our portfolio remained 99.8% occupied, and our historical lease retention rate held at 99.6%, a reflection of the stable, predictable cash flows our business generates.

Our leasing activity this quarter further reinforces that stability. With 2026 leases behind us, execution of the 2027 leases with the Postal Service is underway. As I noted last quarter, as in prior years, 2027 new leases will include 3% annual rent escalations and the vast majority will have 10-year terms, excluding leases subject to existing renewal options. Finally, we are in conversation with the Postal Service on 2028 expirations, keeping us on track toward achieving our shared goal of fully executing new leases before the current leases expire.

With this quarter's leasing progress, 60% of our leases include annual rent escalations, 55% of leases contain 10-year terms, and our weighted average lease term stood at 6.4 years at quarter end, inclusive of executed and agreed-upon leases through 2027. Given our visibility into upcoming lease renewals, we are reaffirming our 2027 same-store cash revenue growth of 6.5%.

Now to acquisitions. During the quarter, we acquired 145 properties for $82 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 6.9%, expanding our footprint by 388,000 square feet. By property type, that included 130,000 square feet from 101 last-mile post offices and 258,000 square feet from 44 flex properties. Through the first 9 months of the year, we acquired 243 properties for approximately $162 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 7.1%.

With that, we'll end our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

質疑応答

John Kim

On the acquisitions you made this quarter at 6.9% yield, how much of that was driven by the assets you acquired in Greenwich and Brooklyn? And can you talk about the upside potential that you see, maybe provide a stabilized yield once you get the mark-to-market and the change in escalators?

Andrew Spodek

Thanks for the question, John. So, the cap rate for this quarter was driven not just by the properties that we highlighted in the script, but some other properties that we believe have real embedded growth over the next couple of years. What we illustrated for the first time is that we're trying to show people what the results of not just the day 1 accretion and not just the efficiencies and synergies we're getting from operating, but also what we're gaining from marking these leases to market and getting those 3% escalators. And we're hopeful that what we've been able to do in the past, we'll be able to do in the future.

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank.

Greg McGinniss

The revised acquisition guidance implies just around $30 million of acquisitions in Q4 following a record Q3. Given your liquidity, is this conservatism, lumpy transaction timing or just reflective of the change in your current cost of capital? And then how should we kind of think about that going forward into 2027 as well?

Andrew Spodek

So, Greg, I appreciate the question. It's a combination of all those things and more. From what we've tried to illustrate to everybody over the years and what we've actually been showing is that our cost and our access to capital needs to tie out with our pipeline. And when all those 3 things align, then we're able to achieve what we're able to do this past quarter. Our conservatism or our estimate, which is a wider range of our acquisitions for Q4, is based on not knowing what all those things are going to tie out to for the fourth quarter, especially given the volatility in the market today. And so as we are able to access a good cost of capital and as we're able to buy properties that we believe not just have day 1 accretion, but have some embedded growth, we'll be able to execute on that, and we hope and plan to continue to do so.

Steve Bakke

And, Greg, this is Steve. Just adding to Andrew's point, with our cost of capital today in the mid-6% range, we're fortunate to have a healthy amount of day 1 accretion based on the pipeline of acquisitions we see today. So if our cost of capital holds, we can lean into that, as Andrew mentioned.

Greg McGinniss

And can I follow up on those lower-cap acquisitions from this quarter? Am I hearing you right that you're saying you think there's more internal growth for those lower-cap acquisitions than what you have been acquiring in the 7.1%, 7.2% range? And even -- and I think like the illustrative example in the presentation, which basically saying even if it was the same, greater acquisition volume does lead to greater growth. But curious if you're actually seeing more growth from the lower-cap assets.

Andrew Spodek

So that's a very good question. We look at and acquire a wide range of assets throughout this entire country. And so each asset and each acquisition really speaks for itself. When we see greater embedded growth or greater potential for that embedded growth, then we're able to buy things at a lower cap rate because we see that what the stabilized yield is going to achieve. But every deal really has to speak for itself. And we believe that the acquisitions we bought this quarter are really going to achieve the growth that we are really trying to accomplish.

Operator

Our next question comes from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan Chase.

Nahom Tesfazghi

You have Nahom on for Tony this morning. Maybe on the portfolio you guys purchased outside of the ROFO. I guess since Postal already manage these properties, how should we think about the embedded mark-to-market or lease term upside compared to traditional assets that you guys buy that you'll bring into your system and you get some expansion on?

Jeremy Garber

Yes. I mean this is a great example of long-term relationships and life events and how those play into our acquisition strategy. So this is a partner that I've been chasing for over 10 years, and made annual visits to them, and he experienced a life event in the past year and came to us and we moved forward with our acquisition team on underwriting these assets. These are great assets, assets we know, very typical of the type of assets we buy, growth profile very similar. There are some assets here in this portfolio that have experienced our new lease form because, as managers of these assets, they get the benefit of the proprietary lease that we have. But yes, this was modeled the way every other acquisition is modeled. As Andrew described, we're trying to achieve day 1 accretion and acquire assets that have embedded growth.

Nahom Tesfazghi

Got it. And maybe as a follow-up, sticking on the transaction market: I think on prior calls, you guys have mentioned that mom-and-pop sellers in the market aren't necessarily solving for a cap rate or an IRR. Could you walk us through maybe what they are actually optimizing for and how that maybe shapes your approach to sourcing and pricing?

Andrew Spodek

It's really a very difficult thing to answer, just given the amount of volume of not just deals, but owners and sellers that we're dealing with, talking to and transacting with on a daily basis. And it doesn't necessarily have to be a significant theme amongst them. If I had to give you some commonality, it is something along the lines of what Jeremy is saying, which is the average owner is in their 60s to 80s. The average owner owned their building more than 50 years. And so life events or the thought of life events or estate planning or liquidity or things like that, that that people consider at that stage of life is probably most of the larger percentage of transactions that come to us.

But you also have to understand that 75% of our deal flow is actually off-market. And so these are people that we've been talking to over long periods of time, like Jeremy was doing or like the transaction in Greenwich. I've been working on that deal for probably 30 years. The Brooklyn transaction is not an owner that I was dealing with for a long time, but came through a relationship, right? These are off-market deals that people are not really explaining to you specifically why they're transacting. But if I had to put a theme on it, I would say life events and age.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Roberts with Jefferies.

Matthew Roberts

This is Matt on for John. Curious to hear more on AI usage of the company, especially with regards to acquisitions. And then second, how is the company thinking about future dividend growth now that AFFO growth has accelerated?

Steve Bakke

Great question. This is Steve. As it relates to AI, there are a lot of ways that we're deploying it across the platform. What we found so far is rather than any grand solutions, we can plug AI into existing processes and increase efficiency and allow the team to take on more. As it relates to acquisitions, we have a variety of due diligence items and checklists that we put together where we're gathering data, vetting data, checking data, and AI can help increase the speed and efficiency with which we do that, and help us, like the current quarter, acquire almost double the typical quarter without adding any additional personnel.

As it relates to the dividend, I'll start by saying it's a Board decision, but there are a few overlays that we look at the dividend recommendation through. The first is our capital strength and the credit we get with various constituents on the lending side for having a low payout ratio. 70% or lower feels to us like an appropriate number to keep a strong financial position. The second piece is the retained cash flow. By retaining more cash flow and reinvesting in the business, while the dividend is lower today, the deployment of that cash flow can accelerate our AFFO growth and ultimately lead, we believe, to higher dividends in the future.

So that's really what excites and motivates us is that long-term growth. And the last piece on the dividend is maintaining our REIT compliance. So we have to pay out 90% of our net income. As we have grown our cash flows, we've gotten closer and closer to that point where we are paying out close to the minimum that we can pay out to maintain REIT compliance. So I think that will be an upward pressure on our dividend over time to the extent our cash flow continues to grow.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim

Looking at the USPS's latest quarterly results, they had a 6% increase in revenue, but another quarter of losses, $2.5 billion this quarter, and the Postmaster General warned of a severe liquidity crisis, which I know they've used that language or similar language in the past. But I guess my question as it relates to Postal, have negotiations changed at all because of their situation? And do you think the USPS is more likely to sell assets within its own portfolio to the market to help address this?

Andrew Spodek

I appreciate the question. I guess there are a couple of questions within your questions. So negotiations, number one, have not changed. Number two is we have to keep in mind that, like we said before, the leasing of the entire postal network is only 1.5% of the Postal Service's operating expenses. And it is the backbone of their entire delivery and operational business, what they need to deliver to the 170 million delivery points that they do 6 to 7 days a week. That is their business, and that is what they do, and they need these buildings in order to accomplish that.

In terms of them selling assets, I'm obviously biased, but I would argue you're right and that they should sell their assets. I can't tell you that they're actually going to do it or this is going to motivate them. But if it does, we are sitting here ready, willing and able to buy them. So I guess time will tell. But I think the Postal Service is actually more focused on the operations and trying to serve the American people the way that they always have.

John Kim

Can you remind USPS typically sell annually?

Andrew Spodek

I'm sorry, you broke up. I didn't hear that. Can you say that again?

John Kim

Can you remind us their track record of dispositions or selling assets?

Andrew Spodek

So they don't really have much of a track record. In the past, they did sell properties that -- and they did do a sale-leaseback on a portion of the property, but they didn't typically dispose of properties that they wanted to maintain a tenancy in a significant portion of the property. This is not something that they historically did on a proactive basis.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Andrew Spodek for closing comments.

Andrew Spodek

We've made tremendous progress year-to-date, growing this highly scalable platform, backed by a growing rent stream from a tenant who pays 100% of the rent, 100% of the time. I've never been more confident in our ability to consolidate the postal real estate market, given our access to capital, robust pipeline and the strength of our team. We look forward to meeting at upcoming conferences and updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you again for joining us today.

Operator

We've reached the end of today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.