GATX 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：EPS上昇、ガイダンスは10.30ドル超に上方修正

主要なポイント

• GATXが発表した2026年第3四半期の希薄化後EPSは2.92ドルとなり、2025年第3四半期の2.25ドルから上昇した。最初の9か月間の希薄化後EPSは、前年同期の6.46ドルから8.11ドルに増加した。
• 経営陣は現在、税金調整やその他の項目を除く2026年通期のEPSが、従来の予想レンジである9.90ドル〜10.30ドルの上限をわずかに上回ると予想している。
• 北米鉄道（Rail North America）部門の稼働率は98.4%に上昇した。契約更新成功率は86.1%となり、リース価格指数（Lease Price Index）は平均更新期間52か月でプラス12.4%の改定率を記録した。
• 北米鉄道部門は第3四半期に5,030万ドル、年初来で1億6,780万ドルの純資産売却益を計上した。経営陣は通期の売却益が当初目標の2億ドルをわずかに上回ると見込んでいる。
• ウェルズ・ファーゴ（Wells Fargo）の鉄道資産統合は計画通りに進展している。関連する買収および管理活動は年初来で希薄化後1株当たり約0.50ドルの貢献となっており、GATXは当初の予想（0.20〜0.30ドル）の約2倍を達成する見込みである。
• GATXは当四半期中に約44万2,000株を7,850万ドルで自社株買いした。年初来の自社株買いは73万2,000株（約1億3,000万ドル）を超えた。

主要財務データ

2025年第3四半期および9か月累計の実績には、税金調整やその他の項目による希薄化後1株当たり0.15ドルのプラスの影響が含まれている。

事業および業績ハイライト

北米鉄道部門

需給ダイナミクスと既存保有車両資産に対する堅調な需要に支えられ、市場環境は引き続き良好であった。旧ウェルズ・ファーゴのポートフォリオからの休止車両の配置成功も手伝い、保有車両の稼働率は98.4%に上昇した。砂市場向けの小型有蓋ホッパ車は、引き続き稼働率の重荷となった。

更新成功率は86.1%に達した。リース価格指数（LPI）は平均更新期間52か月でプラス12.4%の改定率を示した。報告されたLPIは旧ウェルズ・ファーゴの車両、ポートフォリオ構成、砂関連車両の組み入れによる影響を受けたものの、経営陣は大部分の車両ポートフォリオにおいて前期比価格設定が横ばいからやや上昇傾向にあると述べた。

GATXは2022年のトリニティ（Trinity）供給契約に基づき、約10,300両の鉄道車両を配置した。納入予定の最も早い枠は2027年第2四半期となっている。

セカンダリー市場の需要は引き続き堅調であった。経営陣は、主に他のリース会社を中心とする約25〜30機関の広範な買い手層が存在すると説明した。GATXは、北米鉄道部門の資産売却益が当初の通期目標である2億ドルをわずかに上回ると予想している。

また、同社はブルックフィールド（Brookfield）が完全所有する長期リースポートフォリオからの資産売却に伴う管理手数料の増加からも利益を得た。これらの手数料は、第1四半期および第2四半期のそれぞれ約280万ドルから、第3四半期には約1,500万ドル近くに増加した。売却時期や対象資産の選定に関する最終決定権はブルックフィールドが保持している。

総メンテナンス費用の年換算額は約5億200万〜5億300万ドルとなり、同社が予想していた通期約5億ドルとおむね一致した。現在のコスト削減は主に外部受託メンテナンスの管理改善によるものである。GATXはジョイントベンチャーのメンテナンスを自社施設にまだ取り込んでいないが、2027年中には段階的な内製化を開始し、その後徐々に拡大する準備を進めている。

国際鉄道部門

GATX Rail Europeの稼働率は四半期末時点で96.1%に改善し、複数の車両タイプで更新リース料が上昇した。前年同期比の業績も、DBカーゴ（DB Cargo）買収後の車両増加と好都合な為替効果の恩恵を受けた。

インドにおいて、GATXはフル稼働率を維持しながら車両を拡大した。欧州チームは厳しい経済環境下で操業しているものの、経営陣は国際鉄道部門全体で引き続き投資と成長の機会を見出している。

エンジンリース部門

世界的な航空旅行需要の活発化が稼働率とリース料を後押しし、エンジンリース部門は力強い業績を達成した。RRPFジョイントベンチャーにおける投資額は年初来で10億ドル近くに達した。

RRPFの収益は引き続き資産売却による変動の影響を受けた。経営陣は、第3四半期および年初来期間の双方において、収益構成が営業利益約3分の2、リマーケティング（再販売）収入約3分の1であったと述べた。

経営陣は、エンジンリース部門の業績が年初の見通しを上回ると予想している。この改善は主に、RRPFジョイントベンチャーではなく、第2四半期に計上されたメンテナンス準備金の実現を含むGATX完全所有のエンジンポートフォリオに起因している。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

GATXは現在、2026年の希薄化後EPSが従来の予想レンジである9.90ドル〜10.30ドルの上限をわずかに上回ると予想している。この見通しには税金調整やその他の項目は含まれていない。

経営陣は、予想引き上げの主な要因として、鉄道車両のセカンダリー市場の持続的な堅調さと、ブルックフィールドの長期リースポートフォリオ管理手数料が予想を上回ったことを挙げた。両要因とも取引のタイミングに依存し四半期ごとに偏りが生じる可能性があるため、10.30ドルを超過する具体額の明示は避けた。

同社は、ウェルズ・ファーゴの鉄道資産に関連する買収・投資および管理活動が、当初のEPS予想額（0.20〜0.30ドル）の約2倍の貢献をもたらすと見込んでいる。最初の9か月間での貢献額は希薄化後1株当たり約0.50ドルであった。

リスクおよび注視すべき点

• 鉄道車両の売却益およびブルックフィールドからの管理手数料は取引依存型であり、買い手の資金計画、売買完了スケジュール、ブルックフィールドの売却決定に応じて変動する可能性がある。
• 砂市場向けの小型有蓋ホッパ車は、引き続き稼働率および価格設定の逆風となっている。
• 欧州鉄道（Rail Europe）部門は引き続き厳しい経済環境に直面している。
• タンク車の関税環境は流動的である。経営陣は、現在貨車は関税の対象ではないものの、タンク車に関税が課される可能性があり新造設備コストを押し上げる可能性があると述べた。
• GATXの負債の中で変動金利の割合は10%未満である。同社は主に長期の固定金利資金調達を利用しているため、短期的な金利変動は重大な経営影響要因ではないと経営陣は説明した。長期的には、資金調達コストの上昇とリース料は相関すると予想されている。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

リース価格指数：経営陣によると、12.4%のLPIは旧ウェルズ・ファーゴの車両の段階的な組み入れ、ポートフォリオ構成、砂関連車両の継続的な影響を反映している。効果は時間をかけて蓄積されるものの、約24億ドルの売上高ベースに対して、LPIが12%の場合と17%の場合の年間売上高の差額は500万ドル未満と推計されている。

セカンダリー市場の需要：GATXは引き続き堅調な流動性を確認しており、他の鉄道車両リース会社が主な買い手グループとなっている。経営陣は、より大規模なマクロ経済の混乱がない限り、機会領域がすぐに弱まるとは予想していない。

ウェルズ・ファーゴの統合：買収した営業車両は、別事業としてではなくGATXの従来型ポートフォリオとともに一体管理されている。短期的なメンテナンス面のメリットは外部ベンダー管理の改善によるものであり、限定的な内製メンテナンス作業は2027年に開始される可能性がある。

資本配分：経営陣は、収益拡大につながる投資が引き続き最優先事項であり、次いでレバレッジと投資適格格付けの指標維持であると改めて表明した。余剰資本は配当や、適切な場合には自社株買いを通じて株主に還元される。

天然ガスおよびLNG貨車：経営陣は、天然ガスは主にパイプラインで輸送されており、LNG貨車は依然として稀少で高価であると述べた。この市場からの将来の収益貢献は投機的なものとみなされている。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the GATX 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Shari Hellerman, Head of Investor Relations. Shari, please go ahead.

Shari Hellerman

Thank you, Holly. Good morning, and thank you for joining GATX's 2026 third quarter earnings call.

I'm joined today by Bob Lyons, President and Chief Executive Officer; Tom Ellman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Paul Titterton, Executive Vice President and President of Rail North America.

As a reminder, some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of forward-looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from those statements or forecasts. For more information, please refer to the risk factors included in our earnings release and those discussed in GATX's Form 10-K for 2025 and our other filings with the SEC.

GATX assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Earlier today, GATX reported 2026 third quarter diluted earnings per share of $2.92 compared to $2.25 in the third quarter of 2025. For the first 9 months of 2026, GATX delivered diluted earnings per share of $8.11 compared to $6.46 for the same period in 2025. The 2025 third quarter and year-to-date results include a net positive impact of $0.15 per diluted share from tax adjustments and other items. These items are detailed in the supplemental information section of our earnings release.

I'll briefly address each of our business segments. After that, we'll open the call up for questions. At Rail North America, market conditions remain positive. Leasing fundamentals benefited from a favorable supply-demand environment and strong interest in existing fleet assets. These conditions continue to support attractive renewal economics and secondary market opportunities across the fleet.

The renewal success rate was strong at 86.1% and fleet utilization increased to 98.4% at quarter end. The renewal rate change of GATX's Lease Price Index was positive 12.4% with an average renewal term of 52 months. We continue to successfully place new railcars under our committed supply agreement with a diverse customer base. We've placed about 10,300 railcars under our 2022 Trinity supply agreement.

Our earliest available scheduled delivery under this agreement is in the second quarter of 2027. Demand for our railcars in the secondary market remained exceptionally strong during the quarter. Net gains on asset dispositions in Rail North America were $50.3 million in the quarter and $167.8 million year-to-date.

Additionally, we continue to realize benefits from the acquisition of Wells Fargo's rail assets. Integration efforts have progressed well, and we are leveraging GATX's scale, customer relationships and portfolio management capabilities across the larger fleet. We also benefited from higher management fee income during the quarter, driven in part by asset sale activity within the Brookfield-owned portfolio.

Turning to Rail International. Performance was solid in the quarter. GATX Rail Europe's fleet utilization improved to 96.1% at quarter end, and we continued pushing up renewal lease rates for various car types. In India, we further expanded the fleet during the quarter while maintaining full utilization. Across Rail International, we continue to see attractive opportunities for investment and growth. Engine Leasing delivered excellent results during the quarter.

Portfolio performance remains strong as healthy global air travel activity continue to support high utilization and attractive lease rates. At RRPF, we continue to deploy capital into attractive opportunities with investment volume at the joint venture approaching $1 billion year-to-date. During the quarter, GATX repurchased approximately 442,000 shares for $78.5 million.

Year-to-date, we've repurchased more than 732,000 shares for approximately $130 million. Finally, we now expect 2026 full year earnings to modestly exceed the upper end of our previously announced guidance range of $9.90 to $10.30 per diluted share. This guidance excludes any impact from tax adjustments and other items.

And that concludes our prepared remarks. I'll hand it back to the operator so we can open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ben Mohr with Citi.

質疑応答

Benjamin Mohr Mok

I wanted just to maybe start off asking about the LPI. It looks like it's softer than expected at the 12.4%. You've not yet lapped the 2Q hopper impact and yet it stepped down from 2Q. So just wanted to see if that was the only driver or if there were other drivers on top of the 2Q hopper impact that won't get lapped until 2Q of next year. And your full year LPI target, I think to date has been the lower end of your previously guided high teens to low teens range for '26. So just wanted to see your outlook on that as well, please.

Paul Titterton

Ben, this is Paul speaking. Happy to answer that question. I think Bob will probably chime in as well. But broadly speaking, I think it's important to understand with our LPI, it's done on a trailing 12-month basis. And so one thing that's happening over the course of this year is each successive quarter is incorporating another quarter of GABX. So by the end of this year, we'll have GABX fully incorporated. I should say, the former Wells Fargo fleet, which is known as GABX.

But as well, I would say you have that going on, you have mix and then you do have the continued impact of the sand cars. So really, all 3 of those things are impacting the LPI. I will say broadly, when we think about sequential pricing in the fleet, we are actually seeing across most of the fleet flat to slightly up sequential pricing. So certainly, the pricing climate for our fleet overall is, I would say, becoming increasingly favorable, although the LPI, as you pointed out, has been lower for the reasons I just described.

Robert Lyons

Ben, it's Bob. Thank you for the question. And I just wanted to add regarding the LPI, just doing a little back-of-the-envelope math, the difference between, call it, a 12% LPI and a 17% LPI in a given year is less than $5 million of revenue on an annual basis, and that's off our revenue base of about $2.4 billion. So when you really kind of pencil out the impact of the LPI, the variance in any given year, it's -- the impact on our revenue line is de minimis. Now obviously, that accumulates over time and gives you a different answer. But in the present year or in '27, for example, it's not that material.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Great. My next question then is on the -- what you've mentioned, the higher management fee in the quarter on the higher asset sale activity in the Brookfield-owned portfolio for Rail North America. And it looks like that's tied to North America remarketing that's also been very strong in 3Q. So maybe sort of a multipoint question. Are you still holding your $200 million target for Rail North America remarketing for '26? And if so, should we expect kind of the positive lumpiness in 3Q to step down to a meaningful step down in 4Q and then that should drive a lower management fee, sort of your other revenue in Rail North America for 4Q as well?

Thomas Ellman

Yes, Ben. So I'll try to take both parts of those questions. One, you alluded to it in your question, but just so that everyone is totally clear, GATX earns 2 different types of management fees related to the Wells Fargo Rail transaction. First, we earn a fee, and this is what you were referring to, for managing the long-term lease portfolio, which is wholly owned by Brookfield.

Second, we earn a fee for managing the operating lease portfolio joint venture with Brookfield. And today, we own 33.5% of that JV. So as you noted, the first fee is what's up sequentially this quarter. So for the first 2 quarters, we earned about $2.8 million in fees in each quarter. And this quarter, it was almost $15 million, so a meaningful increase. And that increase was driven by the fact that under certain conditions, GATX earns additional fees for asset sales out of that portfolio.

Now of course, the decision on whether -- what to sell and when to sell are ultimately made by Brookfield, but GATX gets paid a fee for making recommendations and executing on those sales. So that's part of the increase. Related, but separately, in our own business, the secondary market continues to be strong. And we do expect to exceed slightly the $200 million that we mentioned at the beginning of the year for asset dispositions. As we've discussed many times, calling the exact timing on when those sales close is challenging, but we certainly do expect directionally to do a bit better than we originally anticipated.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Wonderful. My last question is looking out longer term, there's been some investor interest on a longer-term growing narrative for nat gas for data centers where behind-the-meter prime power generators would be driven more by nat gas turbines or reciprocating engines fueled by nat gas, given there's not enough grid to go around for all the data center build. I wanted to ask you, from your view, how much of this could be an opportunity for you? Are your tank cars suited to moving this expansion in nat gas presumably as LNG?

Paul Titterton

Yes. So this is Paul speaking, Ben. It's a good question. So for the most part, nat gas moves by pipeline in North America and really throughout the world. LNG tank cars are today quite rare and are extraordinarily expensive to construct. There are certainly folks talking about LNG by rail, but that's not a market in which we play today, and it's not clear under what conditions we might play. So I would say any contribution to our business from that would be speculative at this point.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrzej Tomczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Just curious to start off on the guide for modestly exceeding the top end of the $9.90 to $10.30 earnings range for this year. Could you help maybe frame up how you guys are thinking about what modest means? And if there's any drivers that could cause you to exceed your expectations for modestly beating the top end? I know it seemed like the third quarter from our perspective was a pretty healthy beat versus expectations. So just trying to grasp sort of the strength versus your expectations here heading into the fourth quarter.

Thomas Ellman

Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrzej. So I'll first kind of recap what's happened so far and then our decision to take -- to revise the guidance to modestly exceeding the top end of the range. So for the first 9 months of the year, most things were generally in line with our expectations coming into the year. Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the favorable supply-demand dynamics continued to drive positive results for Rail North America.

And the GATX Rail Europe team continued to successfully navigate a challenging economic environment. Similarly, we had strong Engine Leasing results and the RRPF JV with Rolls-Royce performed well. Really 2 factors drove our decision to take -- to revise our guidance description for the third quarter. First, as talked about on the last question, the secondary market remains strong. And second, as talked about on the last question, we earned more for managing the long-term lease portfolio that Brookfield owns than we expected to. So both of those reasons are driven by factors that have some lumpiness to them. And so quantifying the exact amount that we might exceed the high end of the range is going to be dependent on the timing of future opportunities there, which is why we left it where we did.

Robert Lyons

Yes, Andrzej, it's Bob. I'd also add, too, with remarketing income, it gets a little bit more challenging to call that precisely in the fourth quarter because the buyer universe, they're approaching their year-end as we are, but they may have different capital allocations and that they can extend this year or they want to extend it in the first quarter. So we have to work with those potential buyers and at times, try to recognize what their needs are and what their capital plans are. So it gets a little bit more difficult to predict in the fourth quarter.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Understood. I was curious on just the repricing runway of the acquired assets following the Wells Fargo integration. If you're able to share maybe what percent of the acquired operating fleet has now repriced to the current market levels? How much is left to price or maybe sell in the secondary markets? And how does the embedded renewal pricing delta on that specific pool of cars compared to legacy GATX equipment?

Robert Lyons

Yes, I'll start first, Andrzej, by just saying the average term in the portfolio that we purchased was very similar to our own. So we're going to renew the same amount of cars out of the joint venture that GATX would renew in a given year, 18,000 to 20,000 or somewhere in that range. So there's no significant lumpiness to how that portfolio will renew.

We haven't disclosed or broken out the data with regards to the difference in their embedded lease rate and rollover versus ours. And quite frankly, we're managing the entire business as one. Our sales team doesn't differentiate at all between a GATX wholly owned car and a joint venture car because keep in mind also, over time, they'll become wholly owned cars that we're buying that -- we'll likely buy that joint venture down over time. So we're not looking at it as 2 discrete fleets. And certainly, that will be even more the case going forward.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Understood. And wanted to just touch, while we're talking on Wells Fargo, the maintenance expense within North America, I think seemed to dip down sequentially. Last year, I think it went up 2Q to 3Q. Could you just speak to how the synergies are tracking on the Wells Fargo integration and maybe any specifics on the maintenance runway as well?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So really, the story there is very consistent with what we've talked about over the last couple of quarters. So in the near term, we knew that we would be in a position to rationalize the third-party maintenance that's being provided and to challenge the providers in a way that as an owner of maintenance facilities ourselves, we can do that Wells Fargo couldn't. And we're seeing improvement in that area and continue to expect to see that going forward. So the run rate that we've seen so far this year, you would expect to continue for the full year.

Robert Lyons

Yes. And I think if you took our gross maintenance expense year-to-date and annualized it, you come up with $502 million or $503 million. And our guide for the year back in January was about $500 million. So there are some puts and takes between the wholly owned -- our legacy portfolio and the joint venture cars, but we're coming in right in line with what we expected, and we had baked into that some of those synergies already that we're realizing.

Andrzej Tomczyk

And maybe just hitting a little bit on the secondary market activity within rail leasing, and it does seem like that's potentially driving the higher end of the range guidance as well or above the higher end of the range. That's been an area of strength this year and over the recent years. I'm just curious if you could share sort of the types of the profiles of buyers, whether that's institutional funds, shippers or competing lessors that are providing liquidity there. And then I know it's probably a little early, but any indication on what we should anticipate for the pace of gains into 2027 as well? That would be super helpful.

Robert Lyons

Yes, Andrzej, good question. And we continue to see a really wide buyer universe. The breadth and depth is quite strong. If we're putting a book out in the marketplace or one of our competing lessors is doing the same, there's a good list of 25, 30 different types of institutions.

Other lessors is really the primary source. We occasionally will sell cars back to shippers that happens at times, but it's primarily that lessor universe, and it continues to be extremely robust. One thing playing into that is, as we've talked about is the supply dynamic in the marketplace right now. There's not a lot of new cars on order. I think the expectation for this year is quite low from a cyclical standpoint in terms of new car orders.

So if you're an existing lessor with an established base of cars and you're looking to add, you're going to do it in the secondary market. And so we see ample opportunity and really, we don't see that abating anytime soon, absent some bigger macro factor.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Very helpful. And maybe just to close off for me and sort of relatedly as well. I wanted to touch on the tariffs and how that's impacting buyers' decisions as well. I think the tariffs, the idea is that they could elevate the new build replacement economics and the cost of a new car. So are buyers incrementally using that to tap the secondary market as well? Is that causing them to sort of delay new car orders as well? And do you see this dynamic sort of creating a floor for asset values here?

Paul Titterton

So Andrzej, this is Paul speaking. Certainly. This is Paul speaking. And just to address that, I think it's worth a little context here. So with respect to tariffs on new railcars right now, the only railcars that are technically subject to tariffs are tank cars.

So freight cars, which constitute the majority of the new car market are not currently subject to any tariffs. And the tariff situation is fluid in the sense that there are Section 232 tariffs that have been imposed but not enforced, and then there are antidumping tariffs that are under discussion right now for tank cars. So it's a very fluid situation here right now.

What I would say is, obviously, should tariffs be imposed, it would increase the cost of acquisition of tank cars. But GATX is actually extremely well hedged because, of course, it's one of the largest owners of an installed fleet of tank cars, effectively, any increase in the cost to replace that fleet will improve the value of our installed fleet, and that should manifest through lease rates. So it's an evolving situation, but I think that gives you a sense of where we are right now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brendan McCarthy with Sidoti.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

I wanted to start off on the Rail North America utilization rate, up about 40 basis points sequentially. I think we talked about the Wells portfolio having utilization of under 98%, maybe in the 97% range at acquisition date. I guess, are you seeing a benefit from better placement of cars or maybe it's remarketing activity? And I guess, do you expect that utilization rate to continue to grind up back towards that 99% level?

Paul Titterton

So this is Paul speaking, and thank you for the question. Yes, we've had success placing idle cars out of the former Wells Fargo portfolio that's in the joint venture. And really, that's what's driving the improved utilization performance. And really, what I would say is there aren't necessarily any specific markets within any specific car types. It's really been broad-based success with our team placing cars, and we would expect that success to continue. We'll still have the headwinds from the small cube covered hopper fleet serving the sand market. So that will continue to be something of a utilization headwind.

But outside of -- and I will say we've had good success even placing small cubes. But outside of the small cube market, it's been very positive and really trending, I would say, at least as well as we expected coming into this.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Got it. And on the remarketing income side, about $168 million year-to-date. Is the expectation for any potential outperformance above that $200 million threshold? I guess, do you expect any outperformance to come from the legacy side of the fleet? Or is the Wells side potentially going to go above that $70 million number?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So obviously, as Bob mentioned earlier, we really try to think of this as a single portfolio, and that's how we operate the business. But just based on the numbers that you've seen year-to-date, it's more likely that the outperformance would be legacy cars as opposed to the JV cars.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Okay. Understood. And I think last quarter, you mentioned the Wells, the JV expected to contribute maybe double the original $0.20 to $0.30 EPS expectation for the year. Is that still a reasonable expectation for you?

Thomas Ellman

It is. And really, it's driven by the -- primarily by what we talked about earlier in the call, which is the fees that are earned on the portfolio that Brookfield owns.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Okay. Understood. And just last question on capital allocation. It looks like share buybacks were more outsized in the quarter. Obviously, leverage has remained in place and you've continued to -- you exercised, I think, one of the joint venture options. I guess how can we think about the buyback activity going forward? Is it going to be perhaps a larger source of capital going forward?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So what I'll do there is just reiterate the way we think about capital allocation period. So we've mentioned many times, first and foremost, we really seek to make economically accretive investment. Right with that, we're very cognizant of the leverage and other credit metrics. You mentioned leverage staying even and to maintain our strong investment-grade credit rating. And then we return excess capital to shareholders. We regularly do that via the dividend.

And at times, we supplement that with stock buyback. And really, what's happened this year is despite a really strong investment year outside of the Wells Fargo Rail acquisition, we still expect to do about $1 billion of investment, but that is a little bit lower than what you've seen in the last couple of years. So it's not surprising you'd see a little bit more in the stock buyback side.

Robert Lyons

Yes, Brendan, it's Bob. I'd just add, too. I like to think we remain very disciplined around that capital allocation concept of 3 things. The first being the investment. That's what we believe shareholders invest in GATX for us to do is to put capital to work in assets at accretive economics, keep the balance sheet in good shape, keep leverage in good shape and then return excess. So we revisit that concept constantly here at GATX.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Bergner with Gabelli Funds.

Justin Bergner

A couple of clarification questions. You mentioned the $0.20 to $0.30 JV contribution. Is that inclusive of now the extra benefit from managing the Brookfield assets? Or would that extra benefit be on top of the $0.20 to $0.30?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. Great clarification, Justin. Thank you. So all along, we've been talking about the totality of the investment activity and -- investment and related activity with that acquisition. So it includes the performance of the JV, the management fees earned from the JV, the incremental SG&A that we have in order to provide those services and the fees earned from the Brookfield wholly owned portfolio. So it's all of that together.

Robert Lyons

Yes. And Justin, the $0.20 to $0.30 is what we thought coming into the year. Back in July, we said it would be double that, and we're very confident in that level.

Thomas Ellman

Yes. And year-to-date, it's been in the range of $0.50. So we're well on the way.

Justin Bergner

Year-to-date, it's already at $0.50. Okay. Got it. So it was more consistent with the doubling you spoke about in July. Okay. That's very helpful.

Robert Lyons

Yes. Correct.

Justin Bergner

And then just on the benefit from helping Brookfield sell their fully owned cars, I assume that, that's in that other revenue category of Rail North America. And are there any costs associated with it? Or is it mostly drop-through to the bottom line, that revenue?

Thomas Ellman

So there would be, but they're a little difficult to tease out. It would be part of the incremental SG&A. So if you look at what we expected coming into the year, we said SG&A would be up about $30 million on a normalized basis versus a year ago. And we said the vast majority of that would be related to the Wells Fargo Rail acquisition and related activity.

So all of that together is the cost side shows up in SG&A. Everything you see in that other revenue line related to the management fee activity is just the revenue side. It's not net of anything.

Robert Lyons

And that SG&A is coming in about right where we thought it would come in. So we're managing -- the team is managing that quite well.

Justin Bergner

Okay. So not too much additional cost to generate that extra revenue for managing the Brookfield sales. It seems like.

Thomas Ellman

Yes, Justin, just to be sure you understand that, the incremental SG&A we're talking about is mostly related to the operating lease JV that we have with Brookfield, where we're at 33.5% ownership. Yes, there is some additional incremental SG&A related to the long-term lease portfolio, but that would be relatively small.

Justin Bergner

Okay. And then does that mean that you're now managing a slightly smaller or not -- you're getting management fees on a slightly smaller Brookfield fully owned fleet because you've helped sell a decent amount of cars?

Thomas Ellman

Correct.

Justin Bergner

Okay. Got you. Nice work overall. On the maintenance side, just to clarify, the maintenance benefits that you're seeing near term from the Wells Fargo, those are more about better managing third-party maintenance? Or are you actually starting to in-source some of that maintenance already?

Paul Titterton

So Justin, it's Paul speaking. We have not yet in-sourced any of the joint venture maintenance. As we talked about coming into the year, our shops are really full of our own work, and so there really wasn't much of an opportunity to do that. We are going to be laying the groundwork to be able to take in some of that joint venture work, and we're hoping that at some point, potentially later next year, you'll be able to see some of the benefits of that.

Robert Lyons

When we announced the transaction initially, we said it would probably be a 2- to 3-year period before -- just because of the demand of our own fleet and our shops would likely be 2 to 3 years before we started to even move some of the joint venture cars into the -- into our maintenance network. And so we're really digging in and putting the pieces in place to begin doing that on a modest level in 2027, but the expectation is we'll step that up sequentially after next year.

Justin Bergner

Okay. Great. And maybe lastly, the Rail International performance seemed to improve nicely on a sequential basis. It could just be noise, but is there anything you wanted to highlight there in terms of what's going well or what's progressing as expected?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So in general, we came into the year expecting a challenging economic environment. And indeed, we've seen that. The team has done a really good job -- have done a really good job navigating through that. As we noted in the press release, there's really 2 factors driving the comparison year-over-year.

One is that the fleet has grown, thanks largely to the DB Cargo acquisition that we did last year. And then in addition to that, there is some FX benefit that we've seen.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Mohr with Citi.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Yes. I wanted to touch on interest rates as it looks like maybe that's been what's driving some negative sentiment on your shares the last few months and yet your fundamentals remain very strong. Your favorable supply-demand is much more of a meaningful driver in the short term within the year as you've shared in the past. So it seems like that's very much working.

When we look at Fed funds futures, it's showing another 50 bps of hikes likely through the end of 2027. So likely maybe 2 more hikes. I wanted to get your updated views on all of this. Are your fundamentals expected to continue to remain strong? You've got your debt size kind of -- and your leasing portfolio immunized, you're using interest rate swaps to convert the floating to fixed. And then beyond the year, we should see higher interest rates kind of play out as a benefit for you in higher lease rates. So wanted just to kind of get an overall update on your view of the picture on the interest rate headwind that's more sentiment driven whereas your fundamentals remain very strong.

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So Ben, as you know, we certainly take a long-term approach to everything, and that includes the way we finance. Less than 10% of our debt is floating rate. We finance -- a wide variety of ways. But by far, the biggest is accessing the capital markets with 10-year plus debt. So we have long-term debt, mostly fixed. And so the short-term impacts are not particularly meaningful to us because of the way we've structured the portfolio. You alluded to the fact that interest rates increasing can help lease rates. That is absolutely true.

But similarly, that's more of a long-run phenomenon as well. In the short term, it's always supply-demand dynamics that drive the lease rate market by market. But over a long enough period of time, you certainly should expect to see a positive impact on lease rates with increasing interest rates. So at the same time, that cumulative effect could impact GATX from a funding perspective, given the long-term way we fund, you would also see that benefit showing up in the lease rates. So in the near term, both are pretty insulated. In the long term, they are correlated.

Robert Lyons

Yes. As we've always said, as a hard asset owner, and it's the same for any hard asset owner, somewhat of an inflation element is a good thing, and we benefit. We'll take that benefit. It sure, it raises the cost of a new car. But when you own 200,000 installed base, you get the benefit there, far outweighs the increased cost on any incremental cars we're bringing into the fleet. I think between Tom and I and Paul, we've all been here 30 years. I don't think there's any year ever during that period where we thought too much about near-term interest rates. It's not a driver of our business.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Wonderful. And then just one last one from me on the Engine Leasing RRPF JV side. It looks like last quarter, you had a very strong RRPF equity method earnings of roughly $50 million. This quarter, it stepped down to roughly $46 million. And my sense is probably that's more lumpiness than anything else. So I wanted to get your sense on that and what to expect for 4Q in that RRPF of equity method and whether your full year segment profit for Engine Leasing still holds?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So actually, the quarter-to-quarter variance that you mentioned is pretty stable for that business. Things do tend to move because of the gain on sales. One question we normally get, we didn't this quarter, so I'll just provide it anyways, is the split between operating income and remarketing income in that business. And both for the quarter and year-to-date, it's about 2/3, 1/3, 2/3 on the operating side, 1/3 on the remarketing side. And that's really what drives that variability.

As far as the Engine Leasing segment, we do expect it to outperform beginning of year guidance, consistent with the second quarter where we took guidance up, but it's not being driven by the JV. It's driven primarily by the GATX Engine Leasing wholly owned portfolio. And we talked about the reason for that last quarter and a strong maintenance reserve realization that we saw in the second quarter.

Shari Hellerman

The other thing to call out, Ben, is that in the third quarter of 2025, there was a $10 million of pretax insurance proceeds related to engines in Russia, which we normalized.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Shari for closing remarks.

Robert Lyons

Before Shari closes, I just want to mention one thing. We talk often about how we're economic animals at GATX, and that includes everyone around the table. I also happen to be a lifelong Milwaukee brewer fan. And before I walked in here, somebody offered me $100 every time I offered up a baseball-related phrase on the call. So I just want to finish by saying we are hitting on all cylinders. Our commercial team continues to win by hitting singles and doubles, and everyone on the team is contributing. So by my count, I just made $300. Thank you all for your time.

Shari Hellerman

And I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. Please feel free to reach out to me with any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.