カナディアン・ソーラー（CSIQ）2026年第2四半期決算説明会：7,700万ドルの赤字と米国HJTの立ち上げ

主要なポイント

• カナディアン・ソーラー（CSIQ）が発表した2026年第2四半期の売上高は12億ドルとなり、経営陣のガイダンス上限に達しました。粗利益率は13.9%でした。
• 同社は7,700万ドルの株主に帰属する純損失（1株当たり1.40ドルの赤字）を計上しました。運賃の高騰やジェファーソンビル太陽電池工場の立ち上げ費用が収益性の重荷となりました。
• 太陽光モジュールの売上計上実績は3.1 GWに達しました。蓄電システムの出荷量は計3.7 GWhで、うち売上計上されたのは3.3 GWhとなり、北米での納入加速により経営陣の蓄電システム予想を上回りました。
• カナディアン・ソーラーは米国のHJT太陽電池工場の操業を開始し、第1期の生産能力を2.1 GWpへ拡大させています。第1期のフル生産は10月1日に予定されており、第2期により総生産能力は2027年に6.3 GWpへ引き上げられる見込みです。
• 契約済み受注残高は13 GWp（金額ベースで45億ドル超相当）を超え、2029年までの米国製HJTおよびTOPConモジュールが対象となっています。e-STORAGEの受注残高は35億ドルでした。
• 経営陣による2026年第3四半期の売上高ガイダンスは13億〜15億ドル、粗利益率は13.5%〜15.5%、モジュール出荷量は3.5〜3.8 GW、蓄電システム出荷量は3.4〜3.8 GWhと設定されています。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の状況

太陽光製造事業

カナディアン・ソーラーは、3.1 GW分の太陽光モジュールについて売上高を計上しました。米国の堅調な出荷量が寄与しており、当四半期のモジュール出荷量のほぼ半分が北米向けとなりました。

製造セグメントは4,900万ドルの営業損失を計上しました。出荷単価の上昇やジェファーソンビル工場の立ち上げ関連費用が反映されています。経営陣は、第1フェーズの完了と第2フェーズの進展に伴いこれらのコストが正常化し、モジュールの粗利益率改善に寄与すると見込んでいます。

ジェファーソンビルHJTセル工場は第1フェーズの稼働を2.1 GWpへ引き上げており、10月1日に本格生産を開始する予定です。第2フェーズの設備設置は年内に始まる見込みで、公称総生産能力は2027年に6.3 GWpに達する予定です。カナディアン・ソーラーは、テキサス州メスキートのモジュール工場も拡張しています。

同社は、2029年までの米国製HJTおよびTOPCon N型両面発電モジュールにおいて13 GWpを超える契約を締結しています。受注残高は45億ドルを超えており、米国の電力会社、独立系発電事業者（IPP）、開発事業者、EPC企業との契約が含まれています。

エネルギー貯蔵事業

蓄電システムの出荷量は3.7 GWhに達しましたが、売上高として認識されたのは3.3 GWhにとどまりました。これは400 MWhを超える社内プロジェクト向け割り当て分を除外したためです。米国とカナダの2つのプロジェクトが予想以上に進展したため、出荷量はガイダンスを上回りました。

e-STORAGEの当四半期末時点における契約済み受注残高は35億ドルに上り、これには34 GWh分のプロジェクトをカバーする長期サービス契約が含まれています。同社はまた、米国の電力会社から500 MW/2.5 GWhのDC蓄電プロジェクトに関する契約を獲得しました。同プロジェクトはデータセンターの電力網インフラとレジリエンスを支援するよう設計されています。

カナディアン・ソーラーは現在SolBank 3.0を量産中で、20フィートのエンクロージャーで5 MWhの容量を提供しています。経営陣は2027年にSolBank 4.0の出荷を開始する計画で、同じ設置面積で6.25 MWhを提供する予定です。

リカレント・エナジー

リカレント・エナジーが計上した第2四半期の売上高は1億1,700万ドルでした。複数のプロジェクト売却が2026年後半にずれ込んだため、売上高は前四半期比で減少しました。同セグメントは1,900万ドルの営業損失を計上しましたが、これには2,400万ドルの減損損失が含まれており、これは近く予定されている中南米でのプロジェクト売却に関連したものです。

事業上のハイライトとしては、スペインにおける426 MWの太陽光発電資産の商業運転開始や、オーストラリアにおける150 MWのCarwarpプロジェクトの電力網接続が挙げられます。同プロジェクトはマイクロソフトとの長期電力購入契約で裏付けられています。

リカレント・エナジーはまた、6億9,500万ドルの建設融資および出資パッケージを確保しました。対象はカリフォルニア州にある330 MWのCobalt太陽光発電施設です。

2026年6月30日時点で、リカレント・エナジーは約6 GWの太陽光発電および13 GWhの蓄電施設で系統接続を確保していました（稼働中プロジェクトを除く）。総開発パイプラインはほぼ22 GWの太陽光発電と84 GWhの蓄電施設に達しています。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、下半期に米国の太陽光および蓄電システムの出荷が加速し、残りの各四半期で前四半期比で数量が増加すると予想しています。また、Recurrent Energyは第2四半期から延期されていたプロジェクトの売却を完了する見込みであり、第3四半期の前期比での業績拡大を後押しします。

カナディアン・ソーラーがジェファーソンビル工場へのフェーズ2設備の導入、メスキート・モジュール工場の生産能力倍増、シェルビービル蓄電池工場の拡張を進めるため、下半期の設備投資額は増加する見通しです。

リスクおよび注視すべき事項

• 貨物輸送・物流： 高騰した輸送コストが第2四半期の利益率に影響を及ぼしました。経営陣は、米国でのオンショアリング（国内生産化）が進むにつれて、時間の経過とともに海外物流リスクが減少すると見込んでいます。
• 製造の実行力： ジェファーソンビル工場の立ち上げに伴い短期的な費用が発生したほか、複数の米国拡張プロジェクト向けに下半期に多額の設備投資が必要となります。
• 政策上の不確実性： 経営陣は、輸入ポリシリコンおよびその派生製品に対する新232条の枠組みを全体としてプラスと評価したものの、運用の詳細や同社の製造に対する相殺措置の適用資格については、米国商務省との協議が継続しています。
• プロジェクト売却の時期： Recurrent Energyの取引延期により第2四半期の売上高が減少したものの、今後の収益化（売却）は資本循環とデレバレッジ（負債削減）において引き続き重要となります。
• 貸借対照表（BS）への圧力： プロジェクト建設資金の調達増加により、負債総額は71億ドルに増加しました。経営陣は資産の収益化によって開発事業におけるレバレッジを低減させると期待している一方、米国投資を賄うための製造関連の負債は増加する見通しです。
• 為替リスク： 中国人民元高により、当四半期に900万ドルの為替差損が発生しました。

アナリストQ&Aの要点

第232条に基づく価格設定および契約の調整

経営陣は、45億ドルを超える 米国モジュールの受注残高には、新たな232条の発表に関する調整がまだ含まれていないと述べました。契約には法令変更および調整メカニズムが含まれており、顧客との契約改定に伴い受注残高の価値は上昇すると経営陣は見込んでいます。

同社は、政策が発表されたばかりであることやガイダンス待ちであることを理由に、潜在的な値上げ幅についての数値を明らかにしませんでした。それにもかかわらず、経営陣はこの枠組みがCSI Solarにとってプラス（アクレティブ）になると期待しており、明記された12月4日の施行日前に納入が加速すると予想しています。

関税軽減措置の可能性

経営陣は、メスキート・モジュール工場、ジェファーソンビル・セル施設、シェルビービル蓄電池工場への投資を行っているため、カナディアン・ソーラーに関税軽減措置が適用される資格があると見なしています。同社は商務省の手続きを通じて申請する予定ですが、適用される金額や時期については確認していません。

経営陣はさらに、カナディアン・ソーラーが設備投資に関連する全額のリベートを受け取れなかったとしても、最低輸入価格設定が米国のモジュール価格を下支えする可能性があると補足しました。

研究開発費と知的財産

経営陣は、研究開発費が通常売上高全体の1%〜2%を占めていると述べました。同社は米国での製造およびプロセス研究開発能力を強化している一方、カナダはパワーエレクトロニクス、インバーター、PCS、蓄電システムの知的財産に関する重要な拠点であり続けています。

HJT戦略と宇宙太陽光発電

経営陣は、米国でのセル生産にHJTが選定された理由として、カナディアン・ソーラーが既存の技術的知見を有していること、同プロセスの必要労働力が少ないこと、そしてTOPConと比較して知的財産権の環境が相対的にクリアであることを挙げた。

同社は、HJTをベースとした宇宙用太陽光発電アプリケーションにおいて、非公開の宇宙・衛星パートナーと協業している。経営陣は短期的には著しい規模拡大を見込んでおらず、現時点では2029年に初回出荷を計画している。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Canadian Solar's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Melissa and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I'd now like to turn the call over to Wina Wang, Head of Investor Relations at Canadian Solar. Please go ahead.

Wina Wang

Thank you, Operator, and welcome everyone to Canadian Solar's second quarter 2026 conference call. Please note that today's conference call is accompanied with slides which are available on Canadian Solar's Investor Relations website within the Events and Presentations section. Joining us today are Colin Parkin, CEO, [ Dylan Marks ], CEO of Canadian Solar subsidiary Recurrent Energy, [ Simbo Jules ], Senior VP and CFO, and Dr. [ Sean Hsu ], Executive Chairman and CTO. All company executives will participate in the Q&A session after management's formal remarks.

On this call, Colin will deliver key messages for the quarter, [ Dylan Marks ] will share updates for Recurrent Energy, [ Simbo Jules ] will go through the financial results, and [ Sean Hsu ] will discuss sustainability and technology highlights. Colin will conclude the prepared remarks with the business outlook, after which we will have time for questions.

Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that management's prepared remarks today, as well as their answers to questions, will contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The company claims protection under the Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ from management's current expectations. Any projections of the company's future performance represent management's estimates as of today. Canadian Solar assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future unless otherwise required by applicable law.

A more detailed discussion of risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's annual report on Form 20-F, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management's prepared remarks will be presented within the requirements of SEC Regulation G regarding generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP. Some financial information presented during the call will be provided on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. By disclosing certain non-GAAP information, management intends to provide investors with additional information to enable further analysis of the company's performance and underlying trends. Management uses non-GAAP measures to better assess operating performance and to establish operational goals. GAAP information should not be viewed by investors as a substitute for data provided in accordance with GAAP. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Canadian Solar's CEO, Colin Parkin. Colin, please go ahead.

Colin Parkin

Thank you, Wina, and thank you all for joining our second quarter earnings call. Beginning on slide 3, we recognized on 3.1 gigawatts of solar modules within guidance. We exceeded our storage guidance, shipping 3.7 gigawatt-hours and recognizing revenue on 3.3 gigawatt-hours within the quarter. Revenue totaled $1.2 billion at the high end of guidance. Gross margin was in line with guidance at 13.9%. Profitability was impacted by elevated freight costs from ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. We also faced near-term ramp-up costs for our solar cell manufacturing facility in Jeffersonville. These factors led to a net loss attributable to shareholders of $77 million or $1.40 per share.

Turning now to slide 4. Our manufacturing segment remains the key driver of our financial performance today, also where our strategic priorities lie. In our solar business, we continue to prioritize high-margin regions. We shipped nearly half of our quarterly module volumes to our North America home base. In our energy storage business, we are scaling rapidly and executing well globally. In a single quarter, we delivered to utility-scale projects across North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. We outperformed guidance due to accelerated deliveries for 2 projects in the U.S. and Canada. Higher unit shipping costs and ramp-up expenses led to an operating loss of $49 million. As we finish ramping Phase 1 of our solar cell facility and expand through Phase 2, these costs will normalize. We expect overall module margins to improve as a result.

Now turning to slide 5. A major highlight this quarter was the official opening of our state-of-the-art HJT solar cell facility. This marks a historic milestone. Canadian Solar is now the first commercially operational HJT manufacturer in the United States. We are also proud of the facility's meaningful impact and contribution to the local economy and community. We are currently ramping up Phase 1 capacity to 2.1 gigawatt-peak. Phase 1 is set to enter full-scale production on October 1st. Before the end of the year, we will begin installing equipment for Phase 2, which will bring our Jeffersonville total nameplate cell capacity to 6.3 gigawatt-peak in 2027. This facility will be the largest crystalline silicon cell manufacturing plant in North America.

Paired with our 10 gigawatt-peak module facility in Texas, [ CSI Solar ] solidifies its place as one of North America's largest and premier integrated photovoltaic manufacturers. These expansions are backed up by strong customer demand for our high-performance U.S. solar products, which offer valuable domestic content benefits. Turning please to slide 6. [ CSI Solar ] has secured over 13 gigawatt-peak in contracted backlog for our domestically manufactured HJT and TOPCon N-type bifacial modules. Deliveries are scheduled through 2029. This backlog includes multiple long-term master service agreements with leading U.S. utilities, IPPs, developers, and EPCs. These commitments continue to grow daily and already represent north of $4.5 billion in value.

On the policy front, President Trump released a new Section 232 announcement this month, which is focused on imported polysilicon and its derivative products. We view this new policy structure as supportive of our long-term investment in domestic manufacturing. Key details include minimum import pricing, tariff provisions, and potential manufacturing offsets for companies investing in domestic manufacturing capacity. The Department of Commerce will work to approve U.S. investment plans. We will continue to be in active, constructive, ongoing dialogue with the Department of Commerce, and will continue to participate throughout the 120-day implementation period. Our current evaluation indicates that these measures will reinforce U.S. solar pricing, and we are actively working with our customers to navigate this period of uncertainty. Overall, we view this policy direction as net positive for Canadian Solar, and we welcome the administration's support for American industrial growth.

Now turning to slide 7. For e-STORAGE, we shipped 3.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage solutions this quarter and recognized revenue on 3.3 gigawatt-hours after accounting for the more than 400 megawatt-hours to internal projects under execution. At the end of this quarter, our contracted backlog stood at $3.5 billion. This includes long-term service agreements covering 34 gigawatt-hours of contracted projects. We see demand from data centers transitioning from conversations to contracted opportunities. Earlier this year, e-STORAGE secured a contract with a major U.S. utility for a 500-megawatt, 2.5-gigawatt-hour DC project designed to support data center grid infrastructure and resiliency.

Energy-intensive data centers and their stakeholders face 2 primary hurdles: securing power and maintaining grid stability. Interconnection approvals and transmission builds require years to complete. Battery energy storage unlocks the higher throughput from existing infrastructure, responds dynamically to load swings, fortifies grid resilience, and protects mission-critical computing hardware from power disruption. For on-site behind-the-meter facilities, energy storage integrates seamlessly with other generation technology, including natural gas and renewable power generation. We are actively engaging with data center hyperscalers, developers, and utility customers to deliver solutions that help overcome these challenges.

Our market value extends well beyond supplying batteries. We produce our own battery cells, design the SolBank platform, integrate the power conversion and proprietary energy management controls, deliver full EPC and commissioning services, and provide ongoing support through long-term service agreements. This end-to-end full-stack model offers customers a single, accountable partner while supplying us with real-world operating data to refine future solutions. Now let me hand the call over to [ Dylan Marks ] to review updates for Recurrent Energy, Canadian Solar's global project development business. [ Dylan Marks ], please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Colin. Starting on slide 8, we generated $117 million of revenue in the second quarter. Revenue declined sequentially, primarily because several project sales moved into the second half of the year. Electricity sales revenue rose quarter-over-quarter, supported by the commercial operation of a large solar asset in Spain. With muted project sales during the quarter and a $24 million impairment charge related to an upcoming project sale in Latin America, operating expenses rose quarter-over-quarter. As a result, we recorded an operating loss of $19 million. Despite the lowered financial performance, we continued to hit key operational milestones throughout the second quarter.

Earlier in the quarter, we brought a 426-megawatt solar asset in Spain into commercial operation, which began contributing recurring energy. Our partnerships with leading global technology companies further validate our development platform. In Australia, we recently connected the 150-megawatt [ Carwarp ] project, which is backed by a long-term power purchase agreement with Microsoft. We also continue to secure competitive, large-scale project financing. Recently, we closed a $695 million construction financing equity package for our 330-megawatt [ cobalt ] solar facility in California. MUFG and NORD/LB provided the construction loans while Wells Fargo provided the tax equity.

Turning to slide 9 for our portfolio pipeline update. As of June 30, 2026, we have secured grid interconnections for approximately 6 gigawatts of solar and 13 gigawatt-hours of energy storage globally, excluding projects already in operation. Our total development pipeline stands at nearly 22 gigawatts of solar and 84 gigawatt-hours of energy storage. Our strategy for this pipeline remains focused on high-quality, high-margin opportunities that drive real value, actively pruning lower-margin assets. For instance, we scaled back our EMEA pipeline following detailed evaluations of permitting, technical, and commercial viability. At the same time, we are moving decisively where we see attractive upside.

Our team is actively positioning us to compete in Brazil's upcoming energy storage auction, which expanded our early-stage pipeline in Latin America. For the second half of the year, our priority remains the selective monetization of certain operating assets under construction and development assets. These transactions are intended to support our capital recycling strategy, improve financial flexibility, and address leverage levels over time while preserving our ability to invest in high-return growth opportunities. Now, let me hand the call over to [ Simbo Jules ] who will go through our financial results in more detail. Please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, [ Dylan Marks ]. Beginning on slide 10. In the second quarter, we recognized revenue on 3.1 gigawatts of modules and 3.3 gigawatt-hours of energy storage solutions, both sequentially higher. Module performance was bolstered by strong U.S. volumes. We beat storage guidance due to accelerated project deliveries in North America. Despite light contributions from Recurrent Energy due to deferred project sales, solid execution in the manufacturing segment lifted total revenue to $1.2 billion, reaching the high end of our guidance. Gross margin was 13.9%, in line with guidance. The sequential and year-over-year margin drops reflect 2 non-recurring items: the tariff refund benefits recognized last quarter and second, the release of unrealized profit upon sales of a U.S. project in the prior year period.

Operating expenses rose 21% sequentially. This was driven by a combination of elevated freight rates and non-logistic ramp-up costs at our Jeffersonville solar cell plant. Net interest expense rose to $43 million from $36 million in the first quarter, primarily due to lower capitalized interest. We recorded a net foreign exchange loss of $9 million, primarily driven by strong appreciation in the Chinese yuan. [ CSI Solar ] recorded a $41 million mark-to-market gain in investment income from its equity investment in a battery equipment company, helping buffer our bottom line. As a result, Canadian Solar recorded a total net loss attributable to shareholders of $77 million, or $1.40 per share.

Now let's turn to cash flow and the balance sheet on slide 11. Net cash flow used in operating activities during the second quarter of 2026 was $181 million, driven primarily by changes in working capital. Total assets grew to $16.1 billion. This increase primarily reflects ongoing consumption of U.S. solar and storage projects, along with inventory expansion to support our U.S. manufacturing strategy. Total debt increased to $7.1 billion, mainly from non-recourse construction financing for solar and storage projects under Recurrent Energy in the U.S. As we monetize operating under-construction and development assets, we expect to deleverage the project's development business.

At the same time, our manufacturing segment will take on incremental debt to fund strategic U.S. manufacturing investments, which we expect to expand profitability and cash flow in 2027 and beyond. Capital expenditures in the second quarter were $172 million, primarily directed toward our [ U.S. manufacturing ] initiatives. We anticipate full-year 2026 CapEx to total around $1.3 billion. This implies higher capital outlays in the second half as we begin Phase 2 equipment installation at Jeffersonville, double capacity at our Mesquite module plant, and scale up our energy storage facility in Shelbyville. We closed the quarter with a cash balance of $1.9 billion, providing us with solid liquidity to execute on our strategic priorities. Now let me turn the call to [ Sean Hsu ], who will discuss our sustainability achievements and the technology roadmap. [ Sean Hsu ], please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, [ Simbo Jules ]. Turning to slide 12. In June, we published our 2025 Corporate Sustainability Report. This highlights our commitment to driving the global clean energy transition through sustainable and responsible business practices. The report tracks our focus on value-driven growth. Notably, the Science Based Targets initiative validated our net-zero greenhouse gas target. We also advanced our resource efficiency, achieving significant energy and water savings alongside 2 zero-carbon factory certifications. Furthermore, we reinforced our supply chain transparency and ethical labor standards. These efforts are backed by independent audits and certifications across our manufacturing footprint and key suppliers. Overall, this report demonstrates that environmental, social responsibility, and strong governance are fundamental to how we build long-term stakeholder value.

At the core of everything we do is technological innovation. Turning to slide 13, we continue to execute a multi-generation technology roadmap across both solar PV and energy storage solutions. Starting with solar PV, our near-term priority through 2028 is the mass production and optimization of our next-generation HJT, our heterojunction, and TOPCon architectures. Across our commercial, utility, C&I, and residential markets, we are scaling module efficiency from 23.2% up to 24.4%, while aggressively reducing silver consumption from 6.5 milligrams per watt down to 3 milligrams per watt to drive down this key input cost. Looking slightly further ahead, we expect mass production of our premium TBC architecture by 2028. Designed primarily for the premium residential market, TBC aims to deliver efficiencies between 24.8% and 25.2% with ultra-low silver usage of just 1 to 2 milligrams per watt.

Beyond terrestrial single-junction silicon, we approach physical limits at around 25% to 26% module efficiency. For applications and multi-junction technologies, we have already begun collaborating on space PV opportunities using our HJT cell technology with planned shipments in 2029 for extreme space environments where radiation tolerance and thermal cycling resilience are critical. For long-term utility-scale expansion, our ultimate efficiency frontier lies in tandem cells, targeted for commercial shipments in 2030 to break through the 30% module efficiency barrier. Given that Perovskite reliability will require another 5 to 10 years of validation before large-scale ground deployment, space applications may well serve as the initial commercial stepping stones to these next-generation tandem structures.

Turning to our energy storage and power electronics roadmap on slide 14. We are building a foundation for sustainable, high-density, and long-duration storage assets. We are currently mass-producing SolBank 3.0, which delivers 5 megawatt-hours of capacity in a standard 20-foot enclosure using 314 Ah LFP cells. We will soon begin shipping the next iteration, SolBank 4.0, starting in 2027. This solution increases energy density by 25%, delivering 6.25 megawatt-hours in the same 20-foot footprint utilizing high-capacity 588 Ah LFP cells. To complement these larger battery systems, our solar electronics hardware is scaling in tandem. We are transitioning from our air-cooled mid-voltage [ SCET 1.0 ] to our liquid-cooled mid-voltage [ SCET 2.0 ], which integrates 32 of our 450-kilowatt inverters to achieve 14.4 megawatts in a 40-foot layout.

Further out on our 2030 roadmap, we're exploring solid-state transformers at 2.5 megawatts, 34.5 kilovolts AC to 800 volts DC solutions, achieving over 98.35% conversion efficiency that has the potential to replace traditional PCS units and integrate directly into BESS platforms as cost and reliability mature. To address long-duration storage and harsh environment requirements at a potentially lower levelized cost of storage, or LCOS, we are actively validating our containerized sodium-ion platform. This will eventually deliver an exceptional cycle life of over 15,000 cycles. [ 3D MIME ] technologies offer compelling structural advantages, abundant raw materials free from geopolitical restraints, superior performance in extreme cold temperatures, and simplified cooling requirements that could meaningfully reduce long-term operational expenditures. It also delivers important safety advantages such as significantly reduced thermal runaway risk.

We are also developing a high-capacity energy storage product designed for deployment inside AI Data Center server rooms to deliver millisecond-scale energy management solutions. Ultimately, unifying these solar and storage developments advances our vision of Canadian Solar as a total energy technologies provider. By pairing these technology roadmaps with robust end-to-end capabilities and full visibility across our supply chain, we are uniquely positioned to deliver the mission-critical clean energy infrastructure of tomorrow to our global customers. We will unveil more cutting-edge energy technologies in the future, so stay tuned. Now, let me turn the call back to Colin, who will conclude with our guidance and business outlook. Colin, please go ahead.

Colin Parkin

Thank you, [ Sean Hsu ]. Turning now to slide 15. For the third quarter of 2026, we expect to recognize revenue from 3.5 to 3.8 gigawatts of solar modules. We expect energy storage deliveries to range between 3.4 and 3.8 gigawatt-hours. Driven by sequentially higher manufacturing volumes, we project third-quarter revenue to be between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, with gross margin expected to range between 13.5% and 15.5%. We anticipate U.S. solar and storage shipments to accelerate in the second half, with each remaining quarter delivering higher volumes than the last. At Recurrent Energy, we expect to finalize the project sales delayed from the second quarter. This will drive a sequentially stronger third quarter. For the full year of 2026, we reiterate our U.S. volume guidance of 6.5 to 7 gigawatts of module shipments and 4.5 to 5.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage shipments. With that, I would now like to open the floor for questions. Operator, please go ahead.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer and Company. Please proceed with your question.

質疑応答

Colin Rusch

Sean, if you look at the roadmap that you just articulated from the technology perspective, it's pretty robust. There's a lot of activity. I want to understand 2 dynamics. One, just trend lines on overall spending on the R&D line to bring all of this to fruition. Then secondarily, where from a regionalization perspective, where is that work going to happen and where is the IP going to sit as you bring, it looks like, 5 or 6 pretty significant technology evolutions to market.

Unknown Executive

Yes, Colin, thank you. Because our revenue base is big, although the R&D spending is significant, typically it's around 1% to 2% of the total revenue. So we are controlling it well.

Colin Rusch

And from an IP perspective, is that going to sit in the U.S.? Is it going to sit outside the U.S.? Is it not a concern, is it more around just know-how and understanding how to manufacture these things where you guys feel like you have an advantage?

Unknown Executive

Yes, Colin, this is a good question. Yes, we develop more and more the manufacturing and also process R&D capabilities in the U.S. We're seeing more and more IP sit with the U.S. Meanwhile, we also developed a lot of good technology in Canada. I also see more and more IP in Canada, especially the IP related to the power electronics and either from inverter to the PCS or the energy storage system.

Colin Rusch

Excellent. And just the follow-up here is really around shipping expense and kind of practical ways that you guys can manage that or start passing that on in a more material way to customers here over the next 6 to 12 months.

Colin Parkin

Good morning, Colin. Thanks for the question. Colin here. Regarding the shipping expense, we do build that into our contracts and pass that along. But of course, the dynamic of the shipping cost, logistics costs start to change when we look at this continuing to scale in North America. Obviously, we don't have as significant overseas freight. So we'll start to see that shipping costs start to decrease just primarily due to the onshoring in the U.S.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Maheep Mandloi

One question on that, you talked about the 13 gigawatts of bookings through '29. The pricing seems to be in mid-30 cents per watt. Could you clarify if that already includes any impact of this new Section 232 on polysilicon? If not, then what prices are you seeing and is there any flexibility to go to the existing customers on higher prices if the spot prices move up on Section 232?

Colin Parkin

Good morning, Maheep. Thanks for the question, Colin here. And we have Thomas on the line as well, but I'll start. Our contracts are structured with change in law and adjustment mechanisms with all this anticipated. So what we see is this is all very new. I think, as you know, this is only fresh in the last couple of weeks with the new Poly 232. But we already see the market adjusting. We think it will definitely drive for accelerated deliveries in the second half of this year in advance of the proclamation implementation, I think on December 4th. We're going to see a rush and with that, it's driving an increase in price and correlating demand.

So we are seeing that start to adjust. We are seeing the market start to adjust, but it is a relatively new change to the market. But I think overall from Canadian Solar's standpoint with the backlog that we mentioned, the 13 gigawatts backlog, it shows a strong demand for our U.S.-based products, and our customers are certainly willing to work with us as they have to adjust as well. Thomas, do you have anything to add on top of that?

Thomas Koerner

Sure. So good morning. Colin is spot on. The only comment I would make is that this backlog and the respective revenue value does not include a 232 adjustment yet. So this is going to increase and grow further as we're adjusting contracts and agreements with customers, but it includes, of course, a certain portion of down payment, certain shipment costs, some are further away, some are closer away, so you can take that all into account. But the 232 announcement will push the respective value upwards as we discuss and readjust and renegotiate with customers. I hope this answers your question.

Maheep Mandloi

Maybe just like a different follow-up on the tariff or the duty exemption issue with domestic CapEx. Just want to understand how much could we expect on that for you guys for CapEx? I think there's some language on that exemption is only applicable for new CapEx. So just curious if the R&D CapEx would be applicable or just certain CapEx.

Unknown Executive

Well, the policy 232 does allow the U.S. manufacturing project to offset the tariff duties. So as Colin said, we will actively engage with the Department of Commerce and we'll try to go through this process. And yes, we will apply for the tariff and the MIP exemptions related to our U.S. manufacturing products.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Philip Shen

As a follow-up to Maheep's second question on the tariff rebate program, Sean, you just mentioned that you have good standing with the Commerce Department. So I was wondering if you might be able to elaborate on that, and specifically, do you expect to qualify for the tariff rebate program? And if so, can you give us some color on why and how?

Unknown Executive

Well, we do expect we are qualified. We qualify for the tariff relief program because we are the one who invest and really invested into U.S. manufacturing through our solar module factory in Mesquite and also the solar cell factory in Jeffersonville, plus the energy storage factory in Shelbyville. So we are putting real dollars into onshoring the U.S. manufacturing. So we believe we are qualified. As I mentioned, we will go through the process. So I guess I shouldn't comment too much before we finish the dialogue and the process with the Department of Commerce.

Philip Shen

And then earlier, Colin and Thomas talked about pricing already moving. And so I was wondering if you guys might be able to quantify the magnitude of the price increase that you've seen thus far and then where you expect things to change. So if your existing bookings are at X, do you think we see a $0.05 move in pricing to the upside? Or do you think it's $0.10 or maybe more?

Colin Parkin

Philip, I think we're just like everybody else. We're monitoring the market and seeing what the opportunity looks like. I think it might be a little premature for us to speculate how fast those changes and the magnitude. So I think we're only a week or 2 into this new proclamation and we're still waiting for, as a matter of fact, expecting new guidance to come. So that could also shape things as well. So I'd hesitate to give a specific amount, but I can tell you that we do feel it's going to be accretive to [ CSI Solar ] overall.

Philip Shen

One last follow-up. As it relates back to the tariff rebates program based on U.S. CapEx, what happens and what do you guys do if you cannot qualify for that tariff rebate program?

Unknown Executive

Well, that's a good question. I think the MIP requirements will help to strengthen the U.S. manufacturers' advantages. The overall price will go up. If the overall solar module price goes up, it will help us even in the case that we don't fully receive the rebate related to our CapEx. So overall, without rebate, I think that this decision will be accretive to [ CSI Solar ] and any real, meaningful manufacturers investing in the U.S.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alan Lau with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Alan Lau

I asked management about the recent policy coming out from the White House last night on the Bulk-Power System. So we'd like to know, because Canadian Solar actually has a battery cell plant in the U.S. So what's your view on complying to that U.S. manufacturing requirement, especially in relation to energy storage?

Colin Parkin

Alan, I would like to just hold off responding on that because it's something very new and we haven't had a chance to fully study that. I will just generally say that in all respects, our ability to comply to U.S. requirements is strong generally because our supply chain has already evolved to supporting the domestic content requirements and our U.S. manufacturing plans have been structured around that. I don't want to comment on such a recent policy change, but I would only say that at the moment, I expect we'll be able to address any changes.

Alan Lau

So we got into another previous FTC investigation. I think there were a couple of clarifications I think on the 20th of August on basically for inverters that were produced in the U.S. and is eligible for 45X would not be classified as currently produced. So I recall the company previously was having third-party as a supplier for inverters, but also the company is also starting to do PCS as well. So I wonder if management has any comment in regards to FTC previous restrictions on this one.

Colin Parkin

Yes, Alan, a good question. First of all, our inverters are not currently being moved into the U.S., so it's not an issue for us in terms of our current supply chain. But as you mentioned, we do procure significant amounts of third-party inverters, PCS for example, and we are actively involved with our supply chain to ensure that they meet all the FCC requirements and or have the path to have those FCC requirements in place. We don't see any issues with any of our business activities at this time related to the recent changes. There's just recent clarification provided with respect to the communication protocols, which we're looking at very carefully, but we don't see any impact to our business at the moment with respect to the new SEC requirements.

Unknown Executive

I would like to add a little bit color comment on top of what Colin just said. We also noticed that the new guidance and FCC said anything qualified for the 45X, which means qualified for the local manufacturing and eligible for 45X, will be considered domestic. Therefore, will not require FCC approval. I think this is a very interesting policy clarification. As you mentioned, we do have our own PCS, we have that technology center in Canada. So we have started to actively look into the feasibility of manufacturing that PCS and inverter in the U.S. utilizing the advantage that Canadian Solar already has, [ CSI Solar ], which is the 45X qualified structure in the U.S. So yes, we are actively reviewing the feasibility of that.

Alan Lau

Because I recall the company actually got a very strong record in the U.S. manufacturing and has already secured 45X credits for other products like modules already. So that might actually be a positive opportunity for a company to take share. So that's why the question is coming from. So switching gears to the technology path, because I noticed that Sean has spent quite a lot of time, I think that is quite new I think in this quarterly results. I would like to know, because Sean has mentioned about space PV, so I suspect if there has already been some form of discussion with major clients in the aerospace industry or it's more a product development stage or there's actually already some early stage navigation already?

Unknown Executive

Yes, space PV is a very interesting direction, although I don't expect it to come to a meaningful scale next year. But in the long run, space is what everybody is looking at, including myself. Canadian Solar is a strong participant in the HJT or heterojunction cell architecture, and this is what the industry considers very favorable for silicon-based space PV applications. And the research so far shows that the p-type heterojunction will have better tolerance to the high-energy particle radiation bombardment in space. Therefore, p-type heterojunction, especially the HJT, is considered to be a leading candidate for silicon-based solar cell applications in space.

So we do manufacture the p-type. As you know, the Jeffersonville solar cell factory adopted the HJT solar cell structure. And so far we use n-type for the HJT for terrestrial applications, however, it's very easy for us to convert that into p-type. And we already use very thin wafers. And the wafer to be processed in our Jeffersonville factory averages at 110 micrometer thickness, which is one of the thinnest wafers used for commercial production. Now also on the R&D side, we have designed and processed even thinner, to a 50-micron thickness with p-type for heterojunctions and very successful, so we can supply that. So we are at the leading front of space PV. Now we are talking to other space and satellite, especially the satellite companies, about this application. We are collaborating. Now I can't disclose the customer name, but now we have close collaborations with space-related partners.

Alan Lau

So it's also interesting that your view on the space PV is on HJT. Having mentioned about HJT, there are some market views that TOPCon might have some issues in relation to the Section 337 patent investigation. Is it one of the reasons that you are selecting the HJT technology in the U.S. because it is not the mainstream technology outside of the U.S.? Or is it really other reasons like labor or to start the production process?

Unknown Executive

Yes, we choose HJT heterojunction for the U.S. factory for several reasons, not 1 reason. So number 1, yes, our strong R&D effort already into HJT. As a matter of fact, we have studied the HJT structure as early as 2017 and 2018. We have been doing HJT development for 6, 7 years already. We have very strong knowledge. By the way, that also explains why our ramp-up of the Jeffersonville solar cell line was so far successful. I will say pretty smooth. Any ramp-up will have some issues. That's the point of the ramp-up, which is to discover the results and solve an issue. But our ramp-up in Jeffersonville was very successful. So that's the technical side.

And second, our HJT process is very neat. It's more equipment dependent than human dependent. It does require much less operators than TOPCon. And we think this is a very unique advantage for the U.S. manufacturing. And IP is also an issue, no question about it. On one hand, we are very confident that our TOPCon technology stands alone on its own feet and does not have any conflict with other companies' TOPCon IPs. However, less IP conflict is even better. So the HJT IP is much cleaner than TOPCon. That's also 1 reason for our decision to select HJT for the U.S. cell manufacturing. So there are quite a few factors. And all in all, we believe that HJT is a good technology. Also, as I mentioned, HJT is a leading candidate for the space application. We also considered those factors when we made this decision around 3 years ago.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Parkin for final comments.

Colin Parkin

Thank you for joining us today and for your continued support. If you have any questions or would like to set up a call, please contact our investor relations team. Take care, everybody, and have a great day. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.