SpaceX Officially Added to Nasdaq 100 Index Today. Nasdaq Volatility Faces Risk of Amplification

Despite the expectations of passive buying driven by its inclusion in the index, the multiple pressures facing SpaceX cannot be ignored.

First is the fundamental issue of persistent losses, with a full-year loss of $4.937 billion in 2025 and another loss of $4.276 billion in the first quarter of this year; only the Starlink satellite internet segment has achieved stable profitability, while rocket R&D, deep space exploration, and AI projects continue to burn massive amounts of cash.

Second is the pressure from the expiration of lock-up periods on restricted shares, with multiple tranches of insider holdings set to be unlocked over the next 70 to 135 days, while core shareholders like Elon Musk face lock-up periods of up to 366 days; analysts have termed this potential selling pressure a "short-term sword of Damocles."

Market opinions on SpaceX's trajectory following its index inclusion are highly divided, with Cboe Senior Vice President JJ Kinahan warning that investors need to brace for a $20 stock price fluctuation over the next 11 days, and that its volatility still has room to rise further.

Mike Khouw, chief strategist at the professional options data platform OpenInterest.PRO, believes that the lower the weighting, the smaller the purchase volume by index funds, making the boost to the stock price more limited.

However, analysts at Arete Research pointed out that SpaceX's scarce public float and relatively high retail allocation mean that various ETFs and mutual funds will need to purchase "a significant portion" of the shares available for trading in the market; this supply-demand dynamic is highly self-reinforcing during an uptrend, but could also prove extremely fragile in a market reversal.

An equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets pointed out that the inclusion of SpaceX will further amplify the volatility of the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is already at a high level.

Data show that the VXN Index, which measures the implied volatility of the Nasdaq 100, has surged 43% so far this year, while the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) has risen only 8%.

Avery Marquez, head of investment strategy at Renaissance Capital, stated that SpaceX's public float is only about 5%. The low float means that any concentrated buying or selling orders can easily trigger severe share price fluctuations, leaving it even more vulnerable during downturns in market sentiment.

Historical cases show that index inclusion is not the decisive factor for stock price performance. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which was added to the Nasdaq 100 in December 2024, peaked prior to its inclusion and subsequently plummeted 81%, while Palantir, included in the same batch, continued to rise for 11 months after inclusion before hitting its peak.

SpaceX is currently in a post-listing correction phase, with its stock price down 28% from its high. Its future trajectory will depend on the tug-of-war between passive buying and post-lockup selling pressure, as well as improvements in the company's fundamentals.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.