Nvidia China Revenue Only 5%, H200 Zero Sales, Can Jensen Huang Turn the Tide Accompanying Trump to China?

Data shows that NVIDIA's revenue share from China has dropped from 26% in fiscal 2022 to 13% in fiscal 2025, and fell further to around 5% by the third quarter of 2025. Jensen Huang has publicly stated that NVIDIA's share of the AI accelerator market in China "has dropped to near zero."

Each tightening of U.S. export controls has dealt a heavy blow to the stock price:

On October 17, 2023, the Biden administration issued new regulations on AI chip exports to China, restricting A800/H800 models; NVIDIA fell over 7% intraday and closed down 4.7%, wiping out $53.5 billion in market value.

On April 15, 2025, the U.S. government notified NVIDIA that exports of H20 chips to China would require indefinite license applications; NVIDIA recognized a $5.5 billion loss, and the stock fell over 6% in after-hours trading.

On August 27, 2025, the fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings report confirmed no H20 chips were sold to Chinese customers during the quarter, with the stock falling approximately 5% after hours.

On December 8, 2025, conditional approval was granted for the export of H200 chips to China, with conditions including the U.S. government taking a 25% cut of sales revenue, sales being limited to "specifically approved customers," and each export shipment requiring a separate license application; however, no revenue has been generated in nearly six months.

Sources say the reasons include slow U.S. approvals, but more critically, procurement channels for Chinese customers have not been established, and an increasing number of Chinese companies are reluctant to build their core computing power on American chips over the long term.

Domestic Chinese AI chips are rapidly filling the void. According to industry research, shipments of domestic AI accelerators in China reached 1.65 million units in 2025, accounting for a record 41% market share based on shipment volume.

Of these, Huawei's Ascend series shipped 812,000 units, representing nearly 50% of domestic shipments and approximately 20% of the overall market. TrendForce forecasts that the market share of domestic AI chips by shipment volume is poised to expand to around 50% in 2026.

It is worth noting that the aforementioned figures are based on shipment volume. Because the unit price of domestic chips is generally lower than Nvidia’s high-end products, the domestic market share by revenue remains significantly lower than its share by shipment volume.

Nevertheless, China's computing power supply landscape is shifting: from a past reliance on imports to a new paradigm where "indigenous chips form the foundation, supplemented by imported chips." Nvidia is no longer the sole option for computing power supply.

The antitrust investigation may be a more pragmatic agenda item for Jensen Huang’s trip. China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has initiated an investigation into Nvidia, with media reports suggesting potential fines ranging from RMB 9.8 billion to 60.8 billion. While the likelihood of these fines being realized is low, the accompanying behavioral restrictions (such as bans on bundling and limits on exclusive cooperation) could be more damaging.

Sources say Jensen Huang may communicate with Chinese authorities regarding compliance rectification and R&D investment. The market expects that if antitrust announcements include phrasing such as "active communication" or "submission of a rectification plan," it would signal that substantive progress has been made.

Despite significant challenges, NVIDIA has not completely lost the Chinese market. Its technical advantages remain clear: the efficiency of large-scale cluster interconnects, the maturity of the CUDA software ecosystem, and developer inertia are difficult to fully replace in the short term, allowing the company to maintain high unit prices and profit margins in small-volume segments of the high-end market.

Politically, Jensen Huang’s presence on the presidential aircraft signals the importance placed on him by the U.S. government. The Trump administration’s "transactional mindset" suggests that if NVIDIA can assist in reaching a broader trade agreement (such as chips for agricultural products), it may gain some flexibility.

The condition attached to the H200’s approval in late 2025—requiring 25% of revenue to be turned over—essentially transforms chip exports into a fiscal contribution to the United States. If this model is expanded to more product lines, NVIDIA could shift from being a passively restricted company into a tool within U.S. trade negotiations.

However, most current analysis suggests that the likelihood of chip exports to China being treated as a security baseline remains greater than the likelihood of them being used as a bargaining chip.

Investors should focus on the following three specific signals over the next 1-3 months:

Jensen Huang's flight was a high-profile political PR move that calmed public controversy and created an atmosphere for easing the antitrust investigation, but several substantive issues remain: export control red lines are unchanged, the logic of customers diversifying to avoid single-supplier risk remains, the market share of domestic alternatives continues to rise, and the downward trend in NVIDIA's revenue share from China has yet to stabilize.

For investors, what truly needs to be tracked is not the handshake on Air Force One, but the antitrust rhetoric, new orders, and investment commitments after the landing.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.