Nvidia China Revenue Only 5%, H200 Zero Sales, Can Jensen Huang Turn the Tide Accompanying Trump to China?

Data indicates that NVIDIA's revenue contribution from China has fallen from 26% in fiscal 2022 to 13% in fiscal 2025, sliding further to approximately 5% by the third quarter of 2025. Jensen Huang has publicly noted that NVIDIA's market share in China's AI accelerator market has "fallen to near zero."

Every tightening of U.S. export controls has dealt a significant blow to the share price:

On October 17, 2023, the Biden administration released new AI chip export control rules for China, restricting the A800/H800; NVIDIA's stock dropped over 7% intraday and closed 4.7% lower, wiping out $53.5 billion in market capitalization.

On April 15, 2025, the U.S. government informed NVIDIA that H20 exports to China would require indefinite license applications; NVIDIA recorded a $5.5 billion loss, and the stock fell more than 6% in post-market trading.

On August 27, 2025, the fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings confirmed zero H20 chip sales to Chinese customers during the period, sending the stock down approximately 5% after hours.

On December 8, 2025, the H200 received conditional approval for export to China, with requirements including a 25% revenue share for the U.S. government, sales limited to "specific approved customers," and individual license applications for every shipment; nonetheless, no revenue has been generated in the subsequent six months.

Sources stated that the reasons include slow U.S. approvals and, more critically, blocked procurement channels for Chinese customers, as more Chinese companies are hesitant to base their core computing power on U.S. chips over the long term.

Domestic Chinese AI chips are rapidly filling the void. According to industry research data, shipments of China-made AI accelerator cards reached 1.65 million units in 2025, capturing a record-high market share of approximately 41% by shipment volume.

Of this total, Huawei's Ascend shipped 812,000 units, representing nearly 50% of domestic shipments and about 20% of the overall market. TrendForce predicts that the market share of domestic AI chips by shipment volume is expected to expand to approximately 50% by 2026.

It should be noted that the aforementioned market shares are based on shipment volume. Since the unit prices of domestic chips are generally lower than Nvidia's high-end products, the domestic market share by revenue remains significantly lower than its share by shipment volume.

Nevertheless, China's computing power supply is undergoing a shift: what was once a reliance on imported chips is becoming a model where 'domestic chips provide the foundation, supplemented by imports.' Nvidia is no longer the only viable supplier of computing power.

An antitrust investigation may be the more pragmatic agenda for Jensen Huang's trip. China's State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a probe into Nvidia, which media reports say could lead to fines between RMB 9.8 billion and RMB 60.8 billion. While the actual imposition of such fines is considered unlikely, accompanying behavioral restrictions—such as prohibitions on tying and limits on exclusive partnerships—could prove more damaging.

Sources indicate that Huang may engage with Chinese authorities on matters such as compliance rectification and R&D investment. Market consensus suggests that if antitrust filings utilize phrasing like 'active communication' or 'submission of a rectification plan,' it would signal that substantive progress has been made.

Despite significant challenges, NVIDIA has not entirely lost the Chinese market. Its technical advantages remain distinct: the efficiency of large-scale cluster interconnects, the maturity of the CUDA software ecosystem, and developer inertia are difficult to fully replace in the short term, allowing the company to maintain high unit prices and profit margins for low-volume shipments in the high-end market.

Politically, Jensen Huang’s presence on the flight underscores his importance to the U.S. government. The Trump administration’s "transactional mindset" suggests that if NVIDIA can assist in brokering a broader trade agreement—such as a "chips-for-crops" arrangement—it may gain a degree of regulatory flexibility.

The condition requiring a 25% revenue remittance attached to the H200 approval in late 2025 essentially transforms chip exports into a fiscal contribution to the U.S. Treasury. If this model is expanded across more product lines, NVIDIA could transition from a passively restricted enterprise into a strategic lever in U.S. trade negotiations.

However, most current analysis suggests that the possibility of chip exports to China being viewed as a national security bottom line still outweighs the likelihood of them being used as a bargaining chip.

Investors should monitor the following three specific signals over the next 1-3 months:

Jensen Huang’s visit was a high-profile political PR move that calmed public controversy and created an atmosphere for easing the antitrust investigation; however, several substantive issues remain: export control red lines remain unchanged, the logic of customers avoiding single-supply risk persists, the domestic substitution share continues to rise, and the downward trend in Nvidia’s revenue contribution from China has yet to stabilize.

For investors, what truly needs to be tracked is not the handshake on Air Force One, but the antitrust rhetoric, new orders, and investment commitments following the landing.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.