Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Breaks 10,000 After 17-Day Rise; Deutsche Bank Warns of Global Helium Supply Chain Risks

TradingKey - The US-Iran conflict has fluctuated repeatedly in recent times. According to the latest reports, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush appeared in the Indian Ocean on the 23rd and is advancing toward the Middle East, as the deployment of three aircraft carriers simultaneously in the region takes shape. Israel has also sent a tough signal; Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated publicly on the 23rd that Israel is prepared to restart the war with Iran and is "only waiting for the green light from the U.S."

Meanwhile, Iran has formulated detailed counter-attack plans against potential military actions by the U.S. and its allies, covering a series of escalation options such as strikes on energy facilities and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although geopolitical conflicts remain at a stalemate, the three major U.S. stock indices have fully recovered their losses since the conflict began. Notably, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit record highs, with tech stocks acting as the primary force driving this recovery.

More importantly, on April 23, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index broke through the 10,000-point psychological level, marking its 17th consecutive day of gains—the longest winning streak in history—with a cumulative rise of over 41%. Since the start of the conflict on February 28, the index's cumulative gain has reached 24%.

[Source: TradingView]

The constituents of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index cover nearly all core giants in the global semiconductor supply chain, including NVIDIA , Broadcom , AMD , Intel , Qualcomm , TSMC , Applied Materials , Micron , ASML and 30 other U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. It is widely hailed by the market as one of the most important indicators of the global semiconductor industry cycle.

Looking at the past 20 trading days, among the constituents, Credo Technology led the pack with a peak cumulative gain of 78.56%, while ASML lagged at the bottom of the constituents with a 1.72% gain. During the same period, Marvell Technology's cumulative gain reached 68.25%, Intel rose 4.15%, AMD rose 38.62%, Broadcom rose 31.72%, Micron rose 26.13%, NVIDIA rose 11.73%, and TSMC rose 10.04%.

Deutsche Bank analysts stated in their latest report that this market uptrend is primarily supported by core companies' better-than-expected earnings and optimistic business outlooks, and global capital expenditure (CapEx) for major firms is expected to exceed $700 billion this year, providing solid fundamental support. Persistent demand for AI infrastructure helped TSMC's quarterly revenue reach a record high, with profits maintaining high double-digit growth. The equipment sector is also thriving, as ASML's order intake grew significantly and demand for high-end lithography machines remains tight, providing strong evidence that the semiconductor industry's upward cycle is continuing.

These multiple tailwinds continue to reinforce the high-growth demand logic led by AI, causing earlier market fears of an AI bubble to gradually dissipate. Risk appetite has rebounded, with capital reallocating to high-volatility tech and semiconductor sectors, and the sector's popularity continues to recover.

Deutsche Bank analysts warned that despite the strong momentum, underlying risks cannot be ignored. The semiconductor industry faces two core challenges: geopolitical risk exposure and high capacity concentration in Taiwan. The recent conflict with Iran has further exposed a critical vulnerability in the helium supply chain.

The firm further noted that helium is a core raw material for chip production, with no current alternatives for certain key processes, and major producer Qatar's helium transport is highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. Early in the conflict, fears of production shutdowns triggered panic, causing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to plunge 15.7% in a single month before a strong rebound. While short-term panic has subsided, the event fully highlights the fundamental vulnerability of the global semiconductor supply chain.