SpaceX's Upcoming IPO Presents a Significant Opportunity to Buy ASTS Stock

SpaceX's recent news is not just that they're intending to go public; rather, the news is how huge and high-profile that IPO could be. On April 1, 2023, Reuters reported that SpaceX has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO with a potential valuation of more than $1.75 trillion; in addition, they have held analyst meetings and are working through the process of completing the largest stock market IPO ever done. Further reports by Reuters on April 7 suggest that the IPO will receive such a large share of investor interest that it will overshadow other IPOs for an extended period.

What is very important for ASTS, and what sets SpaceX apart from other private tech companies, is that they also own and operate Starlink, the direct-to-device and satellite broadband network that will catapult the space-connected communications industry into the mainstream public markets. In a follow-up report dated April 10, Reuters indicated that in 2025, SpaceX reported a loss of approximately $5 billion on revenues of over $18.5 billion. Therefore, the value of the IPO appears to be based on long-term strategic value and market strength, rather than short-term earnings. Because of this market situation, investors tend to seek out the most comparable public-market peers whose exposures are equal to SpaceX's. ASTS is one of the few names that fits that description.

One of the most obvious advantages of the SpaceX IPO to ASTS is that it lends credibility to the satellite-to-phone and space-based connectivity market. When one of the world's most valuable privately held companies creates an IPO around a theme (in this case) the likelihood of that theme being re-priced across the sector increases significantly . Recently, Reuters mentioned that some smaller IPOs' price movements benefited via a tag-along with the larger IPO(s) dominating attention; a similar principle can apply to current public companies trading within this sector. In order for investors to make comparisons between ASTS and SpaceX they do not need to be direct comparables; they simply need to have confidence that the entire category is big enough for multiple successful companies to emerge from it.

Conversely, at the same time, SpaceX represents a competitive threat to ASTS because Starlink has achieved scale, launch capabilities and developed a brand recognition that ASTS currently lacks. For these reasons the SpaceX IPO can be viewed as both a bullish driver and a bearish driver for ASTS. On one hand, a successful SpaceX offering should generate additional interest in the sector thereby providing further validation of the market; on the other hand, potential investors will be reminded of just how strong the competition is. Therefore, while there are opportunities presented to ASTS from the SpaceX IPO, these opportunities are not without risk.

ASTS reported 2025 total revenues were $70.9m, with $54.3m generated during Q4 only. Other major contributors to these revenues were that a high volume of revenue from Gateway hardware sales, US Government milestones, and consulting services. It is important to note that revenues from commercial SpaceMobile service are not yet included in financial statements as that service has not yet been launched.

There remains a significant loss profile associated with ASTS' 2025 operations having reported net losses attributable to Common Stockholders of $341.9m during the year. The company's balance sheet is however significantly strengthened compared to previous periods of development, reporting approximately $2.8b of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of the end of 2025. Furthermore, the Company raised an additional $1,057.5mm in net proceeds from the issuance of convertible notes in February 2026. Additionally, the Company has approximately $1.2b of remaining performance obligations which continue to provide investors with an understanding of future revenues being recognized, despite still being far from achieving profitability.

ASTS has elected not to target consumers directly to begin with. According to filings, ASTS will be pursuing a model of revenue-sharing and wholesale via partnership with Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). The company has defined agreements with major MNOs, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Saudi Telecom and has a multitude of other partnerships established with over 50 additional MNOs globally. These combined relationships will give ASTS access to around 3 billion potential subscribers. This is the basis of the bull case - if ASTS is able to establish the operation at scale then it will represent a considerable amount of market size, without having to create a consumer facing brand.

However, the network still needs to be built, launched, received regulatory approval, and proven operational capability. Currently, ASTS has plans to use the initial 25 BlueBird satellites to provide non-continuous service on a limited basis, with 45 to 60 additional Block 2 satellites to provide continuous coverage in key locations, and ultimately about 90 satellites. Therefore, the stock is still correlated to technical events and regulatory approvals versus financial performance; therefore, typically in that type of company, the market will anticipate launch, contract, and coverage achievements prior to earnings becoming relevant to the stock price.

For 2025, ASTS was a leading gainer on the stock exchange, according to the Reuters affiliate reporting. Over the course of the year, it gained 244%, making it one of the top performing stocks in the marketplace as of now at $91.60, getting up to $129.80 through 2022 before retracing approximately 50% of this yearly progress to date until today. This indicates separate things - that people still want the stock and are willing to pay something for it, but that they demand further evidence of value as well.

The price reduction doesn't necessarily indicate an incorrect valuation by shareholders. It could also indicate that the stock had increased too rapidly by outpacing current business metrics for 2025; hence, in 2023 stockholders want documented results of commercial rollout. This is usually to be expected with companies like ASTS that are just developing. A better question might be whether the current price accounts for the legitimate option value within the business, particularly should there be renewed focus on the space connectivity market with any SpaceX IPOFor 2025, ASTS was a leading gainer on the stock exchange, according to the Reuters affiliate reporting. Over the course of the year, it gained 244%, making it one of the top performing stocks in the marketplace as of now at $91.60, getting up to $129.80 through 2022 before retracing approximately 50% of this yearly progress to date until today. This indicates separate things - that people still want the stock and are willing to pay something for it, but that they demand further evidence of value as well.

The price reduction doesn't necessarily indicate an incorrect valuation by shareholders. It could also indicate that the stock had increased too rapidly by outpacing current business metrics for 2025; hence, in 2023 stockholders want documented results of commercial rollout. This is usually to be expected with companies like ASTS that are just developing. A better question might be whether the current price accounts for the legitimate option value within the business, particularly should there be renewed focus on the space connectivity market with any SpaceX IPO or another time.

If ASTS is able to successfully build technical credibility into commercial credibility, then incomes from ASTS could be increased by 2026. The company has improved its balance sheet over the past year, as well as established customer relationships and established a path to recognized revenue as a result of the remaining obligations. In addition, the anticipated SpaceX IPO has the potential to enhance ASTS's circumstances by increasing the interest from investors in satellite connectivity and further elevating ASTS's status as one of the few publicly-traded companies providing direct exposure to this investment theme. As the market recognizes the potential of a successful deployment, stock prices can be positively impacted even prior to achieving full generating capacity for the business.

The more cautious view of this scenario is that 2026 remains an important milestone year, but not a guarantee year. ASTS will remain before various milestones (pre-scale), and therefore its ultimate valuation will be determined by several factors: success of satellite launches; regulatory approval; ability to provide adequate coverage; and rate at which the mobile operators turn the service into customer usage. Therefore, while the ultimate positive scenario is valid, the future positive scenario is still just that, and therefore does not provide for current revenue.

ASTS has two major risks associated with it. One of them would include the possibility that it may not be able to generate enough revenue for the amount of capital it has to spend on space infrastructure (satellites, ground stations, etc.). The annual report states that ASTS will need a significant amount of capital to fund future projects (satellite, launch, ground system and Ligado spectrum transaction) and that future performance is dependent upon obtaining more funding and regulatory approvals. In addition, ASTS will likely have operating losses and net losses for some time after it starts generating revenue. This is the nature of a space infrastructure business.

The second major risk is competition. ASTS's filings specifically state that they plan on competing with other companies that provide wireless communication services, satellite operators, and new technology that increases the ability to provide wireless service on the ground. SpaceX is a typical example of this competitive threat through Starlink. Even though the SpaceX IPO may generate attention for the entire industry, it also creates an increased recognition of how much larger and better-capitalized a competitor like SpaceX is compared to ASTS.

Overall, ASTS is a stock that should be investigated sooner rather than later. The firm is still somewhat in its infancy, but it has moved from merely being a concept into revenue generation, existing carrier partnerships, improved financial position, and a clear path to deployment. The potential IPO of SpaceX may not mitigate the execution risks associated with ASTS, however it may elevate not only the entire satellite connectivity space, but also the ability for the market to assign a valuation to ASTS as a valid strategic asset as opposed to a speculative idea.

For those investors who are willing to accept volatility, as well as understand that this is a long-term progression, ASTS could be a reasonable opportunity to purchase during times of weakness. ASTS remains susceptible to launch risk, dilution, and competition; but given an improved financial profile, along with a macro catalyst (being the upcoming SpaceX IPO), ASTS' current state of affairs is more attractive than it would have been had there not been an impending IPO of SpaceX. Simply stated, while the IPO of SpaceX does not create safety for ASTS, it does increase the attractiveness of the stock.