The Week Ahead: US January Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI Data Arrive; Coinbase, Coreweave Report Earnings

TradingKey - U.S. stocks fell before rebounding last week, with the S&P 500 Software & Services Index plunging 15% in just over a week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 50,000 mark for the first time. Investors will focus on the recently volatile AI application and software sectors as well as key technology companies; results from Applovin (APP) and Unity Software (U) are in the spotlight, along with crypto-related stocks Coinbase (COIN) , Robinhood (HOOD) which will also report earnings this week. In terms of macro data, due to the recent brief U.S. government shutdown, non-farm payroll data has been postponed to February 11. Next week will see a rare cluster of both the U.S. NFP report and CPI data.

Major Events Preview

U.S. Earnings Season Continues: Focus on Coinbase, Coreweave, and Others

Following last week's tech sell-off, investors will focus on the volatile AI application and software sectors as well as key tech firms. Earnings from companies like Applovin and Unity Software will be closely watched. Traditional sector stocks such as McDonald's (MCD) , Coca-Cola (KO) , T-Mobile US (TMUS) , BP (BP) and others will report results, while pharmaceutical giants AstraZeneca (AZN) , Moderna (MRNA) will also release their earnings reports.

The Goldman Sachs team expects S&P 500 companies to grow earnings by 12% year-over-year in 2026. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the consensus expectation among Wall Street analysts is 13.5%.

U.S. Non-farm Payrolls and Inflation Data to be Released Simultaneously

Due to the recent brief U.S. government shutdown, non-farm payroll data has been postponed to February 11, creating a rare phenomenon this week where the U.S. NFP report and CPI data are released together. As long as the results are better than investors' fears, they could help revive market confidence following the recent wave of panic selling.

Market expectations for January non-farm payroll growth currently range from 60,000 to 80,000; a figure lower than this would ignite discussions about rate cuts. For CPI data, focus should be on seasonal price hike pressures at the start of the year. A combination of "weak employment + strong inflation" would pose the greatest market risk.

Japan Election Results Market Impact: Yen Hits Two-Week Low, Japanese Stocks Reach Record Highs

According to the latest vote counts, the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives election held on February 8, maintaining control. This means that Japan's volatile financial markets must now contend with a government continued to be led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The "Takaichi Trade" is expected to make a comeback in the yen, equity, and bond markets.

Kota Suzuki, a strategist at Nomura Asset Management, stated: "The foundation of the Takaichi government will become more solid, making it easier for expectations regarding economic policies to take shape. This is because there is no longer a need to actively seek cooperation from opposition parties."

Selected Economic Data

Tuesday: U.S. December Retail Sales MoM

Wednesday: U.S. January Non-farm Payrolls (Seasonally Adjusted)

Friday: U.S. January CPI YoY (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Selected Events This Week

Tuesday: ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers a speech

Tuesday: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (2027 FOMC voter) delivers a speech

Wednesday: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voter) delivers a speech

Major Earnings This Week

Monday: BP, Robinhood

Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO), McDonald's (MCD)

Thursday: Rivian, Coinbase

Friday: Moderna (MRNA)