CFTC Battles for Prediction Market Dominance, How Long Until Polymarket Returns to the U.S. Market?

TradingKey - Polymarket seeks to return to the U.S. market, with approval possible as early as August this year.

According to Bloomberg reports on April 28 that Polymarket, the world's largest prediction platform, is seeking support from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to lift a four-year ban and approve the re-entry of its core exchange into the United States. However, will the CFTC approve Polymarket's application?

In January 2022, Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC and prohibited from providing services to U.S. users. In November 2025, the ban on Polymarket was partially eased, with the CFTC allowing it to operate a regulated intermediate trading platform, Polymarket US, though the high-liquidity international version remains blocked.

Before considering whether the CFTC is willing to lift the ban, it must first be clarified whether it has the authority to do so. Since the beginning of 2026, various regulatory agencies in states such as New York, Arizona, Illinois, and Connecticut have been competing with the federal government for jurisdiction over prediction markets. The CFTC has subsequently filed lawsuits against these states, seeking a court ruling that it holds exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets. Currently, these lawsuits are in their preliminary stages and have not yet reached a verdict, which means that even if the CFTC agrees to lift Polymarket's ban, the platform could still face crackdowns from state governments.

Based on the CFTC's attitude toward prediction markets, it is possible for Polymarket to gain approval to return to the U.S. market. On April 27, Mike Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated at the 2026 Bitcoin Conference that the two major regulatory bodies (SEC and CFTC) are working together to build a governance system for digital assets and support the crypto industry's growth within the U.S. market. On the same day, Mike Selig posted on X, emphasizing, "The CFTC is committed to establishing a gold-standard regulatory framework for prediction markets to allow the industry to develop in a transparent and compliant environment."

However, Polymarket faces a key variable: whether the CLARITY Act can be passed. If the bill is eventually signed into law, it will provide a clearer federal legal framework for prediction markets, and the CFTC would be required to lift the ban even if it were unwilling. Conversely, if the bill is rejected, Polymarket's return to the U.S. could be hindered. Currently, the bill is in a critical window for a Senate vote, and the market generally expects that whether it is signed will be revealed this August.

If Polymarket returns to the U.S. market, prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Rothera will face an impact, and the stock prices of their underlying institutions or partners, Coinbase ( COIN) and Robinhood ( HOOD ), may come under downward pressure. During the crypto bear market phase, the cryptocurrency trading businesses of these two major trading platforms have been hard hit and are currently being sustained by prediction markets. Once this support is lost, it will be difficult for their performance to show any impressive results.