Gold Pulls Back to $4,740 While Silver Eyes $90 Is the Precious Metals Bull Run Still Alive?

Geopolitics were the main driver. The fragile US-Iran ceasefire announcement earlier this week sent both metals skyrocketing as investors suddenly got nervous, the dollar started to lose its footing, and people scrambled for the safety of precious metals. Gold traded as high as $5,000, with silver getting close to $83-$84 on the way up.

Then came the doubts creeping in. The ongoing talks in Pakistan, questions about how solid this deal really was, and a small increase in Treasury yields gave traders the perfect excuse to start taking profits. And yeah, prices dropped pretty sharply, but the fundamental drivers that pushed gold up to over $5,400 back in the spring haven't gone away.

The ceasefire uncertainty is actually a bit of both sides of the coin for metals bulls. If things fall apart, safe-haven demand shoots back up right away. If the talks are successful, a more relaxed geopolitical landscape usually means a weaker dollar and higher expectations that the Fed will cut rates - which would be good for gold and silver either way. The macro picture remains pretty supportive either way.

XAU/USD is still in a bull market at heart, even though gold struggled this week to hold above $4750. The big picture is still looking good - gold is well and truly up from its 2025 lows. The long term setup is still very much in place.

Despite some short term wobbles around the $4950-$5000 mark, gold's higher timeframes still look very bullish. The price is currently consolidating just below the $5060 resistance level - and that's a pretty big deal because it's not just any old resistance, it's a major horizontal supply zone that's also sitting right on top of the upper bound of the current gold price range.

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Weekly Outlook: Gold is looking pretty bullish above $4900, with the big job being getting above $5060. If it can stay above that level then we're looking at a big move upwards, probably to $5150+. But if it fails then we're looking at a bit of consolidation towards $4700.

Silver has an even more compelling story to tell this week than gold, and it's all because XAG/USD is still a whopping 37% down from its $120 high back in 2026, and the reasons why it got to that level in the first place have only gotten stronger since.

Silver (XAG/USD) is showing some early signs of structural recovery on the daily chart, after successfully fending off the $67.95–$72.00 demand zone. The recent bounce up from that region suggests that buyers are starting to get back in the game, with price now stabilizing around $75.90 - and just nudging above the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $75.54.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Weekly Outlook: Bullish above $73.80, and targeting $79 and $90 in the process - but if that doesn't happen then we're looking at a retest of that $72 demand zone before we can even think about continuation again.

Both metals have some pretty solid fundamentals behind them - and short term volatility can't change that.

Gold: Central banks are buying up about 70 tonnes per month, and a whopping 95% of the institutions we surveyed say they're planning to increase their reserves in 2026. On top of all that, ETF allocations are still way lower than they should be - but that institutional reallocation trade still has a long, long way to run. 

Mine supply is at record highs, but it's still not enough to meet demand - and the fact that we're seeing physical premiums in China pretty much says it all. Plus a weaker dollar and some rising expectations of rate cuts is pretty much what you want to see when you're thinking about gold.

Silver: This market is on track for its sixth straight annual supply deficit in 2026 - which is a pretty big deal when you consider that we're talking about a deficit of around 67 million ounces. It's not just about gold - industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics is what's really driving the market for silver. Roughly 50% of silver demand is industrial, and that's what sets silver apart from gold in the first place. 

Then there's retail investment demand from Asia and the Middle East - all of which is just piling on the pressure. Whereas, supply elasticity is pretty low - which is just to say that silver is mostly a by-product of copper and zinc mining, and that means production can't respond very quickly to price signals.

The macro calendar's looking pretty busy for next week, with a whole bunch of potential catalysts lined up - including:

• Tuesday, April 14 US Producer Price Index (PPI). Hot reading pressures metals via higher yields and dollar strength. Soft reading is bullish.
• Thursday, April 16 China Q1 GDP, retail sales, industrial production. Strong Chinese data supports silver's industrial demand thesis directly.
• All week IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington. Global growth outlooks and policy signals will move the dollar and rate expectations.
• Ongoing US-Iran Pakistan talks. Any breakdown in ceasefire negotiations brings safe-haven flows back into gold immediately.

Gold at $4,748 and silver at $75.90 are not broken bull markets they are bull markets catching their breath. The ceasefire-driven profit-taking is noise against a backdrop of central bank accumulation, record ETF inflows, six consecutive silver deficits, and a dollar under structural pressure from rising rate-cut expectations.

Watch $5,060 on gold and $79 on silver. Those are the breakout triggers that confirm the next leg higher. Until then, the dip is the opportunity.